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Sunday, 26 Apr 2026

What We’re Tracking Today
The Big Story Today
Economy
Industry
Earnings Watch
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
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The final five

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Today at a glance

1

THE BIG STORY TODAY

Vision 2030 recap shows the private sector is set to take the wheel.
2

ECONOMY

Non-oil exports jump in February.
3

INDUSTRY

Investment Ministry, Satorp to expand Amiral petrochemical complex’s downstream industries.
4

EARNINGS WATCH

Kingdom Holding reports retreating bottom line.
5

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

New head coach takes over national team ahead of World Cup.
6

PLANET FINANCE

The greenback continues to retreat.

Sunday, 26 Apr 2026

What We’re Tracking Today
The Big Story Today
Economy
Industry
Earnings Watch
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Calendar
1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

No more Met Opera investment?

Good morning, wonderful people. This week is off to a relatively busy start, with the annual Vision 2030 report giving us a comprehensive view on how the national strategy progressed in 2025 — and what to look out for in its third and final phase. The report matches up with the messaging from the PIF, signaling the private sector can expect to be “crowded in” until the end of the decade, particularly with PPP projects in the pipeline.

PLUS- We have the latest non-oil export data from Gastat, which we break down in full in the news well, below.

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INVESTMENT — The government withdrew from a preliminary agreement that would have provided up to USD 200 mn to the Metropolitan Opera over eight years, the New York Times reports. The arrangement, announced in September, had also envisaged a three-week annual Met residency at the Royal Diriyah Opera House. The Met now faces a USD 30 mn funding gap this fiscal year ending July 31, with further shortfalls likely after losing expected Saudi support tied to post-pandemic recovery.

“Essentials-only” policy reshapes priorities: Still a non-binding MoU and never finalized, the agreement was ultimately shelved after Saudi officials cited economic disruption linked to the war in Iran and a move to prioritize “essential” projects, with the Met pact falling outside that scope, Met General Manager Peter Gelb said.

Why it matters: The Met exit is another indicator of the Kingdom’s domestic prioritization, with the PIF’s new five-year strategy shifting to deploy 80% of capital locally and overseas allocations now limited to 20%, the focus has moved to projects that deliver financial returns or industrial value like infrastructure, tech, and aerospace over prestige projects like the Met.

DEFENSE — More security talks with Ukraine: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Saudi Arabia for the second time within a month to advance a security pact covering Ukrainian defense expertise and air defense, alongside energy and food security cooperation, according to a statement. The push builds on a March framework agreement that set the stage for joint investment, technology exchange, and defense procurement.

Why it matters: Ukraine offers the Kingdom a cost-effective alternative to expensive US-made interceptors by providing battle-tested drone technology that significantly reduces defense costs to USD 2k per unit from USD 3 mn. Kyiv also brings four years of frontline experience in exchange for the Gulf funding it hopes to secure, while shifting US priorities strain global munitions stockpiles.

Sports

Meet our new head coach: Georgios Donis has been officially appointed as the Saudi national team’s head coach until July 2027, replacing Hervé Renard less than two months before the World Cup in North America, the Saudi Arabian Football Federation said on X. The former Greece international most recently managed Al Khaleej and has been involved in Saudi football since 2021.

Another Asian Champions League title under our belt: Al Ahli successfully defended its AFC Champions League Elite title yesterday, after a showdown with Japan’s Machida Zelvia. A goal earned in extra-time settled the game at 1-0, securing Al Ahli’s win.

And speaking of the league: We will take up five spots in the league starting next season following the Asian Football Confederation’s decision to increase the number of participating clubs to 32. We will have three automatic berths, up from two, and two playoff spots.

Surj to partner with US partners for sports + entertainment operations JV: The Public Investment Fund’s Surj Sports Investment is in talks with ticketing giant Live Nation and sports developer Oak View Group to establish a JV, Radia, to operate and promote entertainment and sports events in the Kingdom, people familiar with the matter told Semafor.

Radia is expected to focus on promoting Saudi-hosted music events to global audiences and may extend to sports tournaments, operating a network of arenas and stadiums across the country. The agreement is potentially set to be announced next month.

