A source of patient capital

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Aramco mulls sulphur business sale

Good morning, friends. We start off the week with a dive into what went down during FII Priority Europe — the biggest headlines include Aramco moving to hedge its exposure to Hormuz and the Kingdom is pitching itself to global capital.

PLUS- Economists slashed Saudi Arabia’s 2026 growth forecast, but the Kingdom is expected to lead the Gulf’s recovery next year.

BUT FIRST- Hormuz is closed again, Iran says. Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the strait of Hormuz shut yesterday, citing Israeli “crimes” in Lebanon and what it called US violations of commitments to establish a ceasefire. Lebanese state media reported 20 people killed by Israeli strikes yesterday, hours after the truce took effect. Israel says it is not party to the Iran-US deal.

This followed a window when the waterway was open. US Central Command claimed that 55 merchant ships moved vital cargo and over 17 mn barrels of oil through Hormuz yesterday and that US forces remain committed to keeping the shipping lane open. The strait had officially opened on Thursday, hours after the US and Iranian presidents digitally signed a 14-point MoU to end the war, Reuters reports. During that period, three Saudi-flagged supertankers carrying 6 mn bbl of crude sailed through.

The talks are pressing ahead regardless. Iran’s delegation — led by chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf and including Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi — landed in Switzerland on Saturday. US Vice President JD Vance is currently on his way, with negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff already on the ground.

Aramco’s monetization pipeline grows

Aramco is weighing the sale of a stake in its sulphur business — code-named project Yellowstone internally — with assets centering around storage and export terminals in a transaction that could raise up to USD 7 bn, Reuters reports, citing unnamed sources. The company invited banks to pitch last month, the newswire said, but is still reviewing which assets to include. A launch is not expected before next year.

The bigger picture: The sulphur sale is one piece of a broader asset monetization push that could raise up to USD 50 bn from Aramco’s infrastructure portfolio — including oil export terminals (up to USD 25 bn), its headquarters real estate campus (c. USD 10 bn), and water infrastructure assets linked to crude operations (c. USD 500 mn, code-named Project Hydro). The oil terminal process is on hold pending an easing of regional tensions, likely in 2H.

Aramco has been running this process since mid-2025, when it began exploring asset sales in May of last year to raise funds for Jafurah’s build-out, followed by a USD 4 bn power plant sale process in July. The most significant transaction to date was the USD 11 bn lease-and-leaseback of its Jafurah gas processing facilities to a BlackRock-led consortium in August — a template it is now replicating across its infrastructure portfolio.

Is Newcastle scoping investors?

Newcastle United eyes capital injection for stadium expansion: PIF-owned Newcastle United held exploratory talks with KKR-owned Arctos Partners over a potential minority investment to fund the redevelopment of St. James’ Park stadium or a GBP 1 bn new 70k-seat build, Bloomberg reports, citing sources in the know. The talks are in an early stage and may not result in an agreement. Newcastle has also approached other sports investors.

Any stake sale would take the form of new investment, not an existing shareholder selling down, the sources said. PIF holds 85% of the Premier League club while Reuben Brothers holds the remaining 15%. Arctos already holds minority stakes in Paris Saint-Germain and Liverpool’s parent company Fenway Sports Group, structured to stay within UEFA’s multiclub ownership rules.

Why this matters: Newcastle seeking outside capital rather than relying on PIF to write the full cheque fits a pattern. PIF’s broader 2026-2030 strategy has pivoted toward private-sector co-investment, and the LIV Golf funding halt earlier this year made clear that its sports spending has limits. Newcastle, unlike LIV, sits within those limits but the funding model appears to be changing.

Lebanese exports return to Saudi

Lebanese exporters have officially returned to Saudi shores, with the first shipping container departing from the Port of Beirut for Jeddah yesterday after a five-year hiatus, according to a statement on X by Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam. New scanning protocols are now in place at the ports of Beirut and Tripoli, allowing authorities to flag any suspicious cargo as it moves through Beirut.

REMEMBER- The Kingdom lifted a ban on Lebanese imports earlier this month in response to requests from Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Salam, which is expected to help revive the Lebanese economy. The ban was first introduced in 2021 in a bid to clamp down on drug smuggling through shipments including food and furniture.

Data point

SAR 304 bn — these were the revenues from tourism in 2025, the highest on record and 7% up from the figure seen a year earlier, according to data (pdf) from the Tourism Ministry. Total visitor numbers climbed 5.8% y-o-y to 123 mn, with the sector now directly contributing 5.2% to national GDP.

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The big story abroad

The latest on the US-Iran negotiations is dominating the front pages this morning, with representatives from both sides meeting in Switzerland today to discuss a permanent resolution to their nearly four-month conflict and a nuclear agreement. We have more on the negotiations and where things stand with the Strait of Hormuz in the news well, above.

