To the moon

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Sama’s five-day rule

Good morning, friends. It’s a day of staggering valuations and cautious economic calibrations, led by the impending SpaceX mega-listing and what it could mean for early Saudi backers. We’re breaking down what this windfall means for market liquidity, arriving just as May’s corporate data shows the non-oil private sector shaking off its recent post-war slump.

ALSO- The IMF reins in its full-year GDP expectations for the Kingdom on lingering regional anxieties, South Korea’s Kepco clinched a USD 560 mn cogeneration contract at Jafurah, and Retal takes the wheel on a SAR 1.9 bn mixed-use destination in Riyadh. Let’s get to it.

Raising capital? Tell Sama first

The Saudi Central Bank (Sama) wants all non-bank financial institutions to notify it at least five working days before conducting any investment rounds, according to an announcement (pdf). The requirement applies to financing companies, payment service providers, exchange houses, and financing support firms — in addition to standard no-objection approvals.

What does the central bank need to know? Companies must provide details on the investment round's timeline, purpose, value, target investors, and expected impact on their ownership structure and financial position. They must also disclose the type of instrument being used — whether equity, convertible securities, or debt — and submit supporting documents along with any additional information requested by Sama.

Why it matters: Sama is moving further upstream in the fundraising process. The pre-notification signals the regulator is prioritizing visibility and oversight ahead of transaction agility, making it far harder for unvetted capital to enter the fintech ecosystem. The move also limits the scope for undisclosed equity or debt arrangements to fly under the radar.

Refinery closures start to bite

Aramco points to the missing refining layer: Years of underinvestment in refining have left the market more vulnerable to today’s oil shock, following the closure of roughly 3 mn bbl / d of global refining capacity between 2020 and 2023, Aramco’s VP of market analysis and sustainability Musaab Al Mulla told Reuters.

Refining capacity could have cushioned the blow: The company argues that those lost refining barrels would have helped absorb some of the impact of the current crisis. With attacks on energy infrastructure, Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the US’ naval blockade removing an estimated 14 mn bbl / d of Middle Eastern oil supply from the global market, refining constraints are becoming increasingly visible. Aramco has separately warned that a prolonged disruption could cost the market as much as 100 mn barrels per week.

Saudi-Russia ties in focus at SPIEF

Saudi Arabia and Russia are using the 2026 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) to reinforce their economic and energy ties, with the Kingdom joining as the forum’s guest of honor, Al Arabiya reports. Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman is set to meet Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak to discuss cooperation and Opec+’s stabilizing role in global oil markets post-UAE exit, while broader talks are expected to cover investment, tourism, industry, education, and culture. The event wraps on Saturday.

Efforts to grow closer were already underway. A Saudi-Russian mutual visa waiver entered into force last month, allowing citizens of both countries to stay for up to 90 days for business or tourism purposes, though it does not cover work, residency, or Hajj travel.

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The big story abroad

We have a slew of updates on the regional conflict. A Republican-controlled US House of Representatives has voted to block President Donald Trump from launching further strikes on Iran unless congressional approval is obtained. This is the House’s fourth attempt to curb Trump’s military actions and still requires approval from the Senate.

Is headway being made? Trump has said that Tehran has “already agreed” not to have nuclear weapons, adding that it can still change its mind. Iran’s Foreign Ministry declined to weigh in while an unnamed government source said the president’s comments were misleading.

More strikes: Kuwait International Airport was targeted yesterday in a strike that injured several people and forced flight cancellations. While regime-affiliated media reported that Iranian authorities have denied responsibility and blamed US interceptor rockets, the US military rejected those claims.

ALSO- Lebanon and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire. The truce — brokered by Washington — is contingent on a complete halt to Hezbollah fire and the total evacuation of its operatives from the South Litani Sector.

Meanwhile, Uber is reportedly plugging some USD 500 mn into Nuro, a self-driving startup. The startup — backed by Nvidia and Soft Bank — aims to license its software to carmakers and is expected to launch later this year.

SpaceX’s IPO isn’t the only offering making headlines: Anthropic has reportedly tapped Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs to lead its highly-anticipated IPO this year, which could take place as early as October.

Circle your calendar

The Effie Awards Saudi Arabia will take place in Riyadh on Thursday, 11 June. The one-day event will bring together marketers and brands for panels and workshops focused on marketing effectiveness, consumer trends, and advertising, wrapping with an awards ceremony recognizing campaigns and organizations across the Kingdom. This is the first Saudi edition of the global program.

The SpaceX windfall

The biggest IPO in history is days away, and a handful of Saudi investors are sitting on a windfall. Elon Musk’s SpaceX is set to list on Nasdaq this month, in an offering that could raise a record USD 75 bn, more than double the USD 29 bn Aramco raised back in 2019.

