An IPO amid the war

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Our sports sector is expected to reach SAR 85 bn by 2030

Good morning, everyone. We celebrate the news this morning of an indefinite ceasefire extension between the US and Iran, after US President Donald Trump made the announcement hours before the ceasefire was set to expire. The extension gives the two nations more time to continue negotiations.

How indefinite are we talking? Trump said the ceasefire will be extended until Iran submits its proposal and “discussions are concluded, one way or the other.” Washington’s blockade will continue until an agreement is reached.

It remains unclear where Iran stands: In the absence of a response from Tehran’s top leadership, Iran’s Tasnim News Agency stated that Tehran never sought a ceasefire extension and reiterated threats to break the US blockade of its ports by force. An adviser to Iran’s lead negotiator dismissed Trump’s announcement as insignificant.

As expected, global oil prices retreated on the news, despite an initial uptick at the opening of Asian trading earlier this morning. Brent crude is currently down 0.4% to USD 98.09 per barrel.

Mixed market response: The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index eased 0.14%, dropping from a seven-week high. Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.5%, and South Korea’s Kospi eased around 0.6% in early trading this morning. US stocks are set to open in the green, with futures recording gains across the board.

We will be closely watching how local and regional markets react to the news when they open in a few hours.

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SPORTS — Saudi Arabia’s sports sector is expected to expand to SAR 85 bn by 2030, with current potential investments in the market totaling SAR 18 bn, the Investment Ministry’s Director of Sport Investment Development Basim Ibrahim told Asharq Business (watch, runtime: 4:43) on the sidelines of Riyadh’s Sports Investment Forum 2026.

Preparing for the 2034 World Cup: The ministry is working on launching several windows, including projects linked to sports infrastructure and preparations for hosting the 2034 World Cup. They include at least 135 training campsites across the Kingdom, with investment per site estimated at SAR 20-40 mn, bringing total expected investment to around SAR 5.4 bn.

What’s next? The ministry just launched a SAR 1 bn investment window to develop a sports city in the Eastern Province. Companies can submit proposals for the upcoming projects and begin development without waiting for formal tender rounds, as the camps form a core part of World Cup infrastructure requirements.

Why it matters: The SAR 5.4 bn training camp program signals the Kingdom’s intention to involve the private sector extensively in World Cup preparations, aiming to boost its local capabilities and economic development simultaneously. It also shows a shift toward faster execution, with developers able to submit proposals directly instead of going through traditional tender processes.

OIL — Yanbu crude loadings dropped to 3.5 mn bbl / d last week, down 17% w-o-w and the lowest since mid-March. The decline is a sharp pullback from the early-April run rate of 4.2 mn bbl / d — brushing up against a 4.3 mn bbl / d record set in late March.

Why Yanbu matters: It has effectively become the Kingdom’s only crude export valve while flows through Hormuz remain constrained.

The caveat: Kpler points to a shift away from VLCC-heavy loadings toward Aframax and Suezmax cargoes in the week of 13 April — a smaller average cargo size translated directly into lower headline throughput.

Infrastructure isn’t the constraint — at least on paper, with the East-West pipeline back at 7 mn bbl / d after repairs from being hit. But the port hasn’t sustained throughput above its 5 mn bbl / d nameplate capacity.

SPORTS — PIF-backed LIV Golf has rebranded its team, formerly known as Smash GC, as OKGC, which will be based in Oklahoma and led by Talor Gooch, according to a press release. The move makes OKGC the league’s first team “aligned with a US market.” The team is set to make its competitive debut during the LIV Golf Virginia tournament, held in early May.

Data point

43.6 mn — that’s the number of digital transactions the Absher platform processed in March, the Saudi Gazette reports, citing Interior Ministry data. Individuals completed more than 41.3 mn transactions, including 31.2 mn via digital wallets, while businesses carried out nearly 2.2 mn transactions.

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The big story abroad

The global front pages are focused on Trump’s announcement of an extended ceasefire between the US and Iran, which we dive into in the news well, above. Also making headlines this morning:

How did Warsh’s confirmation hearing go? Trump’s Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh affirmed the Fed’s independence during his Senate confirmation hearing, stating that Trump has not attempted to “predetermine, commit, fix or decide on any interest rate decision.” Warsh called for major reforms at the Fed, including a new framework for handling inflation, and took issue with the central bank’s “forward guidance” — the practice of signaling the future trajectory of rates.

And your daily dose of AI news: SpaceX has gained the “right to acquire” AI startup Cursor for USD 60 bn, agreeing to pay USD 10 bn if it does not proceed with the transaction. The potential acquisition of Cursor — which enables users to edit code with AI — is seen as a way for Elon Musk to catch up in the AI race ahead of SpaceX’s IPO.

