No more mulligans for LIV

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Moody’s applauds PIF’s new strategy

Good morning, wonderful people. It’s less than a month until Eid Al Adha, and the first ship carrying pilgrims arrived on Friday at the Jeddah port, signaling business as usual despite the regional turmoil.

Where it’s NOT business as usual: LIV Golf, as we got official confirmation from the PIF that it will not be funneling money into the breakaway league beyond the 2026 season. We take a look at the finances and the wider context that led to this decision in today’s big story, below.

ALSO- As the dust settles, more figures are gradually revealing the impact of the war’s first month. Flash estimates showed GDP growth cooled in 1Q on an expected slowdown in oil activities, while the banking sector’s March data showed import financing and residential mortgages took a hit — although Sama’s foreign assets rose compared to February.

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Happening today

Opec+ is set to meet later today to weigh yet another output cut. Widely circulating reports claim the cartel will announce a 188k bbl / d increase in output targets — another symbolic hike similar to last month’s 206k bbl / d increase as the vital Strait of Hormuz remains closed for business.

The group will meet without the UAE, which suddenly went for the door last week — reportedly without negotiations or giving notice to the Kingdom. There’s yet to be a public response from Saudi officials as of this writing, and speculation remains over how Riyadh plans to ease the fallout from the surprise move and alleviate the concerns of other members.

The Iran war led to diverging fortunes for GCC oil producers. Higher prices more than made up for Saudi Arabia’s lost shipments through the strait, as it managed to reroute a big chunk of exports, while the UAE could be in for a large decline in its oil income, according to Goldman Sachs.

PSAs

Trading in shares for Kier International and Amwaj International was suspended last Thursday and will remain halted until the companies publish their financial statements. The suspension follows their failure to release 2025 results due to technical audit delays. Keir expects to publish its results sometime this month, while Amwaj is still in talks with its external auditor over audit evidence for specific line items.

Watch this space

INVESTMENT — The Public Investment Fund (PIF) is tightening its belt — and getting brownie points from Moody’s for it. The PIF’s newly-approved 2026-2030 investment strategy — which focuses more on creating value rather than pure growth — will strengthen the fund's financial resilience and support long-term economic diversification, Moody’s said in a note.

TECH — The region’s digital recovery is going to be a long haul: Amazon said restoring its cloud operations in the UAE and Bahrain following damage from drone strikes earlier in the conflict will take several months, Reuters reports. The tech giant has suspended billing for affected customers in the region as it grapples with the physical aftermath of the conflict.

The current state of play: AWS’ service health dashboard currently lists 37 services across both countries as disrupted. The company is advising clients to migrate accessible workloads to other global regions or restore from remote backups.

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The big story abroad

Berkshire Hathaway’s first post-Buffett annual meeting is dominating the business pages this morning. During the meeting, CEO Greg Abel sought to reassure shareholders wary of a post-Warren Buffett era. Abel pledged not to break up the conglomerate and to eliminate bureaucratic hurdles. The firm’s whopping USD 380 bn portfolio of liquid capital means that Berkshire will not be “beholden to anyone,” Abel said.

Abel urges shareholders to be patient: The new CEO said that he was “not anxious to deploy capital into subpar [prospects]” and that he will make “significant” investments in assets when it is most opportune. He also highlighted that the firm is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the tech sector’s expansion through its ownership of the utility infrastructure essential for powering data centers.

Shareholders seem happy. Veteran attendees of the annual meeting largely agreed that he has proven his capability, leaving the event mostly reassured by the transfer of power from Buffett to Abel.

MEANWHILE- In the unending US-Iran diplomatic saga, Tehran has communicated the concept for a new peace proposal to President Donald Trump, who will wait for the exact wording of the agreement before committing. Trump also clarified that the option to resume military strikes remains on the table should Tehran “misbehave.”

To fortify its Middle East allies against future Iran strikes, Washington aims to expedite a USD 8.6 bn arms contract by invoking emergency powers and bypassing Congressional review. Under the agreement, the UAE, Qatar, and Israel would obtain defense capabilities aimed at intercepting missiles.

