Get EnterpriseAM daily

Outgrowing

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Riyadh Air takes off

Good morning, all and welcome to a new week. A bittersweet headline leads today’s issue — the World Bank has trimmed our economic growth forecast for the year, but we’re still expected to outgrow other Gulf oil producers.

The 2026 World Cup kicked off last week and our national team will play its first match on Tuesday, facing Uruguay at 1am. The team will face Spain next week.

Paramount gets a green light

The PIF’s largest bet on Western media just cleared its biggest US hurdle. The US Justice Department closed on Friday an eight-month antitrust probe into Paramount Skydance’s roughly USD 110 bn takeover of Warner Bros Discovery, ruling the merger unlikely to harm competition or US consumers.

REMEMBER- The deal puts CBS-owner Paramount in control of the larger Warner family, home to HBO and CNN. The Public Investment Fund, the Qatar Investment Authority, and Abu Dhabi’s L’imad Holding are partially bankrolling the transaction with some USD 24 bn in equity.

The three Gulf funds would together own about 38.5% of the combined company, inside a foreign investor block of some 49.5% — one of the largest sovereign pushes into US media on record. The stakes were reportedly structured as non-voting to blunt foreign-influence concerns.

What’s next? Washington was the easy part, but Brussels is the real test. The European Commission has two parallel reviews running — a Phase 1 merger check due 7 July and a Foreign Subsidies probe targeting the Gulf money due 14 July — and can still escalate either into a full investigation.

Riyadh Air’s maiden flight

Riyadh Air’s first commercial flight to London Heathrow took off on Wednesday using a Boeing 787 Dreamliner, the company said on X. Up to this point, the airline had been in an “operational readiness” phase, running invite-only flights to Heathrow on technical spare jets. Last week’s flight marks the real kickoff of its own fleet after taking delivery of its first two Boeing 787-9 Dreamliners.

As for the elephant in the room (regional disruptions) CEO Tony Douglas downplayed the impact on operations. He told Reuters that disruptions elsewhere in the Gulf might actually push more traveler traffic toward Saudi Arabia. Given the complexities of launching an airline during a regional conflict, Douglas also admitted he was “glad” the carrier currently maintains a small fleet. And, thanks to uninterrupted airport operations in the capital, the startup has so far avoided direct disruptions, with Douglas saying that many travelers now view Riyadh as a “safe entry-exit point.”

But the skies are still turbulent: Riyadh Air is launching during an industry-wide crunch of high operating costs, flight reroutes, and surging fuel prices tied to the war. John Grant, partner at Midas Aviation, previously told us that the survivors of this environment will be the “well-resourced” and strategic fuel hedgers.

If you want a deeper dive into the ins and outs of Riyadh Air’s launch, we broke it down here.

China cuts Saudi oil imports

Crude exports to China are expected to remain near record lows in July, with purchases falling to less than a third of 2025’s average intake, as elevated prices following the US-Iran war weigh on demand from the world’s largest importer, Reuters reports, citing unnamed sources.

Where things stand: Aramco is set to ship around 12 mn bbl of crude to China for July loading, or about 387k bbl / d. Major refiners, including Sinopec, didn’t purchase any Saudi crude for a second consecutive month, while Rongsheng Petrochemical’s buying remains well below pre-war levels.

Behind the drop: Chinese refiners have cut run rates as weak fuel demand and higher crude costs led to refining losses, prompting a shift to cheaper alternatives such as Russian, West African, and Latin American crude, Kpler’s senior crude analyst Xu Muyu said. Saudi barrels, by comparison, remain relatively expensive. Aramco’s recent USD 6 per bbl price cut to Asia still puts it at a USD 9.50 per bbl premium over regional benchmarks.

