Non-oil private sector at highest performance since 2014 in January

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Derayah secures Al Olayan as cornerstone investor in upcoming IPO

Good morning, ladies and gents. We have a busy issue today as Riyad Bank is out with its data for Saudi Arabia PMI, Al Jazira Capital gauges Tasi’s performance in January, and ANB wraps up SAR 3.4 bn sukuk offerings. Let’s dive in.

HAPPENING TODAY-

Global Bankingand Markets Saudi Arabia wraps up today at the Hilton Riyadh Hotel. The two-day networking event brought together over 700 local, regional, and global banking and market leaders, with representatives from government and private sector issuers and borrowers, regulators, investors, banks, and other organizations.

WEATHER- Riyadh is looking at a high of 25°C and a low of 11°C today, while Jeddah’s mercury will peak at 31°C and hit a low of 24°C. Makkah will see a 30°C high and 21°C low.

HAPPENING TOMORROW-

#1- LIV Golf Riyadh’s season opener kicks off tomorrow at the Riyadh Golf Club and wraps up on Saturday, 8, February. Buy your tickets here.

#2- Property owners across several districts in seven cities of Al Qassim Province have until tomorrow to register their properties online through the Real Estate Registry website, according to a statement. The cities included in this round of registrations are Buraydah, Al Bukayriyah, Unaizah, Al Badayea, Riyadh Al Khabra, Al Khabra and As Sahabin, and Ar Rass.

UPDATE-

Derayah Financial secured a binding commitment from Al Olayan to subscribe to its upcoming IPO on the main market, it said in a supplementary prospectus (pdf). The move will see the IPO’s only cornerstone investor Al Olayan pre-book some 4.7 mn company shares out of a total of 49.95 mn shares on offer, representing a 1.88% stake in the company.

An investor’s stamp of approval: A cornerstone investor’s early commitment to an IPO typically signals confidence in the company’s valuation and future prospects. This encourages other investors to buy in and reduces some of the uncertainty around an offering’s success.

REMEMBER- Derayaha Financial is taking a 20% stake to Tadawul in a Regulation S-compliant IPO that would make it the first brokerage firm to hit the Saudi market. The share sale should see it raise some SAR 1.5 bn in proceeds, and would give Derayah a market cap of SAR 7.49 bn at listing.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1-Aviation regulator Gaca will allow foreign private aircraft operators to run domestic charter passenger flights starting 1 May, provided they meet regulatory requirements, state news agency SPA reports. The move comes amid efforts to promote the Kingdom as a global aviation hub while boosting competition and investment in the sector.

REMEMBER-Saudi airports received 128 mn passengers in 2024, up 15% y-o-y. Meanwhile, the number of flights grew 11% during the year to 902k flights, connecting the Kingdom to 172 destinations around the world. The private aircraft sector also grew 24% in 2024, recording 23.6k flights, SPA reported.

#2- Acwa Power is looking to expand its investment portfolio in renewable energy, green hydrogen, and water desalination to some USD 250 bn by 2030, Geo Head of Saudi Arabia at Acwa Power Hesham Tashkandi told Aleqtisadiah. The renewables giant is currently implementing investments worth USD 97 bn, 60% of which are Saudi-based, Tashkandi said.

ICYMI- Acwa is going long on green hydrogen: The company signed an MoU with Germany’s SEFE earlier this week to establish the Saudi-German Green Hydrogen Bridge, aiming to export 200k tons of Saudi-made green hydrogen annually to Europe by 2030. Another MoU with Italy’s Snam — signed last week — aims to explore a green hydrogen supply chain from the Kingdom to Europe.

#3- PIF-backed Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Company (Salic) currently boasts an investment portfolio worth SAR 27 bn, up from SAR 5 bn in 2019, the company’s CEO Sulaiman Al Rumaih told Aleqtisadiah on the sidelines of the Saudi Fisheries Exhibition. Salic has invested in 14 projects distributed across eight countries, with a focus on grains, meat, poultry, and rice, providing 1.6 mn tons of food commodities to the local market every year, Al Rumaih added.

IN CONTEXT- The Kingdom nearly doubled its poultry production over the past decade as part of a push for food self-sufficiency and to address an 80% reliance on food imports that leaves the Kingdom vulnerable to shocks. Saudi Arabia’s chicken production is growing at 6% a year — one of the fastest rates in the world.