No more nine-figure checks

It’s official — The PIF is done throwing USD bns at LIV Golf. The Public Investment Fund is pulling the plug on the breakaway golf league it bankrolled for four years, telling players and staff that funding will stop after the 2026 season wraps up.

The fund confirmed the move in a statement to AFP on Thursday, with a spokesperson saying that “the substantial investment required by LIV Golf over a longer term is no longer consistent with the current phase of PIF's investment strategy.”

The price tag: The fund’s total commitment rose to USD 5 bn back in December, according to industry tracker Money in Sport. Annual top-ups amounted to USD 1.2 bn in 2021, USD 1.3 bn in 2022, USD 200 mn in 2023, USD 1.2 bn in 2024, and USD 1.1 bn last year.

Translation? The league has been burning money at a clip of roughly USD 100 mn a month, with no obvious path to break even.

It wasn’t going to end anytime soon: LIV chief executive Scott O'Neil told the Financial Times in February that the league would need another five to 10 years to turn profitable — a runway PIF has now decided it doesn't want to underwrite.

Why it never became sustainable: The league’s commercial model never managed to wean itself off PIF capital. A 2023 framework deal between PIF governor Yasser Al Rumayyan and PGA Tour boss Jay Monahan was supposed to merge the two sides' commercial operations under Al Rumayyan’s chairmanship — but the deal never materialized. The PGA Tour subsequently raised bns from a consortium led by Liverpool FC owner John Henry, leaving LIV out in the cold. Bankers at Citi were brought in earlier this year to try to sell stakes in LIV’s teams, but with little to show for it.

The context: Part of a broader PIF reset

The decision lands squarely in the middle of the fund’s new 2026-2030 strategy, which the board signed off on in mid-April. The shift is toward private-sector co-investment, a 15% spending trim, and a sharper focus on commitments the Kingdom can’t walk away from — the 2034 FIFA World Cup, Expo 2030 infrastructure, and housing.

The PIF’s recalibration started before the US-Israel war on Iran in late February — but has been complicated by it. Persistent oil prices below USD 90 a barrel, the fiscal pressure of gigaprojects like Neom and the Red Sea, and the cost of the Gulf’s exposure to Iranian retaliatory strikes on regional infrastructure have all narrowed the room for nine-figure checks on overseas plays.

!_Subhed_! LIV isn’t the only sports asset on the block

The fund already sold a 70% stake in Pro League powerhouse Al Hilal to Kingdom Holding Company last month, with Al Rumayyan saying the fund plans to gradually exit Saudi football club investments altogether, holding minority stakes rather than majority ownership. The Kingdom has also reportedly walked away from a planned bid for the 2035 Rugby World Cup and dropped hosting the Next Gen ATP Finals.

Newcastle United, however, is staying: An unnamed source close to PIF told the FT that the fund remains committed to the English Premier League club it bought in 2021 — Al Rumayyan headed a delegation to the UK last week to review the club’s long-term strategy and short-term performance. The fund is also still planning the PIF London Championship on the Ladies European Tour in August.

What’s next?

The new directors hint at what’s coming next. LIV said on Thursday that Gene Davis and Jon Zinman are joining its board — both veterans of US distressed debt investing, which Wall Street took as a tell that some form of balance-sheet restructuring is in the cards. Al Rumayyan was notably absent in LIV’s statement, and he is reportedly stepping down as chair, according to the salmon-colored paper.

LIV’s pitch to potential backers: The league is talking up “a 100% increase in revenue year over year,” a strong international fan base in markets the PGA Tour ignores (Australia, South Africa), and partnerships with HSBC and Salesforce.

BUT- Several of the league’s sponsors — including Aramco and Riyadh Air — are themselves PIF assets, raising questions about how much of that revenue is genuinely commercial.