Is Starmer stepping down? UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer could resign as soon as tomorrow amid a recent and drastic loss of popular support, a government source tells The Telegraph. Pressure has mounted especially after Starmer’s chief rival from his own party, Andy Burnham, secured a parliamentary seat that clears his path to launch a formal leadership challenge.

Is the world turning against AI players? The Wall Street Journal is out with a piece on the far-from-rosy outlook of the US’ highly anticipated IPO lineup of its major AI players. It seems that although investors are eager to throw money at AI, the political and societal backlash is moving fast enough to potentially derail these massive public market debuts.

FII in Rome

FII Priority Europe wrapped on Friday at the Rome Cavalieri, having drawn more than 1.6k delegates to debate the continent's “strategic autonomy.”

Four threads ran through Rome: Aramco is moving to hedge its exposure to Hormuz; the gigaprojects are being openly triaged toward what can deliver; the IPO market has frozen with a queue forming behind it; and the Kingdom is pitching itself to global capital while complaining about the red tape.

Rigged terms?

The Kingdom used Rome to advertise itself as a source of patient capital. PIF Governor and FII Institute chairman Yasir Al Rumayyan said the fund will put roughly 140 prospects worth around EUR 10.4 bn in front of European partners through 2030, atop the EUR 98 bn PIF says it has deployed across Europe and the UK since 2017.

In the same breath, he named the obstacle: “Regulatory challenges are really hurting investors,” Al Rumayyan said, citing PIF, Aramco, and Sabic. Pundits read the remarks as aimed at the EU’s Foreign Subsidies Regulation, in force since July 2023, which lets Brussels probe whether foreign state backing distorts competition in European deals — a rule that directly hits sovereign-backed Saudi capital.

Aramco is hedging on Hormuz

Aramco is weighing a worldwide expansion of its oil storage after the Iran war disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Al Rumayyan said the oil giant is “thinking seriously of having larger storage facilities all over the world,” beyond its existing footprint in Asian markets including South Korea and Japan.

The logic is plain: Roughly a fifth of global oil moves through Hormuz, and the conflict exposed the risk of routing too much of Aramco's deliverability through a single chokepoint. Holding more crude in tanks near consumer refining hubs lets the company keep serving customers amid a closure it can’t control.

Gigaproject reset now being said out loud

Neom’s Deputy CEO Ryan Fawaz spoke at the summit's session on financing large-scale projects, saying the project's role is shifting from direct developer to infrastructure host — building the energy, water, digital connectivity and regulatory conditions that let private and international capital develop industrial and technology projects at scale. He described clean energy, green hydrogen, and AI data centers as the sectors where Neom’s land, power, and digital infrastructure give the Kingdom a genuine competitive edge for that model.

The green hydrogen project was his proof point, valued at USD 9 bn and debt-financed to the tune of USD 6.2 bn by international lenders with the balance in equity. Neom put in the platform and then outside capital came in behind it.

Speaking of Neom: Red Sea Global (RSG) is taking over the troubled Sindalah island resort — and its CEO confirmed it for the first time in Rome. John Pagano told Reuters the handover from Neom hasn't formally closed, but will, after which RSG will “assess how to complete it and bring it back to life.”

Sindalah is a sore stumble, a multi bn-USD development that has never opened to the public despite a 2024 VIP launch. The development was reportedly undone by shoddy finishing and a marina and site that inadequate pre-construction assessments left exposed to wind and waves, the newswire reports, citing unnamed sources. Neom's then-CEO Nadhmi Al Nasr was removed weeks after the launch.

Pagano attributed RSG’s delivery record to building expertise in-house rather than leaning on contractors. RSG has 14 resorts open, rising to 25 by end-August and 27 by year-end, and is adding a USD 400-500 a night tier after criticism that its initial USD 2k ultra-luxury pricing was prohibitive. Pagano was granted Saudi citizenship last year.

RSG was also among the few names to leave Rome with ink on paper, signing with Sequest to pilot durable carbon-removal technology inside the Red Sea destination — one of just three disclosed agreements, alongside Saudi ConTech-Redcon on construction tech and an ACWA Power-Telecom Italia Sparkle agreement to explore power and data-transmission cooperation. The values of the agreements were not disclosed.

A queue is forming outside the IPO market

Rome surfaced the companies waiting for the Saudi IPO pipeline to reopen, and Uber founder Travis Kalanick’s AI-and-robotics venture Atoms is one of the names. The company is ready to list on Tadawul but has no timeline, Kalanick told AGBI. “We tried to go public in the Saudi market in 1Q, but for obvious reasons — with the conflict, etc — we got to a place where it just wasn’t possible,” he said. The Capital Markets Authority hasn’t granted permission yet.

