AM Edition

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Safaniya and Zuluf fields shut down

Good morning, folks. Welcome back to another work week where the war casts a large shadow on the region.

The US bombed Iran’s Kharg Island — the country’s primary oil export hub — over the weekend. Washington claims to have only targeted military infrastructure on the island, but signaled that future strikes could target oil infrastructure unless Tehran reopens the Strait of Hormuz. We’ll be watching closely when markets open tomorrow to see how oil reacts to the news.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps countered by saying any infrastructure associated with the US may be targeted. It also urged all US industries to leave the region.

CLOSER TO HOME- Drone and missile attacks intensified on the Kingdom over the weekend, with air defenses intercepting at least two ballistic missiles targeting the Eastern Province and Prince Sultan air base — where five US refueling planes were reportedly struck on the ground on Friday. Scores of drones were also intercepted over Riyadh, the Eastern Province, and Al Kharj. Meanwhile, a drone strike in UAE’s Fujairah resulted in a now-extinguished fire and a pause on crude and fuel exports.

Iran’s diplomatic cover is looking thin (not that it matters much). The UN Security Council adopted a widely backed resolution condemning missile and drone attacks on the GCC and Jordan, while holding Tehran liable for the resulting damage and affirming the region’s right to self-defense. The vote passed 13-0, with China and Russia abstaining.

Despite the quagmire, S&P still gave us an A+. The Kingdom has the buffers to ride out disruptions and withstand the economic fallout from the Iran conflict, the ratings agency said in its latest ratings update, which we unpack in today’s big story.

Still, the conflict is throwing plans for international events into limbo, including upcoming F1 races in Saudi and Bahrain. We have more details on this in today’s news well, below.

Happening today

Gastat is set to roll out annual inflation data for February today. The Kingdom’s annual inflation rate declined to 1.8% in January from 2.1% in the previous month, falling short of market expectations of 2% and marking the lowest reading since February 2025.

Market watch

Safaniya and Zuluf halt pushes Saudi production down: Saudi slashed oil production by around 2 mn bbl / d to roughly 8 mn bbl / d after halting output from its Safaniya and Zuluf offshore fields, unnamed sources told Reuters.

Why the halt? The two fields produce heavy and medium-heavy crude, while Aramco is currently prioritizing its abundant Arab Light and Extra Light grades through the East-West pipeline, pausing medium and heavy crudes due to limited alternative export capacity, CEO Amin Nasser said last week.

It’s all part of the Yanbu pivot…: As Saudi Arabia diverts crude to its Red Sea port at Yanbu amid Strait of Hormuz restrictions, the 1.2k-km pipeline — capable of handling 7 mn bbl / d — is set to reach full capacity within days, channeling most exports to the Red Sea while about 2 mn bbl / d continue to supply domestic refineries.

… which the Kingdom is sailing at a premium: National Shipping Company (Bahri) is chartering supertankers at record rates to move crude from Yanbu, with six very large crude carriers booked recently and 24 more already en route, Bloomberg reported on Thursday, citing ship-tracking data. Bahri is paying over USD 450k per day for tanker charters — up from USD 300k pre-war.

Our take? With Brent hovering around USD 100 / bbl since the Hormuz choke, the conflict premium likely covers the transport costs, allowing the Kingdom to reap the benefits of higher oil prices that eluded the market the past year. Bypassing the Strait of Hormuz via Yanbu, even at higher transport costs, is also crucial to preserve storage buffers and prevent production shutdowns from system backups.

Setting the record straight

Aramco says a Saudi-Ukraine drone agreement is “inaccurate”: Saudi Aramco dismissed reports suggesting it is in negotiations with Ukrainian firms to purchase interceptor drones to protect its energy infrastructure, the oil giant told Reuters.

BACKGROUND- The statement came in response to media reports that emerged last week claiming Riyadh was in negotiations with Kyiv to acquire USD mns worth of Ukrainian-made interceptor drones.

Watch this space

INVESTMENT — DHL Express Europe plans to proceed with its investment plans in the Middle East despite the ongoing regional conflict, CEO Mike Parra told Sky News Arabia (watch, runtime: 4:43).

ICYMI- DHL group last year announced plans to deploy over EUR 500 mn in the region between 2024 and 2030, with a focus on the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The strategy spans the group’s four divisions — DHL Express, DHL Global Forwarding, DHL Supply Chain, and DHL eCommerce. DHL Express is expected to upgrade its hub and gateway infrastructure while expanding air fleet capacity.