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The big story abroad

Shots fired: President Donald Trump was uninjured and quickly escorted out following reports of shots fired at the White House correspondents' dinner, where he was due to speak, the New York Times reports. The story is still developing as we’re hitting send, but the suspect is in custody and no injuries were reported from the attack.

US-Iran peace talks have faced another setback, after Trump canceled a scheduled visit by two envoys to Islamabad yesterday. Trump cited “infighting and confusion” within Tehran’s leadership, suggesting that internal political instability is preventing diplomatic headway. Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had a “fruitful” sitdown with Pakistani officials in Islamabad, and questioned whether Washington is “truly serious about diplomacy,” he said in a social media post.

Sounding the alarm over the alleged theft of US intellectual property, the US State Department has pointed the finger at Chinese firms, including AI startup DeepSeek, according to a diplomatic cable seen by Reuters. Washington alleges that these firms are doing away with security protocols and bias safeguards after seizing the US’ proprietary AI models. The Chinese Embassy in Washington has rejected the accusations as baseless.

More layoffs in the tech world: Tech giants Meta and Microsoft have laid off some 20k jobs late last week, which coincides with the firms’ spending of USD hundreds of bns on their AI infrastructure. This has prompted some economists and industry experts to warn of an AI-related labor shortage, as some estimates place the number of tech workers laid off this year at 92k.

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2

THE BIG STORY TODAY

The final five

With five years left on the clock for Vision 2030, the government is increasingly bringing the private sector to the foreground as the primary engine to hit its goals by the end of the decade.

This shift is already visible in the numbers: The private sector’s contribution to GDP crossed the 51% mark in 2025, coming in above the 47% target, according to the Vision 2030 annual report (pdf). Its share of total investment has climbed to 76% compared to 60% when the reform program was launched, making it the dominant driver of capital formation in the Kingdom. The number of international investors operating in Saudi Arabia has also grown tenfold in the past decade, the report shows.

These figures underpin a structural logic: The third phase of Vision 2030 is centered firmly on “[sustaining] momentum and delivery against national priorities,” the report says. That delivery will be driven largely by the private sector, as the national privatization strategy is designed to accelerate asset transfers and scale public-private partnerships.

The FDI gap

Foreign direct investment — a flagship metric of Vision 2030 — remained below target in 2025. FDI inflows reached USD 35.5 bn (SAR 122.4 bn) last year, equivalent to 2.8% of GDP. That’s below the annual target of 3.4%. The report attributes the shortfall to a combination of global investment conditions and the pace of domestic GDP growth, noting that a more cautious environment for cross-border capital limited inflows relative to overall economic growth.

REMEMBER- The Kingdom introduced a series of reforms to attract FDI over the last year, including rent freezes, opening property ownership to foreigners, capital market liberalization, and a privatization strategy. Authorities are targeting USD 100 bn in annual FDI by 2030.

PIF’s evolving mandate

The Public Investment Fund’s (PIF) mandate is also shifting to bring the private sector into greater focus, the report notes. After serving as the architect and funder of major megaprojects in the past five years — from Neom to Diriyah to Qiddiya — PIF is now pivoting toward enabling more private sector participation, “with increased opportunities for investors across PIF’s portfolio.”

The fund’s AUM were essentially flat y-o-y after reaching USD 910 bn in 2024, which the report attributes to normal market movements rather than a strategic pullback, noting that the fund has diversified its portfolio since 2016. With the AUM growth phase largely complete, the attention for PIF is now turning its attention towards what that capital base can put into motion. PIF contributed around 10% of non-oil GDP in 2025 and supported job creation across its portfolio companies, which have grown to 103.

A deliberate direction: The fund generated over USD 10 bn in opportunity value through its platforms in 2025, qualified more than 300 Saudi companies to work across its portfolio, and integrated over 200 SMEs into active project pipelines. PIF’s local content target reached a preliminary 60% in 2025.