China is still looking to deepen energy ties despite the disruption, as National Energy Administration deputy head Song Hongkun met Aramco Downstream President Mohammed Al Qahtani in Beijing on Thursday to discuss energy security and oil and gas cooperation. The talks focused on coordination and risk management amid ongoing disruptions to global energy flows following Middle East tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Crown prince bows out of G7 summit

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will not attend this week’s G7 summit due to “prior commitments,” SPA reports. The 16 June gathering in France’s Evian was expected to bring together leaders from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, and the UAE to discuss the Middle East conflict, including the Strait of Hormuz situation and its impact on global fuel prices, as well as Iran-related negotiations.

A recurring absence: The Crown Prince has now declined invitations to four consecutive G7 summits, including last year’s gathering in Canada and 2024’s summit in Italy. He did not attend the 2023 Japan summit due to concerns over King Salman’s health at the time. Saudi Arabia is not a G7 member but is occasionally invited as a guest nation.


You can survive a bad investment, but you cannot undo a severance package you never negotiated.

You're at the stage where the questions have shifted: who gets what, whether your estate survives you intact or gets tied up in courts, whether you exit on your terms or let timing decide for you.

Retirement isn't a finish line but a structure problem, and most people get it wrong. It's not because they ran out of money but because they never asked the right questions at the right time.

In the final issue of EnterpriseAM Money Matters, we cover the decisions that define how you exit: estate planning under Egyptian law, what to actually ask your lawyer before you step back, how to read a severance package, when phased retirement makes financial sense — and when cashing out your options is the smartest move you'll make this decade.

Tap or click here to subscribe to the Egypt edition, delivered to your inbox on Wednesday, 17 June.

Data point

USD 64.5 bn — that’s how much Saudi investors traded in US equities through CMA-licensed institutions in 1Q 2026, up 47.2% y-o-y and marking a seventh consecutive quarter of annual growth, according to CMA data cited by Al Eqtisadiah. Trading volumes, however, fell 5% q-o-q amid US market volatility.

Overseas investing gathers pace: US stocks accounted for 28% of Saudis’ total trading activity, up from 18% a year earlier, while the Saudi market retained the largest share at 69%. Meanwhile, Saudi-held assets in foreign-listed securities reached SAR 36.5 bn, up 71% y-o-y, and trading in European markets jumped more than sixfold to SAR 11 bn — the highest level seen since the CMA started gathering data in 2015.

The roundup of news and trends that move your markets and shape corporate agendas delivered straight to your inbox.

Subscribe here

***You’re reading EnterpriseAM Saudi, your essential daily roundup of business, economics, and must-read news about Saudi, delivered straight to your inbox. We’re out Sunday through Thursday by 7am Riyadh time.

EnterpriseAM Saudi is available without charge thanks to the generous support of our friends at Tas’heel and Hassan Allam Properties.

Want to send us a story idea, request coverage, ask for a correction, or otherwise get in touch? Reach out to us on [email protected].

DID YOU KNOW that we also cover Egypt, the UAE, the MENA logistics industry, and the MENA <> India corridor?

Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy of EnterpriseAM Saudi delivered every weekday.
***

The big story abroad

Next stop: Mars. SpaceX’s blockbuster IPO and CEO Elon Musk’s new status as the world’s first tn’aire dominated the front pages over the weekend and continue to do so this morning.

Here’s how day 1 of trading went: SpaceX made its debut on the Nasdaq on Friday after raising USD 75 bn in its IPO, overtaking Saudi Aramco for the title of the largest IPO in history. Shares ended the day up 19% at USD 160.95 apiece, pushing the company’s valuation to over USD 2 tn.

Meet the richest man alive: The company’s public debut pushed Musk’s net worth to USD 1.1 tn, making him over three times richer than second in line Google co-founder Larry Page. A USD 1.1 tn fortune once seemed unimaginable within our lifetime, with the first fortune exceeding USD 100 bn registered less than a decade ago.

Several outlets are out with interesting pieces worth reading on the matter, including the Financial Times’ AI is Revolutionising the Stock Market and Bloomberg’s Why Musk Raced to Take SpaceX Public in the World’s Biggest IPO, which puts the timing of the move into perspective — before the US midterm elections and dominating the scene before OpenAI and Anthropic move forward with their planned listings.