Disruptions from the conflict have meant DHL has had to tweak some of its routes, with airport closures and shipping delays prompting the company to reroute cargo by flying shipments to hubs in Asia, including Kazakhstan, before transporting them by road into the Middle East, Parra said.

REAL ESTATE — The NHC isn’t slowing down: The National Housing Company (NHC) is still aiming to develop 600k housing units by 2030 despite the war’s impact on regional supply chains, CEO Mohammed Albuty told Asharq Business (watch, runtime: 2:45). The NHC has been securing supply chains and localized building material production to mitigate regional disruptions for two years, Albuty said. The company is now setting up logistics centers and industrial cities in Riyadh, the Eastern Province, and Jeddah, ensuring project materials are produced close to development sites.

Why it matters: The NHC is pushing ahead with its target despite higher construction costs created by the Strait of Hormuz’s impact on oil prices, which make up 80% of construction input costs, and logistics bottlenecks. While Red Sea developments are less affected, Riyadh and the Eastern Province face severe material shortages and lead-time uncertainty as the chokepoint restricts essential Asian imports. This shift from a demand-driven boom to supply instability has created risk-pricing uncertainty and contract delays.

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The big story abroad

The regional war dominated headlines over the weekend. US President Donald Trump has called on China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the UK to send warships to force open the Strait of Hormuz along with US naval forces. Meanwhile, Tehran claimed that the waterway is only shut to ships from “enemies.”

And in the world of AI: Tech giant Nvidia is looking to roll out a new chip specially geared to speed up AI responses in what could be a pivot from its usual one-size-fits-all approach to chipmaking. Rather than training AI models, the proposed chip will focus on “inference,” a process through which machine learning models draw conclusions from brand new data.

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DHL National Housing Company (NHC) oil watch Saudi Aramco WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

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2

ECONOMY

Our A+ rating stands firm

A vote of confidence: S&P Global Ratings kept Saudi Arabia’s A+ rating with a stable outlook despite the war.

Why? The Kingdom has the buffers to ride out disruptions and withstand the economic fallout from the Iran conflict — “our current base case is that the main threats to Saudi Arabia will begin to fade by the end of March,” the agency said in its latest ratings update.

It’s all about when this whole situation will be over: The base case assumes tensions will begin to ease by late March, allowing the government to sustain non-oil growth momentum and continue its investment drive.

The rationale

Thank our oil export routing channels: The affirmation was largely due to our ability to bypass the effectively closed Strait of Hormuz via the 1.2k-km East-West pipeline as a “critical mitigator.” The route allows the Kingdom to redirect exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, maintaining a flow of 5-7 mn bbl / d despite the maritime disruption.

Production and storage buffers add breathing room…: The Kingdom also benefits from some 30 mn bbl in domestic storage and refining capacity overseas, including in the US and Asia. Combined with 2-3 mn bbl / d of spare production capacity, this gives the government room to stabilize exports and ramp up output once hostilities ease to offset temporary supply losses, S&P said.

…and we have a more solid population: S&P noted that Saudi is less vulnerable to population displacement than its neighbors due to its large native population and comparatively lower reliance on expatriate labor.

IN CONTEXT- The affirmation comes at a volatile moment for global energy markets. Following military strikes on Iran in late February, the Strait of Hormuz — a vital artery for one-fifth of global oil shipments — has been restricted. This disruption sent Brent crude prices surging to nearly USD 120 / bbl earlier this month before settling near USD 101 on Friday.

How the war evolves will matter: A downside scenario could emerge if the conflict drags on or intensifies, particularly if energy infrastructure becomes a direct target or if government borrowing rises sharply enough to weaken public finances. Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned a prolonged blockade could have “catastrophic consequences”, as using overseas storage to meet demand is a stopgap that cannot be sustained.

On the other hand, a sustained easing of tensions and continued progress on economic diversification could open the door to a future upgrade.

In the medium-long term

Growth outlook remains solid: S&P expects real GDP growth of 4.4% in 2026, supported by higher oil production — forecast to reach 10.1 mn bbl / d — and elevated energy prices, broadly in line with the government’s 4.5% forecast for 2026. Growth is then projected to average 3.3% between 2027 and 2029. Driving the growth will be the non-oil sector, which now accounts for about 70% of GDP, buoyed by infrastructure spending, rising women’s workforce participation, and strong household consumption.

