Budget deficit balloons to eight-year high in 1Q

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

PIF adds a second pin to its China map

Good morning, wonderful people. Our budget deficit ballooned in the first quarter to its highest level in 8 years and the second-highest on record. Revenue was barely affected, though. The culprit was the government shoring up spending on subsidies and grant to get in front of the war’s impact — as well as a hike in defense spending (for obvious reasons). We have the breakdown in today’s news well below.

ALSO- Another big healthcare consolidation move saw Fakeeh Care snap up 100% of Al Fagih Hospital, Saudi VCs are stepping up as global and regional investors remain cautious, and 1Q earnings are out from Saudi Energy, Savola, and more. Let’s dive in.

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INVESTMENT — The Public Investment Fund (PIF) is reportedly expanding its physical footprint in China with a new office in Shanghai, unnamed sources told Bloomberg. Registered last year, the office operates under the fund’s Beijing hub and aims to support outbound agreements in China while also helping attract Chinese investment into Saudi Arabia, the sources said.

Why it matters: Although the international share of PIF’s international portfolio allocations has been limited to 20% as domestic spending ramps up, PIF Governor Yasir Al Rumayyan said the composition of overseas investments is shifting toward sectors such as global equities, infrastructure, technology, aerospace, and gaming — areas where China excels.

Our take: The Shanghai expansion points to a more transactional phase in Saudi-China investment ties, with growing scope for capital-for-localization that follows the example of PIF’s Lenovo investment and its subsequent Saudi manufacturing facility.

Data point

SAR 470 bn — that’s the financing provided to the Kingdom’s MSMEs by the end of 2025, up 33% y-o-y, Sama’s Executive Director of Non-Banking Financial Institutions Control Bader Alotaibi said. Outstanding MSME financing reached a record 11.6% of the total financing portfolio, with average growth of 27% over the past three years.

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The big story abroad

Mixed messaging over the US-Iran negotiations continues this morning, with President Trump vowing to bomb Tehran “at a much higher level” if an agreement isn’t reached soon. Trump’s post came after media reports of the two sides inching closer to ending the war and setting a framework for nuclear negotiations, with Iran’s response expected through Pakistani mediators by Thursday’s end.

Meanwhile, ceasefires seem to be shaking everywhere: Israel targeted an elite Hezbollah commander, its first strike on Beirut’s suburbs since the ceasefire in Lebanon. An attack on the Gaza Strip also targeted the son of Hamas’ chief Khalil Al Haia amid a renewed bombing campaign.

Over in the tech world: A tie-up between Anthropic and SpaceX will give the AI lab access to the Colossus 1 data center — and see the two explore opportunities for building data centers in space.

Also worth reading this morning:

A “systemic jet fuel shortage” threatens summer travel in Asia and Europe.
CNN founder Ted Turner passed away at 87.
Apple agreed to a USD 250 mn settlement over delayed Siri AI features.

An eight-year high deficit

Saudi Arabia’s fiscal deficit hit SAR 125.7 bn in the first quarter of 2026, a significant jump from the SAR 58.7 bn deficit recorded in 1Q 2025, according to the Finance Ministry’s quarterly budget performance report (pdf). The quarterly deficit — the highest since 2018 — is already nearing the entire full-year shortfall of SAR 165.4 bn projected in the FY 2026 government budget, as the Kingdom contends with the impact of the US-Iran war on its resources.

“It is hard to draw too much of a conclusion on spending from one quarter, [...] but 1Q is usually quite modest, whereas this was the second highest quarter on record,” Director of Khalij Economics and GCC analyst for GlobalSource Partners Justin Alexander tells EnterpriseAM.

The culprit: The widening gap was driven by a massive 20% y-o-y surge in total expenditures, which reached SAR 386.7 bn, far outstripping a marginal 1% y-o-y decline in total revenues, which came at SAR 261 bn.

The breakdown

Oil income drifts lower, non-oil growth stays the course: Oil revenue slightly fell 3% y-o-y to SAR 144.7 bn, still making up about 56% of total revenues. Meanwhile, non-oil revenue grew steadily but slowly, logging a modest 2% increase to SAR 116.3 bn. Taxes on goods and services rose 5%, though the increase was offset by a 12% decrease in income and profit taxes, and a 19% drop in other taxes.