#4- Saco is shifting away from brick and mortar: The Saudi Company for Hardware (Saco) is doubling down on e-commerce retail channels, with the company growing their online sales by 60% in 2024, the company’s CEO Abdulsalam Bader told Asharq Business (watch, runtime: 6:55). The trend — which helped Saco offset declines in physical store sales and bolstered last year’s financials — has left the firm largely uninterested in expanding brick and mortar stores, Bader said.

SPORTS-

Riyadh Air and Liv Golf agreed a multi-year partnership, granting the PIF-owned airline comprehensive sponsorship and a host of exclusive benefits over the championship’s 14 global events, according to two statements (here and here). Riyadh Air will feature in on-course branding and TV placement as early as this week at the Riyadh Golf Club, where this year’s season officially tees off. No additional information was provided on the financial ticket.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It’s another morning with the foreign pages fixated on the latest from Trump: US President Donald Trump is making headlines once again for pushing for “cleaning out” Gaza.

A US takeover of Gaza? During a joint presser with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump proposed that the US take over, develop and own the Gaza Strip to turn it into “the Riviera of the Middle East.” He once again called for the forced displacement of all 2.2 mn Palestinians who call Gaza home. “Countries of interest with humanitarian hearts” could fund permanent resettlement of Gazans in Egypt, Jordan, and possibly other locations.

“They say they’re not going to accept,” he said of Egypt, Jordan, and other Arab countries, standing next to Netanyahu. “I say they will.”

Hamas was quick to reject the proposals, saying that “our people in Gaza will not allow for these plans to come to pass.” Egypt and Jordan had already rejected Trump’s earlier suggestion they take in Gazans, with Jordan’s King Abdullah heading to Washington next week to meet with Trump. (Reuters | Bloomberg | CNN | FT | NY Times)

ALSO- Trump signed a presidential memorandum ahead of the conference reinstating a “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran to curb its nuclear ambitions. The memo also includes a campaign aimed at “driving Iran’s oil exports to zero,” threatening USD 53 bn of Iranian oil exports, per 2023 estimates. As usual, Trump signalled he was open to negotiating an agreement with Iran that saves everyone the trouble. (Reuters | NY Times | CNBC)

Non-oil private sector at highest performance since 2014 in January

Non-oil sector growth in the Kingdom recorded its best performance since September 2014 in January, with the country seeing the fastest increase in total new orders since June 2011, according to Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia PMI (pdf). The seasonally adjusted headline figure inched up to 60.5, up from 58.4 in December, moving it well beyond the 50.0 mark that separates growth from contraction.

New orders soared during the month: The new orders subindex accelerated to a reading of 71.1 in January, up from 65.5 in the previous month, driven by “accommodative economic conditions” and new infrastructure projects, which helped boost customer orders and total export sales. The index saw the highest rise in new work intakes in a little under 14 years.

“Nearly 45% of firms observed higher sales volumes, attributing this growth to positive economic conditions and the acceleration of infrastructure projects. The rise in export orders further complemented domestic demand, particularly from GCC countries, reflecting effective marketing and competitive pricing strategies,” Riyad Bank Chief Economist Naif Al Ghaith said.

Purchasing and employment were also up: Firms’ purchasing activity remained positive in January, with 35% of respondents seeing an uplift in the quantity of new inputs bought. The rate of employment was also positive throughout the month, with hiring levels “rising solidly.”

A rise in input costs represented the main downside for the Kingdom: Input price inflation rose at its second-fastest in almost four-and-a-half years in non-oil firms, which many attributed to higher material prices driven by heightened demand and continuing geopolitical tensions. This, in turn, led firms to raise their output prices at the fastest pace in a year.

Strength in the non-oil sector is not expected to last very long: “In Saudi at least, we doubt that the strength in its non-oil sector will last as fiscal policy is tightened,” Capital Economics wrote in a note seen by EnterpriseAM Saudi. “We think GDP growth will accelerate this year as oil output cuts are unwound, but activity in the non-oil sector is likely to soften on the back of a turn to fiscal consolidation,” Capital Economics’ James Swanston wrote in a separate note.

Meanwhile, the World Bank expects “robust activity in the non-oil sector — especially in services — as well as higher oil production and exports,” the bank said in its latest Global Economic Prospects report.

Driving growth amid Opec+’s oil cuts until April is “a high level of Vision 2030-related investment and socio-economic reforms,” which will represent the key drivers for non-oil growth in the Kingdom, Goldman Sachs Group’s MENA Economist Farouk Soussa told Bloomberg last week.