The PPP pipes

The goal of bringing in more of the private sector to drive growth rests in part on the pipeline of public-private partnerships (PPP), with the government working to improve the infrastructure for these projects. Saudi Arabia now ranks second globally (and first regionally) on the World Bank’s PPP Tendering Index, with its score rising to 92 from 83. The Contract Management Index also recorded the highest regional improvement last year, hitting 77 from 41.

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3

ECONOMY

Non-oil exports jump in February

Non-oil exports, including re-exports, rose 15.1% y-o-y in February, according to data (pdf) from the General Authority for Statistics. The growth was bolstered by a 28.5% rise in re-exports, with machinery and electrical equipment re-exports rising 59.9%.

The February trade data offers a pre-conflict snapshot of external sector dynamics, capturing performance just before the outbreak of the Iran war and providing a baseline to gauge the scale of any subsequent impact.

Oil and total trade: Merchandise exports increased 4.7% y-o-y, while oil exports saw a modest uptick of 0.6% during the same period. The share of oil exports within the total export portfolio decreased to 68.7%, down from 71.5% a year earlier.

The Kingdom’s merchandise trade surplus decreased slightly by 1.0% y-o-y in February 2026. Meanwhile, merchandise imports rose 6.6% y-o-y, and the ratio of non-oil exports to imports improved to 40.8%, compared to 37.8% in February 2025.

Machinery and electrical equipment emerged as the primary driver for non-oil exports in February, accounting for 25.5% of the total and marking a robust 56.1% y-o-y increase. Chemical products remained a significant contributor, representing 22.3% of non-oil exports and recording a 17.6% y-o-y growth.

On the import side, machinery and electrical equipment also held the top position, making up 30.5% of total imports and reflecting a 27.8% y-o-y increase. Transportation equipment and parts followed as the second most imported category at 11.6%, although this sector saw a 10.5% decline during the same period.

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4

INDUSTRY

Expanding Amiral petrochemical complex’s downstream industries

Jubail gets a downstream boost: The Amiral petrochemical complex in Jubail is set for further expansion after our Investment Ministry and Satorp — an Aramco and TotalEnergies refining JV — signed an agreement to develop and expand downstream industries linked to the USD 11 bn project, the Energy Ministry said on X.

The scope: The agreement focuses on scaling up chemicals and semi-finished products, improving production efficiency, reducing logistics costs, and making better use of domestic resources.

Why Amiral matters: Set to come online in 2027, Amiral is a part of Aramco’s liquids-to-chemicals push. Roughly half of its output will feed into advanced petrochemicals, while the rest is expected to be exported, helping widen Saudi Arabia’s non-oil trade base, according to state news agency SPA..

What’s inside the complex: Amiral contains a mixed-feed cracker with an annual capacity of 1.7 mn tons of ethylene (among the largest in the GCC), two polyethylene units of 500k tons per year each, a butadiene extraction unit, and several downstream derivatives. Feedstock will come from Satorp and Aramco, while hydrogen from the process will replace methane as fuel in refinery furnaces as part of decarbonization efforts.

How it fits into the Jubail ecosystem: Beyond the main plant, Amiral is expected to unlock USD 4 bn of additional downstream investments in petrochemicals and chemical plants in Jubail. These new plants will rely on Amiral feedstock to produce carbon fibers, lubricants, drilling fluids, detergents, food additives, automotive parts, and tires.

Supporting utilities are already underway: In February, the Power and Water Utility Company for Jubail and Yanbu (Marafiq) reached financial close on a USD 500 mn (SAR 1.9 bn) wastewater treatment and reuse facility, which will convert industrial effluents into demineralized water for reuse at Amiral.

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5

EARNINGS WATCH

Earnings season reaches its peak

1Q 2026 corporate earnings showed a mixed performance, with banks and telecoms posting gains supported by volume growth and expanding customer bases and investment and agricultural firms reporting bottom-line declines amid higher costs and tough comparisons. Some industrial players, like Sabic Agri-Nutrients, managed to offset weaker volumes with higher global prices.

Kingdom Holding

Kingdom Holding’s bottom line retreated 38% y-o-y to SAR 269 mn in 1Q 2026, which it attributed to last year’s one-off dividend gains, the company said in its latest earnings release (pdf). While overall revenue slipped 23% y-o-y to SAR 573 mn, the firm’s hotels and other operating revenues rose 11%.