Subsidies skyrocket: Employee compensation made up 39% of total spending, or SAR 151.1 bn, rising only 3% y-o-y. Meanwhile, expenditure on subsidies jumped 170% to SAR 17.5 bn, and expenditure on grants surged 249% to SAR 956 mn.

“It is unclear to what extent the higher spending was related to the war,” Alexander says, projecting that recurrent spending is “likely to remain well above budget through this year.”

Defense spending is now a priority: Military expenditure jumped 26% y-o-y to SAR 64.7 bn, as the Kingdom counters a sustained campaign of drone and missile threats amid the US-Israel-Iran conflict. Pundits see this as the likely trend for most Gulf states as they navigate through the war shock of direct Iranian attacks on GCC soil.

The debt situation

Hefty borrowing: For the second consecutive quarter, the government left its reserves untouched, maintaining a closing balance of SAR 400.9 bn. Instead, it financed the entire 1Q deficit through the debt markets. Total public debt climbed to SAR 1.67 tn by the end of the quarter, up from SAR 1.52 tn at the start of the year.

Hurrying with the 2026 plan? The National Debt Management Center already announced on Tuesday that it is done with its annual borrowing plan for 2026, with 90% of financing needs secured before the war erupted.

Still leaving the door open: “Should the ongoing coordination with the Ministry of Finance identify a need for additional financing, NDMC intends to leverage private channels and local markets as the primary funding sources,” the statement said.

REMEMBER- The NDMC lined up USD 13 bn (SAR 48.8 bn) in January — a seven-year syndicated loan to fund utility and infrastructure projects, covering around 30% of the projected SAR 217 bn deficit in 2026.

Fakeeh Care snaps up Al Fagih Hospital

Fakeeh Care goes binding on Al Fagih: Tadawul-listed Dr. Soliman Abdel Kader Fakeeh Hospital Co. (Fakeeh Care) signed a binding share purchase agreement to buy 100% of Dr. Mohammed Bin Rashed Al Fagih & Partners Co. (Al Fagih) for SAR 1.6 bn in banknotes, the company said in a disclosure to Tadawul yesterday. The agreement builds on a non-binding offer that was first flagged back in November.

What Fakeeh is buying: A single 350-bed multi-specialty hospital in central-east Riyadh, opened in October 2022 and currently operating 238 beds and 109 outpatient clinics out of a 192-clinic, 93k sqm complex.

Who’s selling? Dallah Healthcare with 31.21%, founder Dr. Mohammed Rashid Al Fagih with 18.2%, and 38 minority holders accounting for the remaining 50.59%. Dallah’s slice of the check amounts to SAR 497.98 mn, according to a separate disclosure.

How Fakeeh is paying: A mix of self-financing and bank debt on terms in line with the group’s existing credit lines.

The pitch

Fakeeh’s existing presence in the capital is a 185-bed hospital. Bolting on Al Fagih’s 350 beds gives it a 535-bed, two-site cluster — the kind of footprint that’s hard to build organically in Riyadh’s increasingly crowded private-hospital market.

Fakeeh says the agreement also broadens the payer mix. Its traditional positioning skews to VIP and top-tier ins., while Al Fagih brings in cashpay patients and Class B / Network 6 insured volumes. Cost synergies and revenue cross-pollination are the pitch from here.

Swinging to the black: Al Fagih swung from a net loss of SAR 73 mn in 2023 — its first full year — to a net income of SAR 15.7 mn in 2024, rising to over SAR 48 mn in 2025. Revenue was also up 24% to SAR 466 mn in 2025, more than double the SAR 213 mn it booked in 2023.

Conditions and timing: General Authority for Competition non-objection, third-party consent, and no regulatory roadblocks. The agreement lapses if these conditions aren’t cleared within six months.

ADVISORS- PwC is advising on the financial side, and White & Case is providing counsel.

Zooming out: the wider Saudi healthcare reshuffle

This is the latest in a steady drumbeat of consolidation among the Kingdom's listed hospital operators, and it lines up neatly with the Health Sector Transformation Program — which is leaning hard on the private sector to absorb a chunk of the Kingdom’s care delivery.

The moves: Dallah has been on its own M&A run for years with Kingdom Hospital, Makkah Medical Center, Al Salam, and most recently Al Ahsa — while National Medical Care has stitched together Jeddah’s Chronic Care Specialized Medical Hospital and Makkah’s Jiwar Medical Center. Meanwhile, Sulaiman Al Habib and Mouwasat are scaling mostly organically with new builds in Riyadh, Dammam, and beyond.