Non-oil businesses remain positive over the outlook for the year: Saudi firms remain highly optimistic for the year, with businesses expecting to see sustained growth in demand and supportive market conditions throughout 2025. This has reflected in the Kingdom’s employment trends — with companies expanding their workforces to meet growing demand — as well as in supply chain improvements and higher purchasing activity among businesses.

REFRESHER ON LAST YEAR’S NON-OIL ACTIVITY- Non-oil private sector activity grew at the slowest clip in two years in January 2024, with the first PMI reading of last year clocking in at 55.4 before picking up to 57.2 in February, and maintaining momentum through to April (57.0). The pace of expansion gradually decelerated from May (56.4) to July (54.4), as demand softened and competition intensified, before recovering in August (54.8) and gaining further traction in September (56.3) and October (56.9). Finally, the headline figure peaked in November (59.0), before slowing in December (58.4), despite a record pick-up in sales and new orders.

The story was also picked up by Reuters.

Tasi starts 2025 strong with a 17.9% monthly gain in turnover; real estate leads growth and foreign investments surge

Tadawul’s benchmark index Tasi saw its turnover jump 17.9% m-o-m, closing January 2025 at SAR 140.9 bn, with an average daily trading value of SAR 6.4 mn, according to AlJazira Capital’s Saudi & Global Markets Review (pdf). The banking sector accounted for the lion’s share of turnover during the month at 16.2%. Tasi closed January at 12.4k points, marking a 3.2% m-o-m increase.

Real estate stocks recorded the highest m-o-m growth: Seventeen out of the 21 Tasi sectors recorded a positive m-o-m performance in January, with real estate logging the highest growth rate at 12.7%, followed by commercial services with a 9% increase.

ICYMI- Foreign investors can now directly buy shares and convertible debt instruments in Tadawul-listed real estate companies with assets in Makkah and Madinah under a new regulatory update issued by the Capital Market Authority last week.

Top gainers: Nice One was the top gainer during January, with its share adding 60.6%, followed by Almoosa Health (+33.4%), Thimar (+30.7%), Jabal Omar (+28.4%), and Al Mawarid (+28.1%).

In the red: Amongst the worst-performing stocks last months were the National Company for Learning & Education (-11.2), Chemanol (-10.5), Bupa Arabia (-10.1), Amak (-7.3), and Riyad REIT (-7.1).

Al Rajhi tops charts in turnover: Al Rajhi saw the highest turnover by the end of January, reaching SAR 8.51 bn. It was followed by Nice One (SAR 5.14 bn), and Aramco (SAR 4.7 bn). Alinma (SAR 4.1 bn) and Almoosa Health (SAR 3.86 bn) rounded out the top five most traded stocks for the month.

REMEMBER- The market has already seen a strong start to 2025 with the IPOs of Almoosa Health and Nice One at the turn of the year. “Nice One can be considered the first Saudi unicorn, opening the door for more players to take the initiative and list,” SNB Capital’s Head of Investment Banking Zaid Ghoul told Zawya earlier this month.

Foreign funds are flooding in: Foreign ownership in Tadawul continued to rise in January, with qualified foreign investors (QFIs) holding 10.2% of total free-float ownership, up from 10.04% in December 2024. Net inflows from foreign investors came in at SAR 2.6 bn last month, while local institutional investors contributed SAR 2.2 bn. Among individual stocks, Extra recorded the largest monthly increase in foreign ownership (+2.72% m-o-m), while MESC saw the biggest decline, shedding 2.21% of its QFI ownership by the end of the month. Local retail investors and GCC investors drove net outflows of SAR 3.86 bn and SAR 0.9 bn, respectively.

Are investors optimistic about future growth? The overall P/E ratio of Tasi stood at 24.3x (excluding Aramco), with Saudi Advanced Industries (SAIC) and ANB Bank being the lowest at 6.7x and 8.7x respectively.

SOUND SMART- A high P/E ratio indicates that a stock is expensive relative to its earnings, often reflecting investor optimism about future growth. It suggests that investors are willing to pay a premium, anticipating higher profits ahead. However, it can also signal overvaluation if the stock price is too high compared to its actual earnings potential.

TASI IN 2024- Tasi ended last year with a slight 0.6% uptick. Capital goods (+52.8%) and utilities (+38.6%) topped sectoral gains, while energy (-14.8) and consumer staples (-13.5%) were lagging behind.