Atoms’ Saudi footprint sits mostly in what Kalanick calls “ecommerce for food,” including cloud kitchens, food robotics, and autonomous carriers. The company also works on autonomous vehicles and has a mining tie-up with Maaden.

Even the conference organizer is in the queue. Richard Attias & Associates, which produces the FII summits, has filed its listing request with the CMA, chairman Richard Attias confirmed to AGBI — though he played down the timing, calling an IPO “a very long process” with “no rush.”

Bruised, not broken

The war battered Saudi Arabia's near-term economic outlook, but economists still expect that the Kingdom will lead the Gulf out of the downturn next year. Bloomberg more than halved its 2026 Saudi growth forecast to 1.6% after conducting a survey on 12-17 June, down from 4.4% three months ago. It also raised the 2027 number to 5.8%, up from 3.5% — one of the survey’s sharpest upgrades and an indication that Saudi Arabia and Qatar will anchor the regional rebound.

The non-oil economy absorbed the shocks from the war far better than the headline number suggests. Economists trimmed their 2026 non-oil growth forecasts to 3%, down from 4%. The figure remains firmly positive, even as they flipped the UAE (-2.8%), Qatar (-2%), and Kuwait’s (-2.2%) non-oil economies into outright contraction.

REMEMBER- GDP growth reached 3% y-o-y in 1Q, with non-oil activity contributing 1.7 percentage points. Pundits credit the East-West pipeline for keeping export revenue flowing while shipping through the Gulf virtually stopped. Economists also tied the resilience to steady domestic demand and consumer confidence holding through the fighting.

Looking ahead

The caveat: The forecast rests on Opec+ continuing to unwind output cuts, as well as gigaproject spending holding through 2027, when non-oil growth is forecast to recover to 3.4%.

Watch for inflation: The panel nudged its 2026 forecast up to 2.3% from 1.8%, citing higher food and freight costs. Inflation proved resilient in the first few months of the year, still running at 1.8% in May.

Bank AlJazira, GIB Saudi tap international debt markets

Bank AlJazira finalizes its international debt market return: AlJazira Bank has closed its USD 500 mn AT1 capital certificates offering at 6.50% per annum, according to a Tadawul disclosure. The issuance — 2.5k certificates at a par value of USD 200k each — was executed under the bank’s USD 1.5 bn global AT1 program, with settlement due 24 June. The perpetual green certificates, callable after five years, will be listed on the London Stock Exchange’s International Securities Market.

REMEMBER- The issuance effectively replaces the bank’s USD 500 mn tier 1 sukuk due for redemption on 29 June — part of a broader wave of Saudi banks compressing months of refinancing activity into a narrow pre-summer window as spreads for investment-grade names have tightened back inside pre-war levels.

In other debt news

GIB Saudi kicks off USD 250 mn loan syndication: The Gulf International Bank Saudi Arabia — a joint venture between the PIF and Bahrain’s Gulf International Bank — has launched a general syndication for a USD 250 mn, three-year senior unsecured term loan, according to a report picked up by Zawya. Proceeds will go toward general corporate funding.

ADVISORS- First Abu Dhabi Bank and Standard Chartered are acting as lead arrangers and bookrunners.

Sasco taps Mohammed Al Hajjaj as CEO

Saudi Automotive Services Company (Sasco) appointed Mohammed Al Hajjaj (LinkedIn) as its new CEO, starting 1 August, according to a Tadawul disclosure. A former CEO at Engie, Al Hajjaj steps in following the resignation of Riyadh Saleh Almalik (LinkedIn), effective 31 July, who will remain on the board.

SMC unit lands mental health PPP

SMC subsidiary to run Sabic Behavioral Care Hospital: SMC Healthcare ’s subsidiary Al Mukhtas Al Sehhi Medical secured a SAR 3.8 bn, 15-year PPP contract to manage and operate the Sabic Behavioral Care Specialist Hospital, according to a Tadawul disclosure. SMC holds a 51% stake in Al Mukhtas, with the Health Ministry acting as procurer and asset owner.

IN DETAILS- The 150-bed mental health facility includes 19 outpatient clinics and six daycare rooms, with services spanning mental health, addiction treatment, rehabilitation, and aftercare. The award letter does not impose financial obligations or commitments under the law until the contract is formally executed.

Riyadh Air’s third destination

Riyadh Air flies to Dubai: Riyadh Air has officially rolled out its third destination with a once-daily service to Dubai in each direction on Boeing 787-9 Dreamliners, the airline said in a press release. The route was the seventh busiest international air corridor globally in 2025.

Moving fast: The newly airborne carrier launched its first domestic flight linking Riyadh and Jeddah last week, days after its first commercial international flight to London Heathrow. Riyadh Air has also been cleared for using US airspace, with the US Transportation Department granting it the right to run scheduled and charter service between the Kingdom and the US.

REMEMBER- Riyadh Air wants to integrate one Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner into its fleet each month and launch two new destinations every two months, reaching 100 cities by 2030.