As for inflation, the SAR’s peg to the USD is expected to keep inflation contained at around 2% over the next four years despite global price pressures.

Meanwhile, the fiscal deficit is projected to reach 5.5% of GDP in 2026, averaging 4.1% between 2027 and 2029, while current account deficits are expected to average 2.3% of GDP over the same period. Borrowing is set to rise to fund diversification projects, pushing gross debt to around 38.7% of GDP by 2029. Even so, the government is expected to maintain strong net assets averaging about 42% of GDP, supported by growing non-oil revenues and continued access to domestic and international funding markets.

REMEMBER- We entered the crisis already running a wider-than-expected fiscal deficit of 5.7% of GDP for 2025, well above the budgeted 2.3%. The running deficits are framed by the government as a deliberate policy choice aimed at maintaining a countercyclical fiscal stance and safeguarding the diversification momentum.

Tags:

ECONOMY GDP Non-oil economy oil economy S&P Global

3

Tech

Did the Gulf’s subsea cable buildout just hit a wall?

Tech giant Meta reportedly halted construction on the Arabian Gulf segment of its massive 2Africa subsea cable network, as the ongoing war freezes marine operations in the region.

What happened? Alcatel Submarine Networks (ASN), the French state-owned contractor laying the fiber, has issued force majeure notices to its clients stating it cannot currently fulfill its contracts, Bloomberg reported on Thursday, citing unnamed sources. ASN’s installation vessel, the Ile De Batz, is currently stranded near Dammam.

The pause directly affects consortium partners like STC’s Center3, which had planned to bring 2Africa’s Pearls segment online as early as this year.

Why it matters

We could be looking at paralysis of the entire next-generation digital infrastructure in the Gulf. Work has reportedly also stopped on the Sea-Me-We 6 cable and Ooredoo’s FIG project.

The impact could be heavier reliance on overland infrastructure. Internet traffic can be rerouted through terrestrial cables across Saudi Arabia and Oman, telecommunications research firm TeleGeography’s Alan Mauldin told the business information service. While this keeps the region connected, regional internet speeds could slow down as capacity is stretched, Mauldin said.

The physical vulnerability of digital infrastructure is now in stark focus. Routine maintenance is virtually impossible right now as repair ships will not operate in active military zones. This means any active cables damaged by the anchors of targeted ships — a scenario we saw play out in the Red Sea last year — will be offline for a long time.

What’s next?

Even when the shooting stops, the subsea cable rollout won’t resume immediately. Intercepted Iranian missiles have left a trail of unexploded ordnance in the Gulf. The seafloor will have to be surveyed before cable layers can safely drop a single line, Mauldin said.

The persistent geopolitical risk could push tech giants to look for ways to bypass the Middle East altogether. Meta’s long-term backup plan, Project Waterworth, aims to connect the US, India, South Africa, and Brazil, though it remains years away from completion.

Tags:

Meta tech

4

Sports

No race next month

The Saudi Arabian and Bahraini Grands Prix will not be happening next month, Formula 1 said last night. The decision wipes out two early-season races and inflicts a financial blow on Formula 1.

What’s happening? F1 formally canceled the 12 April race in Bahrain and the 19 April event in Jeddah. Neither race is expected to be replaced or rescheduled as the back end of the calendar seems crowded, unnamed sources told The Athletic.

What they said: “The FIA will always place the safety and wellbeing of our community and colleagues first. After careful consideration, we have taken this decision with that responsibility firmly in mind,” head of the governing body Mohammed Ben Sulayem said. “Bahrain and Saudi Arabia are incredibly important to the ecosystem of our racing season, and I look forward to returning to both as soon as circumstances allow.”

Why it matters

It’s a substantial revenue hit for the sport. Analysts are saying the lost races can cost Liberty Formula One somewhere between USD 190-200 mn in lost revenue, alongside an estimated USD 80 mn hit to EBITDA.

Gulf states are critical financial drivers for F1: The combined hosting fees for Bahrain and Saudi Arabia are estimated to exceed USD 100 mn alone.

Teams sharing in the revenues will also be hit: McLaren CEO Zak Brown acknowledged the lost races will “probably” dent team budgets, but said the financial impact is the “least of our concerns” given the geopolitical reality.

What’s next?

The grid now faces an unexpected extended break, leaving an empty 35-day gap in the calendar between the Japanese and Miami Grands Prix. An immediate logistical headache is retrieving team freight and equipment that have been stranded in Bahrain since pre-season testing concluded.