The show goes on

Dar Al Balad is about to become the Gulf’s first IPO since the war started. The IT services outfit is pushing ahead with plans to float a 30% stake on Tadawul’s main market, making it the first company in the region to launch a share sale since the US-Iran war broke out. The offering is reportedly expected to raise up to USD 75 mn, unnamed sources told Bloomberg.

The details: Selling shareholder Dar Al Balad Commercial Company is offloading 21 mn shares — a flat 30% of the company — at a price to be determined via book-building, according to the prospectus released yesterday. As a secondary offering, the entirety of the proceeds will go to the seller.

Participating parties get first dibs on all 21 mn shares, but retail investors can claim up to 30% (6.3 mn shares) if demand shows up. The minimum retail ticket is 10 shares, while the maximum is 100k. The controlling shareholder is locked up for six months post-listing.

The timeline:

Institutional book-building: 26-30 April;
Retail subscription: 10-14 May;
Final allocation: 18 May;
Refunds (if any): by 21 May;
Listing on Tadawul: shortly after, pending the usual regulatory box-ticking.

Who is Dar Al Balad anyway? The company started in 2001 as a one-man IT shop in Riyadh, founded by Ibrahim Bin Salamah — a former vice chairman and MD at Sabic. It has spent the last 25 years building out IT managed services, consulting, and business solutions for banks, insurers, brokerages, and government bodies. In January 2025, it picked up GSC Solutions (formerly Global Specialty Chemicals), a Dammam-based industrial chemicals outfit, giving it a second leg in industrial services. Headcount sits north of 850, with branches in three Saudi regions in addition to footprints in Bahrain and Qatar.

The numbers look healthy: Revenue came in at SAR 315 mn (about USD 84 mn) in 2025, up 30% y-o-y. Net income was up 28% to SAR 51 mn. Two years of double-digit growth isn’t bad for a company trying to attract investors during a regional conflict.

About that conflict: Saudi stocks have held up better than you would expect since the fighting started in late February. Higher oil prices have propped up the heavyweights — Aramco chief among them — even as repeated strikes on energy infrastructure have dragged on production and exports. Things calmed down somewhat after the US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire earlier this month, though markets have given back some of those gains as doubts over the peace talks creep back in.

The prospectus doesn’t sugarcoat it. The risk factors section flags that the company’s offices sit “near neighboring countries” where operations could be disrupted and points to the possibility that regional diplomatic or economic fallout could weigh on the Saudi economy, foreign direct investment, and ultimately the company’s own prospects.

Why Dar Al Balad is going public now: It probably has to. The company got CMA approval back in December, and that approval lapses in June if the listing doesn’t happen. Bloomberg reports that a Saudi contractor and a real estate developer are in the same boat, racing to list before their own approvals expire.

What to watch: Pricing is expected after book-building closes on 30 April. Whether the book-building clears at a decent valuation will tell us a lot about institutional appetite right now. Two smaller regional names listed since the war started made a splash, with Kuwait's Trolley General Trading up 42% and Saudi miner Saleh Abdulaziz Al Rashed up 30%.

ADVISORS- AlJazira Capital is running the transaction as financial advisor, lead manager, and underwriter, with Emirates NBD acting as joint bookrunner. Baker McKenzie is counsel.

ALSO- The pipeline keeps moving: The CMA also greenlit bottled water player Berain to offer 66 mn shares — a 30% stake — on Tadawul's main market. The company is owned by Rajhi Invest — with a 40% stake held by GOSI's investment arm Hassana since March 2025 — and runs three plants in Riyadh and Jeddah plus 24 retail outlets.

A Berain listing would make it the second bottled water name on TASI after Naqi, while Nomu already hosts Jouf Water and Sama.

Big banks shrug off the war

The sector’s heavyweights beat expectations in 1Q, and the smaller names held their own. Every major Tadawul-listed lender grew its bottom line y-o-y in the first quarter, with Al Rajhi and Saudi National Bank (SNB) both coming in ahead of analyst estimates. A quick run-through:

#1- Al Rajhi Bank saw net income climb 14.3% y-o-y to SAR 6.8 bn, edging past the SAR 6.6 bn consensus from Bloomberg-polled analysts. Operating income did most of the heavy lifting, up 14.4% on stronger financing and investment income, banking fees, and FX gains — enough to more than offset an 18.2% jump in expenses and a 20.2% rise in impairment charges. Financing income rose 12.2% y-o-y to SAR 12.3 bn, while investment income held roughly flat at SAR 2.2 bn.

Dividend watch: Al Rajhi will pay out SAR 7 bn for 2H 2025 at SAR 1.75 per share, per a separate disclosure (pdf). Distribution kicks off Thursday, 30 April.