ANB wraps up SAR 3.4 bn sukuk offerings + Ma’aden plans USD-denominated issuance

It’s a busy day in local debt markets this morning, as ANB wraps its 3.4 bn sukuk offerings, and Ma’aden announces plans for USD-denominated trust certificates.

#1- The Arab National Bank (ANB) raised SAR 3.35 bn via the private placement of a SAR-denominated sukuk offering, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The offering saw 3.35k sukuk sold at a 6.2% annual return, with a SAR 1 mn buy-in minimum. Subscriptions kicked off on Thursday, 16 January and continued until Monday, 27 January.

More on the offering: The sukuk are perpetual, meaning they have no fixed maturity date. However, they may be redeemed in certain cases. The issuance falls under ANB’s SAR 11.25 bn additional tier 1 capital sukuk program, with proceeds allocated to supporting the bank’s capital base and covering its general corporate expenses.

ADVISORS- HSBC Saudi Arabia and ANB Capital were tapped as joint lead managers for the issuance.

#2- Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma’aden) plans to issue USD-denominated trust certificates under its international trust certificate issuance program, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The proceeds will be allocated to covering its general business activities.

The details: The issuance is expected to take place through a special-purpose vehicle and will be offered to eligible local and foreign investors. The size and offering terms have yet to be determined based on market conditions. The offer is subject to approval from regulatory authorities.

ADVISORS- Citigroup Global Markets, HSBC Bank, Al Rajhi Capital, BNP PARIBAS, GIB Capital, JP Morgan Securities, Natixis, Saudi Fransi Capital, SNB Capital, and Standard Chartered were tapped to be joint lead managers.

ALSO- Ma’aden is ramping up its copper search: Ma’aden plans to spend USD 2.5 bn annually to expand its phosphate and gold operations over the next five to six years, the mining giant’s CEO Bob Wilt told Semafor. This comes as the company pivots more towards local copper exploration, aiming to spend 72% of its budget on the metal, Wilt added.

ALSO ON OUR DEBT WATCH-

National Environmental Recycling Co. (Tadweeer) secured a SAR 170 mn Sharia-compliant facility from Saudi Awwal Bank, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. The 36-month facility — with a 15-month grace period and promissory note security — will fund a SAR 45 mn guarantee and SAR 90 mn in bridge financing, with SAR 35 mn allocated for working capital.

MEANWHILE- Homegrown fintech platform Forus lined up a USD 60 mn securitized debt facility with London-based investment management firm Fasanara Capital, according to a statement released last week. The funding will help Forus scale up its operations and become a leading non-bank lender to SMEs in the Kingdom. The platform has provided over USD 390 mn in working capital to more than 400 local SMEs since its launch in 2020, the statement adds.

vminds.ai raises “six-figure” investment in pre-seed funding round

Homegrown AI crowdsourcing platform vminds.ai closed a “six-figure” pre-seed funding round led by an undisclosed group of angel investors, marking the app’s official launch, according to a press release (pdf). The product is now available for individual users, with the launch of the app’s corporate platform slated for this year’s third quarter, the statement said.

Where will the money go? The AI platform will use the raised funds to support its second and third stages of growth, founder and CEO Ahmed Al Mashhadi told EnterpriseAM Saudi. The second stage will allow users to develop individually-crafted “workflows” by choosing and integrating from among the hundreds of AI tools available on the platform to execute select tasks. Users can then monetize their workflows by leasing them to other users via the app for a subscription fee. The third and final stage entails the development of personalized AI experts, which are trained across different tasks, and can be hired through the app at an hourly rate, Al Mashhadi added.

More projects in the pipeline: Veem Solutions, owner and operator of vminds.ai, is currently working on other AI-powered solutions, including products for marketing analytics and user-generated content, Al Mashhadi told us.

About vminds.ai: Founded by Al Mashhadi (LinkedIn), the platform compiles an extensive host of popular AI tools under one platform, including DeepSeek, Gemini and OpenAI, among others. vminds.ai is currently enrolled in Nvidia and Microsoft’s startup program, and its parent company Veem Solutions is a graduate of Aramco-backed Wa’ed Entrepreneurship Center.