The sheer size is staggering: The company plans to sell 555.6 mn shares priced at USD 135 apiece, Bloomberg reports, citing unnamed sources. The pricing would value the rocket-and-satellite-and-AI company at up to USD 1.75 tn and make Musk the world’s first t’naire.

Why it matters

The market is putting a hard number on stakes that Saudi investors have held privately for years.

The most visible winner is Kingdom Holding (KHC). The listed investment vehicle chaired by b’naire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal told the Arabic press last week that it and Alwaleed’s private office together own 0.63% of SpaceX, a stake worth about USD 10.6 bn at the high-end USD 1.75 tn valuation. KHC had invested in xAI during a Series C round in December 2024.

The market has already run with it: KHC has gone on a tear, with the stock closing yesterday at SAR 15.37 — a fresh high — it is up 93% YTD. That values the company at roughly SAR 57 bn, even though its 1Q net income fell 38% y-o-y to SAR 269 mn.

BUT- Mind the accounting: The company benefits significantly from its AI and tech ventures, but the mechanism matters, and its investment in SpaceX remains an unrealized gain, Business Analysis Director at Argaam Investments Youssef Al Youssef tells us. “The unrealized gain or loss from the change in fair value won't show up directly in the income statement; it goes straight into other comprehensive income, into shareholders' equity,” Al Youssef explains.

Who else is in the boat? The Public Investment Fund’s AI champion Humain holds a direct stake in SpaceX, a company spokesperson confirmed to EnterpriseAM. Humain had put USD 3 bn into xAI's Series E round shortly before xAI merged into SpaceX.

The company declined to comment on the size or the expected valuation of the stake, but we can still make an educated guess. Humain’s stake could be roughly 0.24%, Bloomberg estimated earlier. That’s a third of what we know KHC and Alwaleed hold, which “could be reasonable given Humain’s size and the PIF's participation,” Al Youssef tells us. At this size, the stake would be worth some USD 4 bn at the USD 1.75 tn market cap, according to our calculations.

KHC and Humain are not the whole story: Other Saudi investors and VC funds may hold smaller, undisclosed slices, Al Youssef adds, with more likely to pile into the sector post-listing.

What’s next?

The investor roadshow runs next week, with pricing expected 11 June and trading kicking off 12 June. SpaceX hasn't confirmed the dates publicly, however, and they could shift with the SEC review or market conditions.

Watch the liquidity: Al Youssef flags a genuine risk for Tadawul, as an offering this size needs filling. Foreign funds may trim GCC positions to freeup capital for SpaceX, denting local market liquidity. Turnover is already looking soft, standing at some SAR 4.4 bn in yesterday’s session. That’s possibly a sign of capital being parked ahead of the listing, he notes.

The flipside is a longer-term re-rating. “An offering of this size and force, on a major exchange like the US market, will give a real push to tech, innovation, and fintech, not just in the Saudi market but across the Gulf. I think it re-rates these markets and how investors view the gains already realized in the sector, and it could create more demand for tech investment in the period ahead.” Al Youssef tells us.

Momentum

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector gathered further momentum in May, with the Kingdom’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbing to 52.8, up from April’s 51.5, according to the Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia latest report (pdf). The jump signals a steady recovery since March’s slump following the eruption of the US-Iran war. While the reading sits comfortably above the neutral 50.0 threshold, fueled by reviving local demand and stabilizing supply networks, export hurdles and high costs kept the index below its long-term historical average of 56.8.

A modest demand growth still drove higher output and new orders: As business conditions normalized, companies dusted off delayed contracts and restarted frozen projects, pushing output levels to a three-month high, according to Riyad Bank’s Chief Economist Naif Al Ghaith. New orders also rode the same wave, rising to 52.0 in May, compared to April's 51.5 reading, but they remain below their long-run average, Reuters reports.

The global market offered little help: Foreign orders contracted sharply for the third month in a row, choked off by ongoing shipping bottlenecks, high freight costs, and regional conflict.

Logistics stabilization pushed inventory rebuild: Average supplier delivery times shortened in May for the first time in three months. Firms went on a buying spree sensing a window of stability, boosting purchasing activity for the first time since February to rebuild their inventories and hedge against future disruptions.

Staffing levels returned to growth in May in response to backlogs, which inched up for the eleventh consecutive month. However, the hiring push was cautious compared to the start of the year. “Demand is recovering, but uncertainty and a relatively low pace of growth is constraining employment,” Mohamed Abu Basha, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis at EFG Hermes, said in a note seen by EnterpriseAM.

MEANWHILE- Price pressures eased slightly from April’s record high, but they remain painfully high. Companies are still facing steep bills for raw materials, supplier charges, and transport. On the bright side, wage inflation took a minor breather from its March peak. Companies held onto their pricing power, passing a heavy chunk of these expenses directly onto consumers and keeping inflation near historic highs.