Cooling off

Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth cooled in 1Q 2026 to 2.8%, marking its slowest growth rate since 2Q 2024 and falling from the 3.7% growth recorded in 1Q 2025, according to flash estimates from Gastat.

On a quarterly basis, GDP shrank 1.5% compared to 4Q 2025 on the back of oil activities dropping 7.2% q-o-q.

Blame the blockade: Oil activities expanded just 2.3% during the quarter, down from 10.8% in 4Q 2025. The slower growth came as the US and Israel’s war on Iran and disrupted shipments of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, which led to oil activities contributing just 0.7% of GDP growth.

Meanwhile, non-oil activities “were the main contributor to GDP growth,” accounting for 1.7 percentage points of the total and growing 2.8% y-o-y, down from 4.3% in 4Q.

REMEMBER- The IMF is expecting Saudi Arabia’s growth to average 3.1% in 2026, the fund said in its World Economic Outlook report last month. That figure is 1.4 percentage points lower than the Fund’s initial outlook in January. However, growth is expected to pick up pace again to 4.5% in 2027.

Reading the first war bulletin

Net foreign assets in the Kingdom’s banking sector edged up to SAR 1.51 tn in March, rising from SAR 1.47 tn in February, according to the Saudi Central Bank’s (Sama) latest monthly bulletin (pdf).

The breakdown: The gain was driven by Sama, whose net foreign assets jumped to SAR 1.78 tn from SAR 1.70 tn a month earlier. This offset a widening deficit at commercial banks, where net foreign assets fell deeper into the red to reach SAR 262.3 bn, compared to SAR 230.8 bn in February.

Commercial bank assets are inching closer to the SAR 6 tn mark: Total assets hit SAR 5.07 tn by the end of March, up slightly from February’s SAR 5.06 tn. Bank credit across all maturities grew 8.2% y-o-y to reach SAR 3.36 tn.

Where is the money going? Personal loans remain the undisputed heavyweight at SAR 1.45 tn. On the corporate side, credit to real estate activities continues to balloon, hitting SAR 408.9 bn. Other major recipients include electricity, gas, and water supplies (SAR 222.9 bn) and wholesale and retail trade (SAR 218.1 bn).

MEANWHILE- The mortgage market is feeling the squeeze. Residential mortgages financed by banks dropped 22% m-o-m to SAR 4.19 bn in March. This covered just 6.4k new contracts, a sharp decline from the 8.35k recorded in February.

Import financing is also slowing down. Settled letters of credit (LCs) for private sector imports fell by 8.8% to SAR 12.03 bn in March, down from SAR 13.2 bn in February, marking the lowest level witnessed in almost three years, Justin Alexander, director of Khalij Economics and GCC analyst for GlobalSource Partners, said in a note.

The drivers: Building materials accounted for the largest portion at SAR 2.71 bn, while motor vehicles fell the sharpest by 38.8% m-o-m to SAR 1.30 bn, “which makes sense given disruptions to ports behind Hormuz,” Alexander said. Still, he noted the overall decline was limited, as most other imports are processed through Jeddah.

The outlook for future imports is even more subdued: New letters of credit opened in March totaled SAR 9.70 bn — a 17% m-o-m drop. The forward-looking pipeline includes SAR 2.23 bn for building materials, SAR 2.08 bn for motor vehicles, and SAR 1.09 bn for appliances.

ALSO- Broad money supply (M3) saw an 8.2% y-o-y increase, reaching SAR 3.31 tn in March. Demand deposits remain the primary component at 45.5%, while time and savings deposits (37.6%) and other quasi-money deposits (9.2%) followed. Total liabilities in the survey climbed to SAR 5.64 tn, a 5.7% y-o-y rise.

SOUND SMART- M3 is the broadest measure of money supply. Think of it as the total liquidity in the system. It includes banknotes, current accounts, and other money that can be quickly mobilized (what econ-nerds call M2), as well as large time deposits, institutional money market funds, short-term repurchase agreements, and larger liquid funds.