ALSO FROM STARTUP LAND-

Egypt-born fintech startup Khazna raised USD 16 mn in a pre-series B round, with participation from both established and recent Saudi, Egyptian, and international investors, including Sanad fund for MSMEs, ANB Seed Fund, Aljazira Capital, Khwarizmi Ventures, Nclude, ICU Ventures, Quona, Speedinvest, and Disruptech Ventures, according to a press release (pdf). Proceeds from the round will go towards expanding Khazna’s Saudi footprint and pursuing a digital banking license in Egypt

About Khazna: Established in 2020 by Omar Saleh (Linkedin), Ahmed Wagueeh (Linkedin) and Fatimah El Shenawy (Linkedin), the fintech targets underbanked Egyptians with limited access to formal financial services such as general credit, BNPL, and bill payments.

ALSO- Egyptian CNC machine manufacturing startup Simplex secured USD 13 mn in an investment round led by the National Industrial Development Center, to establish a 20k sqm CNC factory in Riyadh, according to a press release (pdf). The Factory is expected to begin operations in 1Q 2026. The factory’s production capacity is yet to be determined.

Cabinet approves the transfer of licensing authority for accounting and other professions

The council of ministers authorized the transfer of licensing authority for the professions of accounting, auditing, non-securities financial consulting, zakat and tax services, and accounting services from the Commerce Ministry to the Saudi Organization for Chartered and Professional Accountants, state news agency SPA reports. Cabinet also approved a draft cooperation agreement with the World Economic Forum on minerals.

Also approved at the weekly meeting:

Mutual exemptions for short term residence visas for diplomatic, special and service passport holders between the Kingdom, Tajikistan and Azerbaijan;
An MoU on Islamic affairs with Tanzania;
An MoU with Pakistan to coordinate investigations on money laundering and terrorism financing;
A cooperation agreement with Qatar for the exchange of personal data and information for security purposes;
Two MoUs on social development with Qatar and Kuwait;
An MoU on healthcare cooperation with Cuba;
An MoU with the Maldives on airports and seaplanes.

Bank Albilad’s net income up 18.5% in 2024

It’s a calmer day on the earnings front, as Bank Albilad published its 2024 results, while Argaam reported a snapshot of Umm Al Qura’s earnings ahead of IPO.

BANK ALBILAD-

Bank Albilad’s net income grew 18.5% y-o-y in 2024 to SAR 2.8 bn, driven by a 7% increase in total operating income at SAR 5.7 bn and a 4% fall in total operating expenses, the lender said in a disclosure to Tadawul. Bank Albilad’s total income from financing rose 13% y-o-y during the period to SAR 7.1 bn, while total income from investments increased 15.7% to SAR 1.5 bn.

UMM AL QURA FOR DEVELOPMENT AND CONSTRUCTION-

PIF-backed Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction came out of red territory in 3Q 2024, logging SAR 116.9 mn in net income compared to a net loss of SAR 41.3 mn during the same quarter last year, according to an earnings report Argaam says it has seen. Meanwhile, revenues recorded SAR 266.7 mn during the period.

In 9M 2024, the company recorded a SAR 309.1 mn bottomline, up from SAR 6.7 mn y-o-y. Meanwhile, revenues increased to SAR 1 bn during the same period from 647.2, driven by land plot sales worth SAR 1.1 bn.

ICYMI- The Makkah-based developer is taking a 9.1% stake to Tadawul’s main market, with some 130.8 mn in newly-issued shares up for grabs. While no official details have been provided so far on the timeline or potential value of the IPO, previous reports suggested that the IPO “could raise a few hundred mn USD.”

Dividends on the way? Umm Al Qura plans to distribute dividends to shareholders within two to three years after its IPO, as Masar Makkah’s seven hotel towers and two malls begin generating returns following their completion in 2026, CFO Saeed Al-Ghamdi told Asharq Business. Projected revenues from the project will also help the company pare down its outstanding debts, which stood at SAR 10 bn as of 3Q 2024.

Jazan Economic City to host SAR 2 bn aquaculture hub from Neom’s Topian

INVESTMENT WATCH-

The Royal Commission for Jubail and Yanbu inked an agreement with Neom’s Topian to establish a SAR 1.9 bn aquaculture project in Jazan Special Economic Zone, according to a post on X. The initiative will span some 100k sqm and field a production capacity of 10k tons a year while creating 120 new jobs.

Topian? Neom launched the food company back in December 2023, aiming to develop sustainable food solutions with a focus on climate-resistant agriculture, regenerative aquaculture, innovative foods, nutrition, and sustainable supplies and ESG.