ALSO FROM FAKEEH CARE- The group’s net income was down 47% to SAR 38 mn in 1Q 2026, mostly on Ramadan and Eid Al Fitr seasonality eating into operating days, and ramp-up costs at the new DSFH Madinah hospital. Revenue was up 3.3% y-o-y to SAR 724 mn.

The dividend situation: The board separately recommended an SAR 0.33 per share dividend for FY 2025, totaling SAR 75.9 mn.

Local VCs step up

Local capital steps up as global investors pull back: Saudi venture capital (VC) firms are continuing to raise and deploy funds, even as regional and global investors remain cautious, Bloomberg reports. With geopolitical tensions and tighter global liquidity pushing international players to scale back exposure, Saudi firms are stepping in to fill the gap.

Some are leaning into the downturn: Khwarizmi Ventures has already raised more than USD 70 mn in the first close of its second fund and begun deploying capital, Managing Partner Abdulaziz Al-Turki said. Similarly, Sharaka Capital is preparing a new USD 30 mn fund to build on its SAR 350 mn in assets under management, maintaining a focus on Saudi prospects, said Abdulelah Alowayyid, a partner at the firm.

This aggressive stance is echoed by Plus VC: “When people are fearful, that’s often the best time to invest,” Managing Partner Hasan Haider told the business information service.

IN CONTEXT- The MENA venture landscape is in a period of adjustment, with higher funding costs and volatile oil prices weighing on activity. Startup funding across the region was broadly flat at USD 799 mn in 1Q, according to Magnitt, with lower participation from international investors continuing to drag on overall transaction flow.

We’re becoming a more self-sustaining capital market: Khwarizmi’s own investor mix is becoming increasingly domestic — led by institutions, family offices, and high-net-worth individuals — with government-linked entities making up about a third of the fund. The transition points to a broader structural shift toward local capital, Al Turki noted

Why it matters: The growing reliance on domestic capital reduces exposure to foreign investors, who accounted for 29% of Saudi funding in 2025 and have historically been the first to retreat during shocks, according to Magnitt data. This shift is helping stabilize the Saudi venture ecosystem, providing a more resilient funding base even as global uncertainty persists.

But caution still persists: Sadu Managing Director Salem Washeely is seeing signs of investor caution, with firms being advised to preserve their funds amid a conflict-induced “slowdown.” Even so, Sadu is still targeting a USD 70 mn fund this year and aims to reach USD 100 mn in AUM by year-end, he added.

The earnings keep rolling in

Savola Group

Savola Group posted a 50.4% y-o-y increase in net income to SAR 284.5 mn in 1Q, thanks to one-off gains related to its exit from operations in Sudan, lower operating expenses, and higher finance income. Revenue was broadly stable at SAR 7.3 bn, supported by higher volumes in the food processing segment, but offset by weaker performance in retail, food services, and frozen foods.

War hasn’t hit the books so far: Savola claims that geopolitical tensions “have not had a material impact on [the] Group’s financial statements” during the quarter.

Looking ahead: Savola is not currently looking for new geographic expansions, instead directing its energy on bolstering existing markets, CEO Sameh Mahmoud Hassan told the Arabic press (watch, runtime: 10:08).

Saudi Energy

Saudi Energy reported an 89.4% y-o-y surge in net income to SAR 1.8 bn in 1Q 2026, driven by stronger electricity demand, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. Its top line rose 9.4% y-o-y to SAR 21.3 bn during the year, supported by growth in the grid’s regulated asset base, higher electricity production revenue, and an expanding subscriber base.

Tawuniya

The Company for Cooperative Ins. (Tawuniya) saw a 10.1% rise in net income to SAR 288.1 mn, according to a Tadawul disclosure. Growth was driven by a 30.8% jump in ins. results on higher reins. recoveries and a 34.9% drop in ins. finance expenses. These gains were partly offset by a 64.9% downturn in ins. service results amid higher claims and expenses, alongside a 7.6% decline in investment income. Revenue rose by 12.6% y-o-y to SAR 5.8 bn during the same period.

Tawuniya’s next five years: The company’s 2026-2030 strategy centers on customer positioning, supply chain expansion, and a flexible technology-led model, CEO Othman Alkassabi told the Arabic press (watch, runtime: 9:14). Tawuniya has earmarked SAR 150 mn for AI as part of over SAR 300 mn in total tech investments, along with plans for acquisitions and diversification into auto repair and healthcare, with subsidiaries set to contribute a larger share to revenues over the next four years.