RCRC begins Imam Abdullah bin Saud Road redevelopment

Heads up if you’re driving in northeastern Riyadh: The Royal Commission for Riyadh City (RCRC) has begun reconstruction on 9 km of Imam Abdullah bin Saud Road at its intersection with Khalid bin Al Waleed Road, according to a press release. The project, which aims to ease congestion in the area, will keep three lanes open in each direction during works, but expect disruption around the area for the duration.

REMEMBER- The RCRC kicked off the second phase of the city’s main and ring road development program last year, launching eight projects worth SAR 8 bn, including the development of Imam Abdullah bin Saud Road. The phase is scheduled to be completed over three years.

The return of the SPAC?

SPACs are back — and the mega-IPO frenzy is to thank. As blockbuster listings from the likes of SpaceX absorb the bulk of investor appetite and capital on US markets, shell companies are re-emerging as the practical alternative for firms that can't compete for attention at the top of the queue, Reuters reports.

By the numbers: SPAC issuances have been on the up since last year, when they started to recover from a post-2021 dip. So far, USD 36.9 bn worth of SPAC mergers have been announced through 44 agreements, up from USD 15 bn through 33 agreements at the same point the year before, according to Dealogic data.

BACKGROUND- SPACs helped push global IPOs to a record high in 2021, before a wave of underperformers struggled to deliver returns or find viable targets. The current revival is more selective — with sectors drawing interest this time including energy, crypto, defense, and critical minerals.

Nearly 360 SPACs are sitting on c. USD 56.8 bn in dry powder ready to deploy, according to SPAC Research. Two big pending transactions illustrate the shift — Taiwan-based battery manufacturer ProLogium Technology is listing on the Nasdaq through a USD 3.8 bn SPAC merger, while the US’s power and lithium resource producer Controlled Thermal Resources agreed on a USD 4.7 bn merger.

SPACs can provide an alternative route, or “a quick side entrance,” as Cerity Partners’ Michael Ashley Schulman said, for funds to take advantage of a buoyant market, as mega listings take up a sizable share of investor interest, appetite, and capital.

For the targets, as well as offering an easier access route to the already crowded IPO scene on US capital markets, acquisitions and mergers through shell companies offer more flexibility on terms and a guaranteed capital raise at close.

TASI	11,121	+0.1% (YTD: +6.0%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,489	+0.2% (YTD: +7.3%)
NomuC	23,229	+0.2% (YTD: -0.3%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	52,622	+1.1% (YTD: +25.8%)
ADX	10,017	-1.0% (YTD: +0.2%)
DFM	6,164	-1.7% (YTD: +1.9%)
S&P 500	7,501	+1.1% (YTD: +9.6%)
FTSE 100	10,363	-0.4% (YTD: +4.4%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,293	-0.5% (YTD: +8.6%)
Brent crude	USD 80.57	+0.9%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.20	-1.1%
Gold	USD 4,173	-1.7%
BTC	USD 63,934	+1.1% (YTD: -27.0%)
Sukuk/bond market index	913.14	-0.2% (YTD: -0.7%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	152.44	-0.1% (YTD: +0.4%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	16.78	+2.3% (YTD: +12.2%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 0.1% on Thursday on turnover of SAR 6.5 bn. The index is up 6.0% YTD.

In the green: LIVA Ins. (+7.1%), Almunajem Foods (+4.7%), and Al Moammar Information Systems (+4.0%).

In the red: Al Etihad Cooperative Ins. (-3.1%), Kingdom Holding (-2.9%), and Thimar Development Holding (-2.8%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 0.2% on Thursday on turnover of SAR 19.6 mn. The index is down 0.3% YTD.

In the green: Tadweeer (+9.9%), Time Entertainment (+9.4%), and Asas Makeen (+9.1%).

In the red: Balsm Medical (-10.0%), Lana Medical (-8.1%), and Service Equipment (-6.2%).

CALENDAR

JUNE

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

22-24 June (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

AUGUST

30 August-1 September (Sunday-Tuesday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

31 August-3 September (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.

SEPTEMBER

8-10 September (Tuesday-Thursday): The WTM Spotlight Riyadh, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center (RFECC), Riyadh

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

28 September-1 October (Monday-Thursday): The International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance (ICEGOV), Prince Sultan University, Riyadh.

OCTOBER

12-15 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

NOVEMBER

11-12 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

16-19 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre (Malham), Riyadh.

25-29 November (Wednesday-Sunday): Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun, Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production;
September: Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center;
November: The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia;
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh;
The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah;
SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh;
The Intervision international music competition will take place in Saudi Arabia.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh;
The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
Capital Markets Forum takes place in March in Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

2027f

FEBRUARY

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Energy Regulators Regional Association annual conference, Riyadh.

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