REMEMBER- Neom also launched a joint venture with Tabuk Fisheries, dubbed Topian Aquaculture JV, in February of last year with the aim of developing the largest fish hatchery in the Mena region by the end of 2024. The initiative was originally set to have a capacity of 42 mn fingerlings, and marine-pen production facilities with a targeted output of 20k tonnes of finfish annually.

M&A WATCH-

Egypt’s Logic Holding nabs majority stake in Nexel to boost Saudi presence: Cairo-born management consulting group Logic Holding acquired a majority stake in Dubai-headquartered management consulting Nexel Partners for an undisclosed sum, according to a press release (pdf). While the exact size of Logic’s ownership in Nexel was not disclosed, the acquisition plays right into the company’s growth plans across key markets in the region. Nexel also has offices in Riyadh and Cairo.

Eyeing Saudi growth: “Logic will prioritize expanding its Saudi Arabian footprint, capitalizing on the Kingdom’s rapid digitalization, before scaling across the Gulf. This targeted approach ensures the firm meets escalating demand while delivering integrated, future-ready solutions,” the release read.

LOGISTICS-

Gaca has inaugurated Saudi’s first Air Cargo Security Control Center in Riyadh, the authority said in a statement. The newly established center represents a unified platform that will enhance supply chain security through remote inspection, surveillance, and real-time decision-making utilizing the Washaj platform. The facility will run 24/7, and employ IoT and risk analytics to monitor security across 40 cargo agencies in four regions.

REAL ESTATE-

NHC set to have a new platform for connecting its contractors and vetted suppliers: Digital procurement software developer Penny Software signed an agreement with the National Housing Company (NHC), and virtual building materials industrial park Watad to develop a digital procurement platform, Supply Pro, to facilitate connection between NHC contractors and vetted suppliers, according to a LinkedIn post. The platform aims to reduce operational costs, speed up processes, and enhance decision-making. No timeline or investment ticket was disclosed.

FINANCIAL SERVICES-

Global payment and compliance solutions provider Eastnets will be offering Swift payments solutions in Saudi Arabia through its newly-launched Swift Service Bureau in the Kingdom, it said in a statement. The Eastnets KSA Service Bureau will be built on Google Cloud and will comply with the Kingdom’s data sovereignty and privacy laws, as well as global standards such as Swift CSP and ISO 20022.

TELECOMS-

Etihad Etisalat (Mobily) successfully landed the 10-km Africa-1 submarine cable in Duba, according to a press release. The advanced cable — set to go online early next year — has a 96 Tbps capacity and is set to improve broadband connectivity and support 5G, AI, and cloud services across Africa, the Middle East, Asia, and Europe. Mobily is participating in the cable project with a consortium of eight parties.

Uncertainty of Trump presidency pushes US Fed to rule out pre-emptive rate actions

To cut, or not to cut is becoming an increasingly difficult question to answer in Trump’s America. Although Trump has only been in the Oval Office for a meager 16 days, his plethora of executive orders, pledges of incoming tariffs, and threats to close economic allies have disrupted the forecasts of economists and policymakers alike. The US Federal Reserve is no different, with San Francisco Fed Head Mary Daly telling the New York Times that any pre-emptive interest rate moves are off the table until the “scope, magnitude and timing” of the new presidency’s actions and their effect on the economy are clearer.

The Fed is focused on seeing the wood from the trees, trying to gauge the combined effect of the new administration’s policies, instead of reacting to each and every move — or a late-night tweet — from the presidency. “If a policy change is going to spur growth, which ultimately pushes down inflation, at the same time that there’s something that picks it up a little bit, then you don’t know what the net effect is going to be until you have more details about the policy,” she explained.

“The easiest way for a policy mistake is to speculate,” she told the American paper of record. The paper only had to look back as far as the last couple of days to justify the Fed’s new approach, with a tariff showdown with Canada and Mexico, along with a looming tariff war with China, and even the EU presenting an impossible-to-predict few months ahead for the country.

For now, the Fed is sticking to its outlook from December, which projected interest rate cuts of half a percentage point in 2025, bringing the target range to 3.75-4%. But Daly emphasized that this could change, depending on how the US economy evolves. “I think we have to have a very open mind about whether fewer or more will be needed,” she said, indicating how inflation and policy shifts could complicate the central bank’s plans and projections.