Sentiment remains resilient: Saudi businesses expect the non-oil economy to sustain its upward momentum through 2026, driven by better domestic demand, stabilized supply chains, controlled inflation, strong government investment, and robust trade, Al Ghaith notes.

IMF sees slower Saudi growth

The IMF believes Saudi Arabia can withstand the immediate shock from the conflict, but not indefinitely. The longer the conflict lasts, the more the risk shifts from short-term logistics to longer-term growth and investment, according to a statement from the multilateral lender. The fund consequently lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2%, from the 3.1% it projected in April.

“The main risk is an escalation of the conflict, which could further impair shipping routes, damage energy infrastructure with associated output losses, and heighten uncertainty and financial sector risks,” said mission head Azim Sadikov.

So far, our buffers are limiting the fallout: The Kingdom has kept oil flowing by rerouting exports through the East-West pipeline and Red Sea ports, helping offset disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Higher oil prices are also expected to compensate for lower export volumes, while low debt, ample reserves, and the PIF provide additional protection against the economic impact of the conflict.

But there’s potential for a turnaround: Assuming shipping conditions normalize in the coming months, the IMF expects growth to recover. This stabilization would breathe back life into the non-oil activity fueled by strong domestic demand, stable government jobs, and steady public and private investment.

MEANWHILE- The fund left its inflation forecast unchanged at 2.3%, although higher shipping and ins. costs are expected to add some price pressures.

The IMF isn't calling for stimulus just yet: The fund says a modest reduction in the non-oil primary deficit remains appropriate in 2026, arguing that any support measures should come through reprioritizing existing spending rather than disrupting the pipeline of public investment projects.

Kepco secures next phase of Aramco’s Jafurah cogeneration project

South Korea’s Kepco secured a contract from Aramco to build and operate the second phase of the Jafurah cogeneration project. The company signed a power and steam sales agreement with Aramco and an EPC contract worth c. USD 560 mn with Doosan Enerbility, which will build the facility and supply key equipment.

What’s in store? Kepco and Aramco will establish a special purpose vehicle to develop a 331 MW combined-cycle power plant capable of producing around 465 tons of steam per hour. The facility, which builds on the 317 MW first phase of the Jafurah cogeneration project, is scheduled to begin commercial operations by June 2029.

The project is poised to generate nearly USD 1.4 bn in revenue over 17 years through the sale of power and steam to Aramco. The wider consortium brings together Korean industrial and financial players. While Doosan Enerbility will lead construction, its subsidiary Doosan Skoda Power will manufacture and supply the steam turbines, with financing support from the Export-Import Bank of Korea.

This should not be confused with the broader Jafurah gas field development. Rather, the project forms part of the supporting infrastructure needed to operate the field. In addition to generating electricity, the plant will supply steam used in industrial processes required to extract and process natural gas.

SOUND SMART- Steam is a critical industrial utility used in gas processing, heating, separation, and other energy-intensive operations across upstream and midstream facilities. By generating power and steam from the same facility, the combined-cycle plant improves fuel efficiency, lowers operating costs, and reduces emissions compared with producing them separately.

The award adds to Kepco’s role in the Kingdom: In recent years, Kepco secured a stake in the 3.6 GW Rumah 1 and Nairiyah 1 combined-cycle power projects alongside Acwa and Saudi Electricity Company.

Retal Heights developer tapped

Retal will take on Riyadh mixed-use project: Retal Urban Development signed a development management agreement with Sakan Al Malqa Real Estate Company, a SAB Invest-managed fund, to develop the SAR 1.9 bn Retal Heights mixed-use project in Riyadh’s Al Malqa district, according to a Tadawul disclosure. Retal holds a 24.5% stake in the fund.

What Retal will do: Retal will oversee the project's design, development, construction, marketing, sales, and regulatory approvals. The development will be built on a 19.4k sqm site along King Fahad Road and will include residential, commercial, and hospitality components. Construction and development are expected to take 48 months.

The financing: SAB will finance up to 50% of the total investment value, while the vehicle will target institutional and qualified investors, according to a statement seen by EnterpriseAM.

The project comes as Riyadh’s housing market grapples with affordability challenges. Residential sales in the capital fell 83% y-o-y in 1Q 2026 as rising property prices outpaced income growth. Despite the slowdown in transactions, the long-term demand outlook remains supportive, with Knight Frank estimating Saudi Arabia will need around 830k additional housing units by 2034 to accommodate population growth.

The warning lights are flashing

Signs that the global economy is suffering from the fallout of the US-Iran war are growing, with the OECD saying in its latest outlook that the global economy could face its worst slowdown in 40 years outside of the pandemic and the 2009 financial crisis if geopolitical tensions and disruptions continue into next year.

Under a prolonged disruption scenario, OECD expects global growth to come in at 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027 — a significant downgrade from its earlier projection of 3.1% growth next year. It also expects several economies to potentially tip into recession if disruptions persist.