Nahdi Medical

Nahdi Medical’s net income fell 7.6% y-o-y to SAR 235.7 mn in 1Q, weighed down by higher operating expenses linked to expansion investments, though performance was largely flat excluding a one-off zakat release in the prior year, according to a Tadawul disclosure. Revenue grew 6% y-o-y to SAR 2.8 bn, driven by growth in its healthcare (35%) and regional expansion (32%) businesses.

Saudi Ground Services

Saudi Ground Services’ net income dropped 38.1% y-o-y to SAR 60.5 mn in 1Q 2026, weighed by higher operating expenses, it said in a Tadawul disclosure. Revenue was broadly flat at SAR 672.5 mn, as stronger Umrah-driven activity early in the quarter was offset by a slowdown toward the end.

Allied Cooperative Ins. Group

Allied Cooperative Ins. Group (ACIG) swung to a net loss of SAR 17.7 mn in 1Q 2026, down from a net income of SAR 13.9 mn, as ins. service results turned negative. Meanwhile, revenues were up 68% y-o-y to SAR 316.5 mn thanks to an increase in motor and medical ins. sales.

In the red zone: Accumulated losses reached 52% of the company’s capital, amounting to SAR 151.2 mn, it said in a separate Tadawul filing. The insurer blamed the losses on a trio of higher net claims in segments such as motor ins., increased technical provisions, and a heavy spend on digital infrastructure.

What’s next? ACIG is implementing a corrective plan focused on repricing and risk management, portfolio diversification, and stronger claims handling. Under CMA rules for companies exceeding the 50% accumulated losses threshold, the board must issue its recommendation by 3 July, followed by an EGM by 31 October to decide on the company’s continuation or dissolution.

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Strong demand for Al Rajhi Capital’s financing fund

Al Rajhi Capital secures SAR 1.3 bn financing fund

Al Rajhi Capital’s Indirect Financing Fund 4 was fully subscribed in just one week, raising over SAR 1.3 bn to invest in personal financing contracts from a Sama-licensed firm, according to a press release. The private closed-end fund, which secured an AA+ credit rating, is designed to provide monthly distributions over a three-year term at a medium risk level, extendable for two additional one-year periods.

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Asmo breaks ground on its first purpose-built logistics hub

Asmo — the Aramco-DHL JV — broke ground on its first purpose-built logistics hub at King Salman Energy Park in partnership with Bahraini alternative investment firm Arcapita. The 1.4 mn sqm facility will serve Aramco, its affiliates, and other energy and industrial customers, with plans for a temperature-controlled grade warehouse, chemical storage, offices, staff facilities, and a large open yard for industrial handling. Acrapita will fund and own the asset, while Asmo will lead development and operation under a 22-year lease.

Gaps exposed in USD 2 tn industry

Fears of a private credit crisis are reaching a boiling point now, with financial watchdog the Financial Stability Board (FSB) warning in its latest report (pdf) of widening gaps, high levels of defaults, and liquidity mismatches in the sector.

The key issues: The sector’s opaqueness is leading to risks being mispriced, and a web of interconnectedness is complicating things. With asset managers, banks, ins. funds, PE firms, institutional and retail investors, and private credit players all involved, “this layering effect may amplify losses during market stress,” the report said.

Large data gaps are making it harder to get a clear picture of the scale of the risk, FSB warns, but there are indications of a high level of defaults. When counting selective defaults from restructuring agreements, the rate of defaults in the sector reaches 5%, the report said.

How big is the problem? Total lending in the private credit market stood at USD 1.5-2 tn as of the end of 2024, as more private credit buyers pile into the market, with borrowing reaching as much as 6x their EBITDA, the Financial Times reports.

Tech, healthcare, and services were identified as the biggest borrowing sectors, FSB said, with analysts fearing that exposure to the tech sector in particular would make private credit especially vulnerable to the AI bubble, given that AI accounted for 35% of PC agreements in 2025, up from 17% on average over the last five years.

ICYMI- The worries link back to earlier fears of an AI bubble, with massive investments in data centers and infrastructure relying on private credit to secure the necessary funds. FSB said estimates pointed to AI-linked capex reaching as much as USD 2.9 tn by 2028, with USD 800 bn of this set to come from private credit.