The Fed has a different approach to Trump this time round, after being quick off the block to preemptively lower rates in three consecutive meetings in 2019 during Trump’s first foray into trade wars. However, the US is in a different place right now, with inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, making businesses and consumers more sensitive to price pressures.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mixed in early trading this morning, the Hang Seng is in the red, down 1.6%, and so is the Shanghai, down 0.6%, while the Kospi is up 1.0% and the Nikkei is relatively unchanged.

TASI	12,434	+0.5% (YTD: +3.3%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,549	+0.4% (YTD: +2.6%)
NomuC	31,196	+0.5% (YTD: -0.9%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	5.0% repo	4.5% reverse repo
EGX30	29,668	-0.3% (YTD: -0.2%)
ADX	9,585	+0.1% (YTD: +1.8%)
DFM	5,219	+0.7% (YTD: +1.2%)
S&P 500	6,038	+0.7% (YTD: +2.7%)
FTSE 100	8,571	-0.2% (YTD: +4.9%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,265	+0.9% (YTD: +7.5%)
Brent crude	USD 76.09	+0.2%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.22	-3.9%
Gold	USD 2,874	+0.6%
BTC	USD 96,280	-5.4% (YTD: +2.9%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 0.5% yesterday on turnover of SAR 6.3 bn. The index is up 3.3% YTD.

In the green: Kingdom (+8.9%), ACIG (+7.3%) and Care (+4.6%).

In the red: Albabtain (-4.0%), Abo Moati (-1.8%) and Alandalus (-1.8%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 0.5% yesterday on turnover of SAR 72.6 mn. The index is down 0.9% YTD.

In the green: Smile Care (+12.9%), Naas Petrol (+5.1%) and Mulkia (+4.8%).

In the red: TMC (-11.5%), Sama Water (-6.1%) and Aldawliah (-5.1%)

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

#1- RiyadhDevelopment Company’s (Ardco) shareholders greenlit a 31.6% capital increase to SAR 2.3 bn via rights issue, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. The company will issue 56.2 mn new shares to fund the acquisition of two real estate plots in Riyadh from Remat Al-Riyadh Development Company.

#2- Sedco Capital received the green light from the Capital Market Authority for the public offering of its Saudi Freestyle Artificial Intelligence Fund, the authority said in a statement.

#3- Saudi Cement is set to distribute a SAR 229.5 mn dividend payout for 2H 2024, at SAR 1.50 per share, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. Distributions will be announced at a future date.

#4- Albilad Capital will distribute SAR 469.8 mn in dividends for the Albilad Saudi Sovereign Sukuk ETF for January 2025 at SAR 0.054 per unit, according to a separate disclosure yesterday. Distributions will be executed within 10 days of the announcement.

Saudi reiterates normalization with Israel is conditional on a Palestinian state, rejects resettlement calls

A Saudi-Israeli normalization agreement is conditional on the establishment of a Palestinian state, a statement released by the Foreign Ministry said this morning. The Kingdom rejected settlement, annexation or displacement of Palestinians as “non-negotiable” with new or old US administrations, the statement added.

The statement marks the latest reiteration of Saudi’s public stance on establishing ties with Israel, after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he believed “peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia is not only feasible, I think it’s going to happen.” Netanyahu’s statements came during a press conference with US President Trump that called for resettlement of Palestinians into neighboring countries.

BACKGROUND- Talks for a normalization of ties between the Kingdom and Israel are nearing a “breakthrough,” Israel’s ambassador to the US claimed recently. Efforts led by the Biden administration last year to secure the agreement — which was originally designed to include a defense pact and cooperation on nuclear technology and AI — fell through due to the outbreak of the war in Gaza.

–

CALENDAR

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

1Q: BinDawood Holding expected to close 100% acquisition of Zahrat Al Rawdah Pharma.

1Q: Roshn expected to raise SAR 2.6 bn from an international bank.

FEBRUARY

3-5 February (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi International Marine Exhibition (SIMEC), Riyadh.

4-5 February (Tuesday-Wednesday): The RLC Global Forum, Riyadh.

4-5 February (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Markets & ESG Finance, Hilton Riyadh Hotel & Residences.

6 February (Thursday): Property registration deadline for owners in several districts of seven Qassim cities.

6-8 February (Thursday-Saturday): LIV Golf season opener, Riyadh Golf Club, Riyadh.