The energy shock is doing most of the damage. Crude oil prices rose more than 50% in the weeks following the outbreak of fighting, with gas prices spiking sharply across Europe and Asia and distillates — including jet fuel and diesel — surging alongside them.

Global inflation could be 0.4 percentage points higher this year and 1.3 points higher in 2027 in a prolonged disruption scenario.

At the same time, mns are at risk of losing their jobs in the EU, Bloomberg reports. As many as 560k jobs could be cut this year due to the energy costs, while 600k jobs are already under pressure in the automotive industry.

All of these data points are putting policymakers between a rock and a hard place. OECD expects some rate hikes this year, followed by rate cuts next year, in its scenario where the conflict resolves soon.

The developing world is already acting fast despite the difficult balancing act of reining in inflation while preventing economic harm. At least 10 emerging- and frontier-market central banks have raised rates since fighting began in late February, including Indonesia, Rwanda, South Africa, and Sri Lanka, Bloomberg reported elsewhere.

As for the US Federal Reserve, some Fed policymakers are pushing for rate increases, saying they might be necessary to rein in mounting inflation. The Fed is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate in the 3.50-3.75% range at its policy meeting in two weeks, but some traders are already placing a more than 60% chance that a rate hike could come in July.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets opened lower, tracking losses felt across Wall Street a day earlier as a fresh wave of attacks across the Middle East spooked investors. South Korea’s Kospi is down some 2%, while Japan’s Nikkei is looking at losses of 1.8%. The Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng are also in the red.

TASI	11,002	-0.1% (YTD: +4.9%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,466	-0.2% (YTD: +5.7%)
NomuC	23,007	+0.2% (YTD: -1.2%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	52,564	-0.7% (YTD: +25.7%)
ADX	9,582	-0.4% (YTD: -4.1%)
DFM	5,686	-0.8% (YTD: -6.0%)
S&P 500	7,554	+0.7% (YTD: +10.4%)
FTSE 100	10,332	-0.4% (YTD: +4.0%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,054	-0.9% (YTD: +4.4%)
Brent crude	USD 97.18	-0.6%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.24	+0.8%
Gold	USD 4,481	+0.3%
BTC	USD 65,284	-2.2% (YTD: -25.5%)
Sukuk/bond market index	912.15	-0.1% (YTD: -0.8%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	152.10	+0.3% (YTD: +0.1%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	16.06	+1.8% (YTD: +7.4%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 0.1% yesterday on turnover of SAR 4.4 bn. The index is up 4.9% YTD.

In the green: Amana Ins. (+6.5%), Al Hammadi (+6.4%), and Rasan (+3.7%).

In the red: Jahez (-3.2%), Dar Albalad (-3.1%), and Al Majed Oud (-3.0%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

TheNomuC rose 0.2% yesterday on turnover of SAR 16.7 mn. The index is down 1.2% YTD.

In the green: Pro Medex (+10.9%), Smile Care (+9.3%), and Future Vision (+9.1%).

In the red: Asas Makeen (-13.0%), Leaf (-8.1%), and Ghida Alsultan (-8.1%).

CALENDAR

JUNE

11 June (Thursday): The Effie Awards Saudi Arabia, Riyadh

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

22-24 June (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

AUGUST

30 August-1 September (Sunday-Tuesday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

31 August-3 September (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.

SEPTEMBER

8-10 September (Tuesday-Thursday): The WTM Spotlight Riyadh, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center (RFECC), Riyadh

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

28 September-1 October (Monday-Thursday): The International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance (ICEGOV), Prince Sultan University, Riyadh.

OCTOBER

12-15 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

NOVEMBER

11-12 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

16-19 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre (Malham), Riyadh.

25-29 November (Wednesday-Sunday): Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun, Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production;
September: Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center;
November: The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia;
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh;
The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah;
SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh;
The Intervision international music competition will take place in Saudi Arabia.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh;
The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
Capital Markets Forum takes place in March in Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

2027

FEBRUARY

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Energy Regulators Regional Association annual conference, Riyadh.

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Today at a glance

Sama’s five-day rule

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The SpaceX windfall

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Momentum

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IMF sees slower Saudi growth

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Kepco secures next phase of Aramco’s Jafurah cogeneration project

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Retal Heights developer tapped

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The warning lights are flashing

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About

Privacy & Support

Get EnterpriseAM daily

To the moon

An independent publication supported by

Today at a glance

Sama’s five-day rule

Get Enterprise daily

Related

This publication is proudly sponsored by

The SpaceX windfall

Related

Momentum

Related

Related

IMF sees slower Saudi growth

Related

Related

Kepco secures next phase of Aramco’s Jafurah cogeneration project

Related

Retal Heights developer tapped

Related

The warning lights are flashing

Related

CALENDAR

Related

An independent publication supported by

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