The cancellations could also have a chilling effect on sporting event organizers in the region in the near term. The World Endurance Championship already decided earlier this month to postpone its season opener in Qatar until October.

Tags:

Bahrain Saudi sports

5

EARNINGS WATCH

Mouwasat + Cenomi Retail

Mouwasat

Mouwasat Medical Services saw its net income jump 27.3% y-o-y to SAR 822 mn during 2025, while revenue increased 11.9% y-o-y to SAR 3.2 bn, according to a Tadawul disclosure. The growth is primarily driven by higher patient visits and occupancy rates, alongside ongoing performance improvement of new subspecialties.

Cenomi Retail

Cenomi Retail’s net losses widened to SAR 505.5 mn in 2025, compared to SAR 203.5 mn in 2024, it said in a Tadawul disclosure. Revenue rose 5.3% y-o-y to SAR 5.1 bn over the same year.

The company’s net losses amounted to SAR 295 mn in 4Q 2025, compared to SAR 150.6 mn over the same period last year. Revenue increased 9.7% y-o-y to SAR 1.4 bn during the quarter, buoyed by higher retail activity during Black Friday and year-end offerings in the Kingdom and international countries, as well as growth in the F&B segment and online operations.

Tags:

Cenomi Retail EARNINGS WATCH Mouwasat Medical Services Company

6

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

AlJazira closes sukuk sale + Riyadh gets arts university

AlJazira Bank closes SAR 1.5 bn tier 1 sukuk

AlJazirah Bank raised up to SAR 1.5 bn after closing the private placement of its SAR-denominated AT1 Capital Sukuk under its SAR 5 bn program, it said in a Tadawul disclosure. The issuance comprises nearly 1.5k certificates, offering a 6.35% annual return until 12 March 2031, after which the rate resets every five years. The sukuk are perpetual but callable after five years.

It’s official — Riyadh is getting an arts university

King Salman Al Saud issued a royal decree approving the establishment of the Riyadh University of Arts, which will provide specialized education in arts and culture. The institution will possess administrative and financial autonomy and — pending the establishment of a board of trustees — will be supervised by the Culture Ministry.

We’ve been waiting for the news to become official since Culture Minister Bader bin Abdullah bin Farhan announced the plans to set up the university back in September.

Tags:

AlJazirah Bank ALSO ON OUR RADAR

7

PLANET FINANCE

Rising geopolitical risks stall GCC debt market activity

GCC borrowers have effectively frozen new USD bond and sukuk sales as regional markets price at a war premium following the outbreak of the conflict with Iran, Fitch Ratings says. After a record-breaking start to 2026, the regional pipeline is now on hold despite the total outstanding debt market hitting a record USD 1.2 tn this month — a 14% y-o-y increase.

REMEMBER- The GCC had significant funding needs going into 2026, as Gulf governments and issuers look to diversify funding channels and refinance maturing debt. Regional debt markets had been on track to break the USD 1.25 tn mark this year, up from USD 1.1 tn in issuances last year, according to Fitch Ratings’ GCC Debt Capital Markets MENA Monitor 2026 report (pdf).

Why it matters: The GCC now accounts for 40% of all emerging-market USD issuance (excluding China), making it the primary engine of EM debt. While yields widened 28-32 bps in the conflict’s first 10 days, CDS remained remarkably resilient, widening by only 13 bps for Abu Dhabi and 12 bps for Saudi Arabia, according to a Mashreq Capital note (pdf).

Real estate among the first to show signs of trouble: “While higher-quality sovereign and quasi-sovereign credits continue to trade in an orderly manner, weaker high-yield issuers, particularly in real estate, have seen a marked deterioration in market depth,” the bank subsidiary notes, citing bid-ask spreads that have widened to around 2 points versus the usual 0.5, indicating limited buyer appetite.

Sukuk continues to offer a volatility hedge: Heavy demand from Islamic banks is keeping sukuk spreads tighter than conventional bonds, giving regional issuers a pricing edge even as high-yield benchmarks — like the S&P High Yield Sukuk Index — see yields rise toward 6.61%.

Looking ahead, Mashreq Capital sees three potential scenarios: A diplomatic de-escalation could quickly unwind the war premium, tightening spreads and reopening the issuance window, according to the note. A more prolonged standoff would likely keep spreads elevated and push CDS ins. costs higher, effectively raising borrowing costs for regional issuers. In a worst-case scenario, markets could face a broader liquidity shock, forcing selloffs even in high-quality sovereign debt.