Saudi Awwal Bank

Saudi Awwal Bank’s net income edged down 2.3% y-o-y to SAR 2.1 bn, weighed by higher operating expenses and increased provisions for expected credit losses amid elevated uncertainty. Meanwhile, financing income rose 3.3% y-o-y to SAR 4.4 bn and investment income saw a modest 0.5% uptick to SAR 1.1 bn.

Alinma Bank

Alinma Bank reported an 11.3% y-o-y rise in net income to SAR 1.7 bn in 1Q 2026, underpinned by a 7% jump in total operating income, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. Financing income ticked up 6.9% y-o-y to SAR 3.8 bn, while investment income jumped 10.1% to SAR 624.5 mn on higher financing and investment volumes.

Dividends: The bank’s board decided on a dividend distribution totaling SAR 747.5 mn for the quarter, equivalent to SAR 0.25 per share, with distribution set for 20 May.

Mobily

Etihad Etisalat Co. (Mobily) loggeda bottom line of SAR 880 mn last quarter, up 14.7% y-o-y. Revenue increased 5.5% y-o-y to SAR 5 bn, thanks to broad-based growth across revenue streams and a larger subscriber base.

Sabic Agri-Nutrients

Sabic Agri-Nutrients posted a 25% y-o-y jump in net income to SAR 1.2 bn despite a 7% y-o-y dip in revenue to SAR 2.9 bn, it said in its latest earnings release (pdf). Although sales volumes fell, the company’s bottom line was bolstered by rising global fertilizer prices stemming from market tightness — driven by supply disruptions — along with heavy stockpiling in Africa and India.

Nadec

The National Agricultural Development Company (Nadec) saw its net incomedrop 9.4% y-o-y to SAR 93.7 mn in 1Q 2026, hit by lower sales, higher cost of sales, and SAR 5.9 mn in joint venture losses. Revenue slid 9.3% y-o-y to SAR 917.9 mn over the same period, as a dip in agriculture, dairy, and beverage sales outweighed a 29.9% rise in protein sales.

Jamjoom Pharma

Jamjoom Pharma posted a 7% y-o-y increase in net income to SAR 168.2 mn for 1Q 2026, it said in an earnings release (pdf). CEO Tarek Hosni credited the performance to “effective cost discipline, enhanced operating leverage, and a clear focus on value-accretive growth.” The firm’s top line grew 5% y-o-y to SAR 481.4 mn, driven by steady demand for key brands and broader geographic diversification.

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6

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Dallah Healthcare becomes Al Ahsa Medical’s sole owner

Dallah Healthcare acquired the remaining 2.59% stake in Al Ahsa Medical Services in a SAR 10.9 mn transaction, taking full ownership of the medical services provider, it said in a Tadawul disclosure. Dallah snapped up the minority stake from four individual shareholders.

REFRESHER- Dallah last summer acquired Ayyan’s 97.4% stake in Al Ahsa for SAR 409 mn and its 100% stake in Al Salam for SAR 251 mn via a capital increase.

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7

PLANET FINANCE

Shifting sentiment

It’s a battle between the greenback and emerging market currencies as the outlook for the war and the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz changes by the hour.

The USD was down by roughly 2.3% against its peers since its late-March peak, losing value against virtually all major currencies bar Japan’s JPY, the Financial Times reports. The EUR has also clawed back nearly all of its losses since the start of the US’s war with Iran, and riskier wagers in emerging markets were also seeing gains at the USD’s expense.

And after regaining some ground on Thursday, the greenback lost ground over the weekend thanks to pressure from two fronts: the Justice Department’s closure of a probe into Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and rising hopes for a resolution to the US-Iran conflict. The USD index, which measures the value of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.28% to 98.55 on Friday.

Heading into the weekend, EM currencies and equities saw a dip as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz persisted and prospects of US-Iran negotiations remain unclear. MSCI's gauge for emerging market currencies shed 0.2%.

