The US-Iran agreement to reopen Hormuz — likely on Friday, once the agreement is signed — is thawing the market, but it doesn’t mean flows will recover anytime soon. Prices of crude are already cooling, with Dubai and Murban curves flipping into contango — meaning futures prices are higher than spot prices, a signal that traders believe supply will return — for the first time since the war began, Bloomberg reports.

And already, analysts are slashing their forecasts for oil prices. Goldman Sachs cut its Brent crude forecast for 4Q to USD 80/bbl, down from USD 90, and trimmed its 2026 average outlook to USD 75/bbl from USD 80 — the bank’s second downward revision in a week. It also expects Gulf exports to normalize to pre-war levels by end-July, earlier than Goldman’s previous end-August forecast.

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser's read on how quickly the market will recover was a lot more bearish. Nasser told analysts on the company's first-quarter earnings call last month that even an immediate reopening would leave the oil market needing months to rebalance, and that had the strait stayed shut more than a few weeks longer, normalization wouldn't come until 2027.

There’s a long checklist ahead for oil producers and shipping agencies alike before flows resume through the strait — and a long queue of ships. Around 500 ships are waiting to exit the Gulf through Hormuz, which has gone from around 135 daily crossings to a trickle over the past several months.

The International Maritime Organization is still assessing whether vessels can safely transit, looking at clearing mines, managing congestion, and establishing an evacuation corridor for seafarers stuck inside the Gulf for more than 100 days.

Until that happens and until an agreement becomes “material,” shipowners will likely wait it out, Japan’s Mitsui OSK Lines CEO Jotaro Tamura — the world’s largest tanker operator by vessel count, with more than 900 ships — told the Financial Times.

The pre-movement checklist includes naval safety assessments, insurer guidance, and confirming the suspension of attacks, Antonella Teodoro, senior transport consultant at MDS Transmodal, tells EnterpriseAM. “Vessel scheduling adjustments and reductions in emergency surcharges would be early indicators of growing confidence,” she adds.

Mine-clearing might be the slowest item on that list — and it cannot be rushed. Mine-scouring using conventional minesweepers and underwater drones could take weeks — approximately 40-50 days — keeping shipowners cautious even after a political agreement is formally in place, Reuters reports.

A sudden return of capacity carries its own risks. Releasing the capacity that has been absorbed into longer voyages during the disruption back into the market creates a real risk of vessel bunching, port congestion, and pressure on hinterland logistics before networks can rebalance, Teodoro tells us.

Recovery ≠ rewind

Carriers will not simply reverse into their pre-war routes. “The recovery phase presents a window for carriers to reassess networks, vessel deployment, and capacity allocation rather than simply reverting to previous configurations,” Teodoro tells us. Shorter routes might be especially prioritized at the beginning — cutting voyage times and lifting vessel productivity before longer-haul reconfiguration happens, she adds.

Premiums could start falling within days of a stable security environment, but don’t expect everything to normalize at once. Carrier surcharges will adjust over subsequent sailing cycles; costs tied to schedule recovery and equipment repositioning will take longer, Teodoro notes.

But it could get worse before it gets better: If too much capacity returns quickly, there could be a rate risk, she explains. Freight rates have already been elevated: The Platts VLCC benchmark stood at USD 278.7k per day by the end of May, more than double the USD 75.9k per day average since the index launched in March 2024.

What shipping agencies and port operators will need to do is coordinate a managed trickle back into the market, not a flood — whether by adjusting service frequencies, rationalizing port calls, or potentially keeping some of the network changes introduced during the disruption.

Tankers are likely to move first; container lines last. Energy trades are concentrated around the region and benefit directly from shorter transits — so tankers have the clearest commercial incentive to return quickly. Container lines face a more complex calculation: any routing change ripples through global service networks and schedule reliability across multiple trades, Teodoro says.