Good morning, friends. We wrap up the week with a brisk issue that dives into the looming SpaceX IPO and just how large of a stake the Public Investment Fund aims to secure. We also look at the strategic implications of the UK-GCC freetrade agreement and whether it could lay the groundwork for a similar pact with the EU.
Shaky turf for LIV
CEO Scott O’Neil could not say for certain that the PIF would continue funding LIV Golf through the rest of the season, though he said the league is proceeding on the basis of PIF’s public commitment to do so, Reuters reports, citing a CNBC interview.
Seeking new investors: With PIF stepping back and former LIV chairman Yasir Al Rumayyan leaving his role, LIV is reportedly seeking USD 250-350 mn from new investors to support a planned LIV 2.0 strategy.
ICYMI- The PIF pulled the plug on the breakaway golf league it bankrolled for four years, telling players and staff that funding will stop after the 2026 season wraps up as it no longer matches its investment strategy.
Remaining events still under question: O’Neil declined to confirm that LIV’s final four tournaments of the season — in England, New Jersey, Indianapolis, and Michigan — will take place, amid reports that some events could be at risk. LIV Golf Louisiana was recently postponed, leaving a six-week gap in the schedule before the tour is set to resume in the UK in late July.
Growth rebound in 2027?
Saudi Arabia’s real GDP growth is projected to rebound to 6.8% in 2027 from a projected 0.9% this year on the back of increased oil production, offsetting the softening of oil prices, according to Riyad Capital’s 2Q 2026 Saudi Economic Chartbook (pdf). The turnaround assumes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would gradually start this September, allowing Saudi crude production to climb from 9.1 mn bbl / d this year to 10.4 mn bbl / d in 2027. However, Brent crude is forecasted to drop to an average of USD 75 per bbl next year from USD 86 this year.
Riyadh Capital predicts the oil sector will be the growth engine, expected to rise 14.3% in 2027 from a projected 3.6% in 2026. Non-oil sector growth is forecast to accelerate 4.7% in 2027 from 3.0% this year driven by sustained capital deployment in logistics, tourism, and manufacturing.
How it compares: The IMF expects the Kingdom’s GDP to pick up pace to 4.5% in 2027. Meanwhile, Moody’s was the most optimistic, expecting a sharp 8% rebound in 2027 as the situation eases in the strait and production climbs back up.
Lebanese imports coming our way
The Kingdom has lifted a ban on Lebanese imports following directives from Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan bin Abdullah. The decision came in response to requests from Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and is expected to help revive the Lebanese economy and “support a wide range of Lebanese producers and exporters,” according to a statement from the Lebanese side.
ICYMI- The ban was first introduced in 2021 in a bid to clamp down on drug smuggling through shipments including food and furniture.
Data point
19.1% — that was the y-o-y drop in the Kingdom’s Industrial Production Index (IPI) in April, driven into the negative territory by a 29.9% y-o-y drop in mining and quarrying along with slowing manufacturing activity, according to data (pdf) from the General Authority for Statistics. The index also slid 6.8% m-o-m from March.
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The big story abroad
The US launched a fresh wave of attacks on Iran last night and threatened to continue the attacks if Tehran doesn’t sign the peace agreement. US President Donald Trump said Iran would “pay the price” for dragging out negotiations.
The Iranian response: Iran launched strikes in Bahrain targeting the US Fifth Fleet — Bahrain’s Interior Ministry sounded the alarm and told the public to seek shelter. Shortly after, Kuwait said it was intercepting aerial targets.
The state of Hormuz is unclear, with contradicting reports from Iran and the US. State-run Iranian media said the waterway has been closed to all vessels, while the US said commercial ships are continuing to transit.
Looking at the markets: Oil jumped on the news, with Brent crude rising over 2% to USD 95.14. Asian markets opened lower — extending losses initially triggered by a tech selloff — and in the US, equities are on track to open in the red with futures down in response to the attacks.
Speaking of US markets: The country saw inflation pick up in May, recording 4.2% — its highest level in three years — on the back of rising energy costs, making a rate hike from the Federal Reserve appear increasingly likely. Commenting on the figure, Trump said, “I love the inflation,” promising that “oil [will] drop to where it was before [the war].”
The 2026 World Cup kicks off tonight with a showdown between South Africa and Mexico starting at 10pm. To better acquaint yourself with the players, check out The Athletic’s list of 200 players to watch at the 2026 World Cup. Team KSA will face Uruguay on Tuesday at 1am and then Spain the following Sunday at 7pm.