What’s happening? Since the conflict began, the greenback has been enjoying a rebound in its safe-haven status, clawing its way back into investors’ favor, while other defensive asset classes like bonds and gold took a hit. However, recent ceasefire negotiations and hopes of an end to the war are sending mixed signals, providing a bit of hope for risky assets but keeping volatility high amid ongoing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.

While “risk sentiment is improving,” as BNY’s Geoffrey Yu noted, the prospect of the Fed cutting interest rates is clouding the USD outlook. A simultaneous likely uptick in European rates on the back of higher energy costs means foreign capital will probably be looking elsewhere to deposit their funds to secure higher yields.

The outlook: The USD is likely to continue to fall until the war ends as increasingly unpredictable US policy pushes investors to roll back their exposure to US assets. Meanwhile, as things stand, Wall Street lenders predict the EUR will rise to USD 1.2 next year, up from USD 1.175 now, while the GBP is also set to inch up.

Conflict duration is the key decider: “The conflict will dictate the near-term direction,” Vanguard’s Roger Hallam said, indicating that the wider macro environment is pointing to a weaker USD.

Now analysts see a ceasefire as the likely outcome: “Our base case remains that it is in the interest of both parties to come to a deal [...] despite hiccups,” Jeffries’ chief Europe economist Mohit Kumar said.

TASI

11,110

-1.2% (YTD: +5.9%)

MSCI Tadawul 30

1,489

-1.4% (YTD: +7.3%)

NomuC

22,851

0.0% (YTD: -1.9%)

USD : SAR (SAMA)

USD 3.75 Sell

USD 3.75 Buy

Interest rates

4.25% repo

3.75% reverse repo

EGX30

52,375

+0.8% (YTD: +25.2%)

ADX

9,789

+0.4% (YTD: -2.0%)

DFM

5,854

+0.7% (YTD: -3.2%)

S&P 500

7,165

+0.8% (YTD: +4.5%)

FTSE 100

10,379

-0.8% (YTD: +4.3%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,883

-0.2% (YTD: +0.6%)

Brent crude

USD 105.33

+0.3%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.52

-3.5%

Gold

USD 4,741

+0.4%

BTC

USD 77,578

+0.2% (YTD: -11.5%)

Sukuk/bond market index

921.73

+0.3% (YTD: +0.3%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

151.77

-0.1% (YTD: -0.1%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

18.71

-3.1% (YTD: +29.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 1.2% on Thursday on turnover of SAR 6.0 bn. The index is up 5.9% YTD.

In the green: Saudi Darb (+8.1%), Petro Rabigh (+6.9%), and Baan (+6.1%).

In the red: Advanced (-6.8%), Sabic Agri-Nutrients (-5.1%), and Tasnee (-4.7%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC remained flat on Thursday on turnover of SAR 21.2 mn. The index is down 1.9% YTD.

In the green: IOud (+11.9%), Food Gate (+8.7%), and Knowledgenet (+8.5%).

In the red: SPC (-17.7%), Tharwah (-9.9%), and Lana (-9.4%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

The Company for Cooperative Ins.’ (Tawuniya) board recommended increasing its capital by 50% to SAR 2.25 bn by granting bonus shares, according to a Tadawul disclosure. Each shareholder will get one bonus share for every two shares held at the eligibility date. The move aims to support the firm’s expansion in the upcoming years.

Dividends: Tawuniya also recommended a dividend payment of SAR 300 mn for 2025, which is equivalent to SAR 2 per share, according to a separate disclosure.

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CALENDAR

MAY

3-9 May (Sunday-Sunday): The Global Sustainability Expo, The Arena Riyadh Venue.

19-21 May (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

24-28 May (Sunday-Thursday): Eid Al Adha holiday.

JUNE

15-17 June (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

22-24 June (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

JULY

6 July-23 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

AUGUST

31 August-3 Sep (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.

SEPTEMBER

9-10 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

9-10 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

12-15 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

NOVEMBER

24-28 November (Tuesday-Saturday): Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun, Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

  • The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh;
  • The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
  • Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
  • Capital Markets Forum takes place in March in Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

  • The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.
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