8 February (Saturday): Sotheby’s first auction in the Kingdom, Diriyah.

9-12 February (Sunday-Wednesday): LEAP Tech Conference, Malham, Riyadh.

9-12 February (Sunday-Wednesday): DeepFest by Leap, Riyadh.

10-12 February (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Travel Market, Riyadh International Exhibition Center.

10-13 February (Monday-Thursday): Leap 2025, the Kingdom’s premier tech investment conference.

14-15 February (Friday-Saturday): Formula E, Diriyah.

15-18 February (Saturday-Tuesday): Week one of Big 5 Construct Saudi, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center.

16-17 February (Sunday-Monday): AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, AlUla.

18 February (Tuesday): The Capital Markets Forum, KAFD Conference Centre, Riyadh.

19-20 February (Wednesday-Thursday): The Capital Markets Forum, The Four Seasons, Riyadh.

19 February (Wednesday): Derayah REIT dividend distribution.

19-21 February (Wednesday-Friday): Saudi Media Forum, Riyadh.

21-22 February (Friday-Saturday): The Saudi Cup, Riyadh.

22 February (Saturday): Founding Day.

22 February (Saturday): Dazn Boxing event: Beterbiev vs Bivol II, Riyadh.

23-27 February (Sunday-Thursday): Riyadh International Disputes Week, Hilton Riyadh Hotel Granada.

24 February (Monday):Public Sector Excellence Forum, Movenpick Hotel & Residence Riyadh.

24-25 February (Monday-Tuesday): The Riyadh International Humanitarian Forum, Riyadh.

24-27 February (Monday-Thursday): Week two of Big 5 Construct Saudi, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center.

MARCH

1-30 March: Ramadan (TBC).

18-19 March (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

31 March- 3 April (Monday-Thursday): Eid Al Fitr.

31 March (Monday): Deadline for applying to theReal Estate General Authority’s Regulatory Sandbox Program.

APRIL

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): Sports Investment Forum (SIF), Riyadh.

3-20 April (Thursday-Sunday): AFC Asian U17 Cup.

13-14 April (Sunday-Monday): Human Capability Initiative (HCI) Conference, King Abdulaziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

13-16 April (Sunday-Wednesday): EdgeX HCI, The Ritz Carlton, Riyadh.

14-16 April (Monday-Wednesday): Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah, Riyadh.

18-20 April (Friday-Sunday): Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, Jeddah,

21-24 April (Monday-Thursday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh.

22-23 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): AAM Middle East, Riyadh.

23-25 April (Wednesday-Friday): Construction and Real Estate Development Exhibition, Jazan.

25 April- 4 May (Friday-Sunday): AFC Champions League Elite Finals

MAY

6-7 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

12-15 May (Monday-Thursday): Saudi Smart Manufacturing, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

13-14 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global EV & Mobility Technology Forum, The Arena, Riyadh.

19-20 May (Monday-Tuesday): Tech-ecO-System Summit (ToSS), Riyadh.

23 May (Friday): Guns N’ Roses Show, Riyadh.

31 May-5 June (Saturday-Thursday): Hajj.

JUNE

6-9 June ( Friday-Monday): Eid Al Adha.

17-18 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

26 June (Thursday): 2024-2025 academic year ends.

30 June (Monday): Deadline for Cancellation of Fines and Exemption of Financial Penalties Initiative by the Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority (Zatca).

JULY

31 July (Thursday): Deadline for companies with SAR 2.5 mn or more in 2022/2023 revenues to integrate e-invoicing solutions with Fatoora.

29-30 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

AUGUST

5-17 August (Tuesday-Sunday): Fiba Asian Cup.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Money 20/20 Middle East, Riyadh.

17-18 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

23 September (Tuesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

28-29 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

NOVEMBER

3-9 November (Monday- Sunday): WTA Tour Finals.

24-26 November (Monday-Wednesday) The World Advanced Manufacturing & Logistics Saudi Expo, Riyadh Front Convention & Exhibition Centre, Riyadh.

27-30 November (Thursday-Sunday): The World Rally Championship (WRC), Jeddah.

DECEMBER

1-4 December (Monday-Thursday): International Conference on Nuclear Emergencies, Riyadh.

December: The Fortune Global Forum 2025, Riyadh.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

2026

UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia.

8-12 February (Sunday-Thursday): World Defense Show, Riyadh.

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

2027

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh.

The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea.

Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

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