And speaking of Anthropic: The company behind Claude suspended all access to two of its AI models — Fable 5 and Mythos 5 — in response to a directive from the US government, which ordered the startup to block the models from any foreign nationals. The company said the government believes there is a “jailbreak” that can bypass Fable 5’s safeguards, potentially allowing the model to be used for identifying software vulnerabilities.

The latest war update: US President Donald Trump last night said that a US-Iran agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz will “get signed tomorrow.” According to him, the waterway will be “open to all” immediately after the agreement is signed.

This publication is proudly sponsored by

Easier life with Tasheel
The Luxury of Certainty
2

ECONOMY

Trimmed, but leading

Saudi Arabia will outgrow every other major Gulf oil producer this year despite the conflict choking traffic through Hormuz. The World Bank trimmed the Kingdom’s 2026 growth forecast to 3.1% in its June Global Economic Prospects report (pdf), down 1.2 percentage points from its January forecasts, but still the shallowest downgrade in the GCC.

The gap is wide: The bank sees Qatar’s economy shrinking 5.7% this year, while Kuwait is set for a 6.3% contraction and Iraq an even bigger 8.9%. The UAE and Oman are both forecasted to grow 2.4%, 0.7 percentage points below Saudi Arabia.

The credit goes to the East-West pipeline running oil from the Eastern Province to Yanbu, which is letting Riyadh maintain a chunk of exports, the bank said. Gulf neighbors lack a comparable exit.

Higher oil prices will also soften the blow. Brent is expected to average USD 94 / bbl in 2026, up 36% from 2025 and more than 50% above the January projection. The disruption keeping energy markets tight will prove a near-term revenue boost for oil producers still able to export through the strait, the bank added.

What’s next?

It’s all about the strait. The baseline assumes shipping stays severely disrupted through July before normalizing by year-end, with Saudi growth rebounding to 4.9% in 2027 — an upgrade of half a point from January projections.

The risk lives in the downside scenario: If Hormuz stays effectively shut into 4Q 2026, Brent surges to USD 115 / bbl and global growth drops to 2.1%. A longer closure would test the pipeline’s viability as it has a finite capacity ceiling, standing currently at 7 mn bbl / d, although Aramco said last month it plans to invest in increasing its capacity.

3

TRADE

Restored lifeline

Diving deeper into Saudi-Lebanese trade ties after Saudi Arabia lifted a ban on Lebanese imports last week.

The ban — first imposed in 2021 over illicit substances smuggled through legitimate cargo — severed what had once been one of Beirut’s most lucrative export channels. Saudi Arabia was routinely Lebanon’s second- or third-largest export market, absorbing 8-8.5% of total shipments, or USD 243-246 mn between 2017-2019, Byblos Bank Chief Economist Nassib Ghobril tells EnterpriseAM.

Saudi Arabia is also key for Lebanon’s exports because it served as a transit corridor for Lebanese goods bound for the rest of the Gulf. When the ban took hold, exports slowed significantly in 2022 before fundamentally stopping altogether by 2023, Ghobril says. In 2025, with zero Saudi trade, Lebanon’s trade deficit ballooned to nearly USD 17 bn — a devastating figure for an economy already starved for hard currency.

Manufacturers in Lebanon survived the export winter in part by relocating to Oman, the UAE, or Egypt — if they could afford to do so — and re-emerge as local firms shipping into Saudi Arabia under non-Lebanese flags. But even if the people behind these exports were Lebanese, the goods were exports erased from Lebanon’s ledger and that capacity is now being counted under other countries’ data. Smaller exporters and farmers, however, were unable to make that jump due to financial and practical constraints and ultimately absorbed the full blow.

Now, with the export reopening, Lebanese producers are ready to jump back into Saudi-bound exports, Ghobril says. Years of crisis have driven down local production costs (even if they’ve risen in recent weeks due to war-related oil price spikes), while agricultural output, including apples and poultry, has swung into surplus. This resumption is what Ghobril calls a “positive shock” that will help incrementally narrow the country’s trade deficit and pull FX into a banking system still reeling from collapse and struggling to find the money to finance its deposit recovery plans.