AND- Gov’t bonds reached a new peak in March: Government and quasi-government bonds rose to SAR 659.4 bn, a 7.6% increase compared to March 2025. Meanwhile, bank credit to public sector enterprises stood at SAR 254.5 bn, representing a 17.1% y-o-y jump.

Bahri’s 1Q net income quadruples on war volatility

A few more earnings roll in: Some more players are out with their latest financials, giving us a glimpse into their performance for the first quarter of the year.

Bahri

The National Shipping Company of Saudi Arabia (Bahri) posted a 303% y-o-y jump in net income last quarter to SAR 2.2 bn and a 129% increase in revenue to SAR 5 bn, it said in an earnings release (pdf). The jump was driven by growth across Bahri Oil, which saw its revenue jump 241%, and Bahri Chemicals, which saw a more modest 14% increase in revenue over the quarter.

Using the war to its advantage: Bahri reaped the rewards of war-induced market conditions, where heightened geopolitical tensions lifted freight rates. Despite disruptions to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and a shift toward the Red Sea corridor, Bahri maintained full fleet deployment and increased chartering activity to meet elevated demand, capitalizing on the volatility.

REMEMBER- Bahri has been supporting the Kingdom’s Red Sea pivot via Yanbu port during the Hormuz disruption, chartering supertankers at record rates early in the war.

Bupa Arabia

Bupa Arabia posted a 1.9% y-o-y increase in net income last quarter to SAR 387.3 mn, according to a Tadawul disclosure. The modest improvement was driven by higher investment income (up 5.5%) and stronger other revenue (up 40.7%), though partially offset by increased operating expenses (up 14.7%) and a weaker ins. service result (down 6.9%) due to inflationary pressures. Ins. revenue expanded 18.8% to SAR 5.2 bn.

Saudi Re.

Saudi Reins. Co. (Saudi Re) recorded a 32% y-o-y rise in net income to SAR 46.7 mn in 1Q 2026 on the back of ins. revenues surging 73.2% y-o-y to SAR 560 mn, according to a Tadawul disclosure. Other factors contributing to the company’s growth for the quarter include overall business expansion, a 56% rise in reins. gains, and an 8% increase in net investment gains.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

Takween to takeover Advanced Fabrics

Takween moves to fully acquire Advanced Fabrics Factory Company

Takween Advanced Industries is set to take full control of Advanced Fabrics Factory Company, after signing a share purchase agreement to acquire the 70% stake held by its Chinese partner Jofo Nonwovens, according to a Tadawul filing. Tawkeen, which already owns 30% of the target company, will assume 100% ownership along with all financial and operational liabilities.

What’s next: The move still needs the regulatory green light and is expected to be reflected in Takween’s 1Q 2026 results, with a preliminary gain of about SAR 4 mn.

NextEra sets up shop in KAFD

IT solutions provider NextEra has opened up its new headquarters in Riyadh’s King Abdullah Financial District (KAFD), the firm said in a press release. NextEra already operates a training center in the Eastern Province and plans to expand its talent development programs across Saudi Arabia.

REMEMBER- NextEra was launched last year as a joint venture between Aramco Digital and India’s LTIMindtree, with backing from Aramco’s Namaat Industrial Investments Program. The company focuses on AI, cloud services, digital engineering, sustainability, and customer-centric solutions.

New shipping services hit Saudi ports

Jeddah Islamic Port and King Abdullah Port are now connected to major European hubs like Gdańsk and Antwerp, following the addition of the MSC-operated shipping service Middleast Express, the Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) said. The service, which has a 16k TEU handling capacity, also integrates a land transport link from King Abdullah Port to King Abdulaziz Port.

Jeddah Islamic Port also saw the addition of a new service by CMA CGM, Ocean Rise, which will connect the port to nine ports across Western Europe and Far East Asia. Its capacity will be around 3k TEUs.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

Are we in the early stages of a commodity supercycle?