TASI	10,893	-0.5% (YTD: +3.8%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,477	-0.4% (YTD: +6.5%)
NomuC	22,370	+0.6% (YTD: -4.0%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	46,791	-0.9% (YTD: +11.9%)
ADX	9,480	-1.6% (YTD: -5.1%)
DFM	5,426	-1.7% (YTD: -10.3%)
S&P 500	6,632	-0.6% (YTD: -3.1%)
FTSE 100	10,261	-0.4% (YTD: +3.3%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,717	-0.6% (YTD: -1.3%)
Brent crude	USD 103.14	+2.7%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.13	-3.2%
Gold	USD 5,062	-1.3%
BTC	USD 70,747	-0.1% (YTD: -19.2%)
Sukuk/bond market index	917.09	-0.2% (YTD: -0.2%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	150.55	-0.4% (YTD: -0.9%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	27.19	-0.4% (YTD: +81.9%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 0.5% last Thursday on turnover of SAR 5 bn. The index is up 3.8% YTD.

In the green: Chemanol (+9.9%), Mouwasat (+8.1%), and Emaar EC (+5.9%).

In the red: Saleh AlRashed (-6.0%), Almoosa (-5.9%), and Arabian Mills (-5.0%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 0.6% last Thursday on turnover of SAR 28.2 mn. The index is down 4% YTD.

In the green: Leaf (+9.6%), First Avenue (+9.1%), and Academy of Learning (+9.1%).

In the red: Paper Home (-9.8%), AME (-9.0%), and Pro Medex (-7.8%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Riyad Bank received CMA approval for an SAR 10 bn capital hike to SAR 40 bn via a bonus share issuance, according to a Tadawul disclosure. The capital increase will be funded with SAR 5 bn from the statutory reserve and SAR 5 bn from retained earnings, with shareholders receiving one bonus share for every three shares held. The raised capital is aimed at strengthening the bank’s capital base.

Tags:

debt Fitch Fitch Ratings GCC PLANET FINANCE

CALENDAR

MARCH

18-23 March (Tuesday-Monday): Eid Al Fitr holiday (TBC).

21 March (Saturday): Fanatics Flag Football Classic, Kingdom Arena, Riyadh.

25-27 March (Wednesday-Friday): Future Investment Initiative Institute, Faena Hotel, Miami Beach.

31 March (Tuesday): Zatca’s 23rd E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

APRIL

6 April (Monday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

6-7 April (Monday-Tuesday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

13-16 April (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Sports Investment Forum (SIF), Riyadh

22-23 April (Wednesday-Thursday): The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah.

27-29 April (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

28 April (Tuesday): GC Summit Saudi Arabia, Riyadh.

MAY

3-9 May (Sunday-Sunday): The Global Sustainability Expo, The Arena Riyadh Venue.

5-6 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh.

19-21 May (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

24-28 May (Sunday-Thursday): Eid Al Adha holiday.

JUNE

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

JULY

6 July-23 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

12-15 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

NOVEMBER

24-28 November (Tuesday-Saturday): Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun, Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production;
November: The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia;
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh;
The Intervision international music competition will take place in Saudi Arabia.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh;
The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

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War buffers defend Saudi A+ credit rating, S&P

An independent publication supported by

Today at a glance

Safaniya and Zuluf fields shut down

This publication is proudly sponsored by

Our A+ rating stands firm

Did the Gulf’s subsea cable buildout just hit a wall?

No race next month

Mouwasat + Cenomi Retail

AlJazira closes sukuk sale + Riyadh gets arts university

Rising geopolitical risks stall GCC debt market activity

CALENDAR

About

Privacy & Support

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Sections

About

Privacy & Support

Get EnterpriseAM daily

War buffers defend Saudi A+ credit rating, S&P

An independent publication supported by

Today at a glance

Safaniya and Zuluf fields shut down

Get Enterprise daily

This publication is proudly sponsored by

Our A+ rating stands firm

Did the Gulf’s subsea cable buildout just hit a wall?

No race next month

Mouwasat + Cenomi Retail

AlJazira closes sukuk sale + Riyadh gets arts university

Rising geopolitical risks stall GCC debt market activity

CALENDAR

An independent publication supported by

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