4

DEBT WATCH

Debt activity picked up in the Gulf in May

Two months into the (shaky) ceasefire, Gulf companies and sovereigns are slowly returning to debt markets, with May seeing USD 11.2 bn in issuances across the region, Bank Nizwa’s Senior Head of Treasury and Global Markets Muhammad Ahsan tells EnterpriseAM — but the window hasn’t opened for everyone.

The figure is not too bad when you consider the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties in the region, with multiple instances of the US and Iran exchanging fire, and a week of Eid holidays, Ahsan tells us.

When it comes to spreads, they’ve tightened significantly since the beginning of the war, with investment-grade names seeing spreads tighter than they were at the start of the war, Amwal Capital Co-Head of Fixed Income Zeina Rizk tells us. Banking and real estate firms’ spreads are still wider than pre-war levels, she adds.

The pricing premium, however, is nothing alarming or exceptional given the geopolitical situation, Ahsan explains.

“I believe investors are generally receptive to new issues from across the region, as we have seen strong demand for the new [transactions],” Ahsan says. “Spreads are slightly elevated and base yield levels have moved higher, which makes all-in yields attractive,” he adds.

Already, June is starting off strong. Bahrain was the first Gulf sovereign to return to public debt markets since the war, and Dubai Islamic Bank became the latest bank to issue an AT1 sukuk, raising USD 1 bn at almost prewar-level spreads, Ahsan says.

Looking ahead

“We see activity continuing in June before taking a breather in July and August due to the summer lull,” Ahsan says. Rizk also expects issuances to pause ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s FOMC next week, before it resumes depending on market conditions.

Rizk is skeptical that the Fed will move at all. With CPI data coming in largely neutral and payrolls strong, she says arguments exist in both directions, but her base case is that the Fed stays on hold for the rest of the year — absent a significant shift.

Most activity will likely be from corporates, both investment-grade and non-investment-grade, as sovereigns have already raised plenty of funding from private placements, Ahsan points out.

5

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

New asset managers enter the market

New investment players in Saudi

Brookfield and Neuberger enter the Saudi securities market: The Capital Market Authority gave the green light to Brookfield’s local unit, Brookfield Arabia for Business Services, and Neuberger Berman’s local arm, Neuberger Berman Saudi Investment, to manage investments and run funds in the Kingdom, it said in two separate announcements. The approvals mean both firms can now kick off their licensed operations on the ground.

The Saudi market gets busier: Brookfield and Neuberger Berman join a growing roster of international asset managers building onshore investment operations in Saudi Arabia, including BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, Ashmore Group, and Investcorp.

Updated road rules for AVs

The Interior Ministry introduced new traffic regulations for self-driving vehicles, Saudi Gazette reports, citing amendments published in Umm Al Qura. Under the new rules, owners of fully autonomous vehicles (AVs) will be legally accountable for their AV’s traffic violations and accidents, while drivers remain responsible in vehicles that require human oversight.

Exemptions and registration rules: The regulations also require approval from the relevant authority before a self-driving vehicle can be deregistered, and they exempt fully autonomous vehicles from standard driver authorization requirements.

Why it matters: The rules shift responsibility before the law to AV owners, including companies, making them liable for accidents and violations linked to system errors. The move comes as the Kingdom moves forward with several autonomous mobility projects, including the WeRide-Uber robotaxi pilot, planned autonomous trucking initiatives, and a Humain-Nvidia partnership focused on autonomous transport ecosystem development.

6

PLANET FINANCE

Some hope for private credit?

Private credit is finally seeing some positive press for a change, with some outlets reporting signs of recovery as investors buy into high-yield bonds offered by business development companies (BDC).

BACKGROUND- It’s been a high-profile struggle for the private credit industry, with fears of a crisis brewing for some time now. The Financial Stability Board warned of risk mispricing and high default levels in the USD 2 tn sector last month, while 1Q saw wealthy investors pull more than USD 10 bn from funds, prompting managers to cap withdrawals. Software firms — a key target for private credit lenders — are also in the firing line from the AI boom.