Growth in sectors like AI and defense is triggering a spending spree in a key sector that is powering the others — mining. The rush is part of a wider pivot away from tech stocks and toward hard assets, as infrastructure continues to cement its place as a key hinge on which other growing sectors, from AI to energy, depend.

By the numbers: Assets under management in mining exchange-traded funds doubled to USD 87.4 bn at the end of 1Q, according to ETFGI data picked up by Reuters. Investors poured USD 8.2 bn into mining during the quarter — a USD 10.8 bn reversal of outflows that had hit the sector in 1Q 2025, triggered by tariffs implemented by US President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, shares of the two largest mining companies, BHP and Rio Tinto, have both hit record highs this year.

Why are they having such a moment? In comparison with tech stocks, critical minerals and metals are seen as less exposed to AI disruption, Harding Loevner’s Anix Vyas said. For now, “copper is at the intersection of everything and critically undersupplied,” Regal Partners’ Charlie Aitken said, while also predicting the metal’s prices could double or triple in the next decade.

The regional war has also put things into perspective, highlighting the need for governments to shore up supply chains and secure disruption-proof access to critical materials and energy security.

A rethink of the traditional “safe haven”? Inflows into copper outperformed those into gold, as investors increasingly position themselves towards infrastructure-linked assets amid war-induced disruptions, effectively betting on more infrastructure spending across the energy sector. Oil and gas funds saw some USD 6 bn in inflows in the first quarter alone.

Where the risks lie: Metals, as an asset class, are more exposed to supply chain disruption, as we’re currently seeing through the Strait of Hormuz. Typically, fund sizes are smaller, meaning volatility can seem more amplified.

TASI	11,188	-0.5% (YTD: +6.6%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,492	-0.7% (YTD: +7.5%)
NomuC	22,882	0.0% (YTD: -1.8%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	51,761	-1.2% (YTD: +23.7%)
ADX	9,789	+0.1% (YTD: -2.1%)
DFM	5,767	0.0% (YTD: -4.6%)
S&P 500	7,230	+0.3% (YTD: +5.6%)
FTSE 100	10,364	-0.1% (YTD: +4.4%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,882	+1.1% (YTD: +1.5%)
Brent crude	USD 108.17	-2.0%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.78	+0.5%
Gold	USD 4,645	+0.3%
BTC	USD 78,660	+0.7% (YTD: -10.2%)
Sukuk/bond market index	917.09	+0.1% (YTD: -0.2%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.40	+0.1 (YTD: -0.3%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	16.99	+0.6% (YTD: +13.7%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 0.5% Thursday on turnover of SAR 7.0 bn. The index is up 6.6% YTD.

In the green: GAS (+10.0%), Emaar EC (+6.4%), and Sisco Holding (+6.4%).

In the red: Almajed OUD (-10.0%), First Mills (-3.7%), and Bupa Arabia (-3.6%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC remained flat Thursday on turnover of SAR 19.8 mn. The index is down 1.8% YTD.

In the green: DRC (+11.5%), Mayar (+9.6%), and Saudi Top (+8.8%).

In the red: Molan (-12.6%), Lana (-8.8%), and Aictec (-6.7%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Americana Restaurants’ board greenlit a USD 201.6 mn dividend payout for 2025 at USD 0.024 a share, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul (pdf). The payout date is yet to be announced.

CALENDAR

MAY

3-9 May (Sunday-Sunday): The Global Sustainability Expo, The Arena Riyadh Venue.

24-28 May (Sunday-Thursday): Eid Al Adha holiday.

JUNE

15-17 June (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

22-24 June (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

JULY

6 July-23 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

AUGUST

30 August-1 September (Sunday-Tuesday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

31 August-3 September (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

12-15 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

NOVEMBER

24-28 November (Tuesday-Saturday): Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun, Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production;
September: Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center;
November: The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia;
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh;
The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah;
SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh;
The Intervision international music competition will take place in Saudi Arabia.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh;
The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
Capital Markets Forum takes place in March in Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

2027

FEBRUARY

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Energy Regulators Regional Association annual conference, Riyadh.

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