The lender link: The watchdog flagged that up to USD 500 bn had been provided by banks in drawn and undrawn loans, while Bloomberg data points to 11 US banks having issued a total of USD 185 bn in outstanding loans. The picture isn’t much different in Europe, where 13 lenders have lent USD 135 bn this year alone.

The strain is starting to show, with HSBC recently disclosing that its lending to a private credit fund resulted in it taking a USD 400 mn hit, the Financial Times reports.

The prognosis: FSB is suggesting setting up supervisory discussions on monitoring problem areas, analyzing risks and key metrics from data it provided, and establishing uniform definitions for certain opaque areas within private credit.

For now, the scale of “leverage and interconnectedness could amplify stress in adverse scenarios, posing broader risks to financial stability,” according to the watchdog’s Secretary General, John Schindler, with the report adding that the sector has been “untested at its current size, scope, and concentration” so far under stress conditions.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Japan’s stock market rose to a new record as Asian markets rallied this morning, tracking Wall Street, with the Nikkei rising 5%, and Topix up more than 2%. Chinese equities were also in the green, though South Korea’s Kospi reversed earlier gains and was trading in the red. Meanwhile, Wall Street futures were mostly flat after what was also a record day for markets, on hopes of a US-Iran agreement being close.

TASI	10,949	-0.5% (YTD: 4.4%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,462	-0.3% (YTD: 5.4%)
NomuC	22,812	+0.4% (YTD: -2.1%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	53,605	+2% (YTD: 28.2%)
ADX	9,875	+0.9% (YTD: -1.2%)
DFM	5,898	+3.0% (YTD: -2.5%)
S&P 500	7,365	+1.5% (YTD: +7.6%)
FTSE 100	10,439	+2.2% (YTD: +4.9%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,027	+2.7% (YTD: 4.0%)
Brent crude	USD 102.3	+1%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.72	-0.3%
Gold	USD 4,697	+0.1%
BTC	USD 81,453	+0.3% (YTD: -8.2%)
Sukuk/bond market index	916.1	-0.8% (YTD: -0.3%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.79	+0.4% (YTD: -0.1%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	17.39	+0.1% (YTD: 16.3%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 0.5% yesterday on turnover of SAR 6.7 bn. The index is up 4.4% YTD.

In the green: Gulf Ins. (+9.1%), The Power and Water Utility Company for Jubail and Yanbu (+8.5%), and Arabian Mills (+8.1%).

In the red: Wataniya Ins. (-10%), Allied Cooperative Ins. (-8.2%), and Riyadh Cables Group (-7.9%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 0.4% yesterday on turnover of SAR 19.3 mn. The index is down 2.1% YTD.

In the green: Albattal Factory (+15%), Al Modawat Specialized Medical (+9.3%), and Digital Research (+7.2%).

In the red: Shmoh Almadi (-7.5%), Horizon Food (-6.4%), and Mohammed Hadi Al Rasheed (-5.7%).

Corporate actions

The Saudi Investment Bank’s (SAIB) board recommended a 20% capital boost to SAR 15 bn, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The SAR 2.5 bn increase will be funded by capitalizing SAR 1.5 bn from the statutory reserve and SAR 1 bn from retained earnings, with shareholders receiving one bonus share for every five shares held. The raised capital is earmarked for strengthening the bank’s capital base and supporting growth.

Dividends: The board also proposed an SAR 374.5 mn dividend payout for 2H 2025 at SAR 0.30 per share, it said in a separate disclosure. The distribution, whose date has not been determined, would bring total 2025 dividends to about SAR 874 mn.

CALENDAR

MAY

3-9 May (Sunday-Sunday): The Global Sustainability Expo, The Arena Riyadh Venue.

24-28 May (Sunday-Thursday): Eid Al Adha holiday.

JUNE

15-17 June (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

22-24 June (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

JULY

6 July-23 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

AUGUST

30 August-1 September (Sunday-Tuesday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

31 August-3 September (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

28 September-1 October (Monday-Thursday): The International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance (ICEGOV), Prince Sultan University, Riyadh.

OCTOBER

12-15 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

NOVEMBER

25-29 November (Wednesday-Sunday): Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun, Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production;
September: Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center;
November: The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia;
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh;
The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah;
SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh;
The Intervision international music competition will take place in Saudi Arabia.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh;
The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
Capital Markets Forum takes place in March in Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

2027

FEBRUARY

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Energy Regulators Regional Association annual conference, Riyadh.

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