However, bonds issued by BDCs have seen a wave of interest recently, with issuance hitting nearly USD 8.4 bn since the beginning of 2Q, after just USD 3 bn was issued in March, Bloomberg reports. ARCC’s USD 800 mn sale was 3x oversubscribed, and Blackstone’s flagship BDC’s USD 850 mn offering saw USD 4.3 bn in orders.

Behind the trend: Some are banking on BDCs’ commitment to repayment, with investors seeing the bonds as less risky than previously thought, according to the business news service. The risk premium on BDC bonds over US Treasuries has snapped back to levels last seen in February, with some analysts expecting spreads to tighten further.

Plus: Attractive yields could help give a boost to the sector. Man Group’s Chief Investment Officer Kevin Marchetti told CNBC that a spike in benchmark interest rates in the US on the back of an inflation uptick could lead to more attractive yields, especially for more disciplined lenders.

The bear case hasn't gone away, though. Underlying stressors remain — some BDCs face credit rating downgrades, and a possible mismatch between redemptions and fundraising looms. Heavyweights including Blackstone and Cliffwater are still capping withdrawals amid a wave of redemption requests.

TASI

11,042

+0.3% (YTD: +5.3%)

MSCI Tadawul 30

1,471

-0.4% (YTD: +6.1%)

NomuC

22,975

-0.1% (YTD: -1.4%)

USD : SAR (SAMA)

USD 3.75 Sell

USD 3.75 Buy

Interest rates

4.25% repo

3.75% reverse repo

EGX30

50,819

-0.9% (YTD: +21.5%)

ADX

9,805

+2.7% (YTD: -1.9%)

DFM

5,954

+3.8% (YTD: -1.5%)

S&P 500

7,431

+0.5% (YTD: +8.6%)

FTSE 100

10,472

+1.6% (YTD: +5.4%)

Euro Stoxx 50

6,188

+2.2% (YTD: +6.8%)

Brent crude

USD 87.33

-3.4%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.12

+1.1%

Gold

USD 4,239

+3.0%

BTC

USD 64,502

+1.6% (YTD: -26.4%)

Sukuk/bond market index

912.25

+0.1% (YTD: -0.8%)

S&P MENA bond & sukuk

152.01

+0.3% (YTD: +0.1%)

VIX (Fear gauge)

17.68

-9.1% (YTD: +18.3%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

TheTASIrose 0.3% on Thursday on turnover of SAR 4.9 bn. The index is up 5.3% YTD.

In the green: Liva (+10.0%), Saudi Cable (+9.4%), and Kingdom Holding (+6.0%).

In the red: National Medical Care (-2.9%), Petro Rabigh (-2.9%), and Artex (-2.8%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC fell 0.1% on Thursday on turnover of SAR 25.2 mn. The index is down 1.4% YTD.

In the green: TMC (+11.7%), Hamad bin Saedan (+11.0%), and Mayar Holding (+9.1%).

In the red: Bena Steel (-12.2%), Arabica Star (-10.3%), and Ghida AlSultan (-7.5%).


JUNE

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

22-24 June (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

AUGUST

30 August-1 September (Sunday-Tuesday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

31 August-3 September (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.

SEPTEMBER

8-10 September (Tuesday-Thursday): The WTM Spotlight Riyadh, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center (RFECC), Riyadh

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

28 September-1 October (Monday-Thursday): The International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance (ICEGOV), Prince Sultan University, Riyadh.

OCTOBER

12-15 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

NOVEMBER

11-12 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

16-19 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre (Malham), Riyadh.

25-29 November (Wednesday-Sunday): Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun, Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

  • The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh;
  • The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
  • Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
  • Capital Markets Forum takes place in March in Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

  • The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

2027

FEBRUARY

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Energy Regulators Regional Association annual conference, Riyadh.

Now Playing
Now Playing
00:00
00:00