#2- Saudi National Bank posted a 6.7% y-o-y rise in net income to SAR 6.4 bn, also ahead of the Bloomberg estimate of SAR 6.2 bn. Total operating expenses dropped 19.4%, while operating income barely moved (up 0.4%). Financing income rose 4.4% y-o-y to SAR 11.4 bn, while investment income slipped 1.1% to SAR 3.4 bn.

#3- Riyad Bank logged a 5.1% y-o-y increase in net income to SAR 2.6 bn. Stronger trading and special commission income, a narrower loss on non-trading investments, and lower impairment charges on credit and financial assets did the work. Financing income was up 5.9% y-o-y to SAR 6 bn, while investment income jumped 17.4% to SAR 815.3 mn.

#4- Arab National Bank’s net income grew 4.2% y-o-y to SAR 1.4 bn. Gains across special commissions, dividends, and trading — plus better valuations on non-trading instruments and a smaller ECL provision — drove the uplift. Financing revenues rose 6.9% y-o-y to SAR 3.1 bn, while investment income surged 35.5% to SAR 867 mn.

#5- Banque Saudi Fransi delivered a 3.2% y-o-y rise in net income to SAR 1.3 bn. Operating income ticked up 2.7%, partially offset by a 1.9% rise in expenses. Financing income grew 3.9% y-o-y to SAR 3.7 bn, and investment income rose 15.4% to SAR 742 mn.

#6- Bank AlJazira rounded out the group with 12.2% y-o-y growth in net income to SAR 405 mn. A 7% uptick in operating income — helped by financing and investment yields, fair value gains, and dividends — offset a 2% rise in expenses and softer fee and FX income. Financing income was up 8.8% y-o-y to SAR 1.7 bn, while investment income rose 7.5% to SAR 534.2 mn.

ALSO FROM EARNINGS LAND- Aldrees Petroleum and Transport Services Co. posted an 8.9% y-o-y increase in net income to SAR 110.1 mn in 1Q 2026, it said in a Tadawul disclosure. Growth was driven by stronger petrol and transport divisions, higher deposits, and improved returns from joint ventures and sukuk. Revenue also gained 17.2% y-o-y to SAR 6.8 bn thanks to a service station network expansion and a larger truck fleet.

A new Riyadh real estate fund in the works, SVC backs Growth Catalyst Fund

Ayyan Investment, Al Rajhi Capital to launch SAR 500 mn real estate fund

Ayyan Investment and Al Rajhi Capital are moving to set up a private real estate fund targeting SAR 500 mn after locking in an agreement on the fund’s terms and conditions, Ayyan said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The fund will own and develop a mixed-use project on an 83.4k sqm land plot in Riyadh’s Al Janadriyah district. Ayyan will participate through an in-kind contribution by transferring ownership of the land, building on a previously signed MoU with Al Rajhi Capital and Sumou Holding Company.

SVC backs Growth Catalyst Fund for growth-stage companies

Saudi Venture Capital (SVC) invested an undisclosed sum in the Growth Catalyst Fund, according to a press release. The fund — established in 2024 and managed by Growth Catalyst Investment Company — targets growth-stage companies in Saudi Arabia and the wider GCC.

It focuses on sectors like healthcare, education, renewable energy, and food and beverage and aims to support the regional expansion of mid-sized firms. With a target size of USD 150-200 mn, the fund pairs financing with operational support.

Rising rates squeeze private credit funds

Private credit funds are facing mounting funding pressure as borrowing costs rise and banks tighten lending conditions. Lenders are restricting liquidity to the sector, while investors are demanding higher returns to provide capital, the Financial Times reports.

By the numbers: The premium required to lend to private credit funds rose by 0.34 percentage points in 2026 and 0.83 points since the beginning of last year, according to JPMorgan data cited by the salmon-colored paper.

REMEMBER- The sector has been seeing a rise in redemption requests from wealthy investors. Investors are concerned over weak lending standards in private credit after a series of corporate collapses, including Tricolor, First Brands, and Market Financial Solutions. AI disrupting the business models of tech and software sectors is also a major concern.

Banks tighten new commitments

Rising funding costs coincided with a decline in bond issuance by business development companies (BDCs), which act as flagship private credit vehicles. These firms sold around USD 6.8 bn of bonds in 1Q 2026, down 22% y-o-y and 36% from their performance in 2024. “We are staying away from BDCs,” Loomis, Sayles & Company portfolio manager Brian Kennedy told the Financial Times, arguing that the economics don’t compensate for sector risk.

Banks and traditional lenders that provide large credit facilities are also increasing pricing on new commitments. These facilities are critical to the sector’s financing model, allowing funds to borrow against their loan portfolios and amplify returns.

Shorter-dated maturities are gaining appeal

Issuers are currently using shorter-dated maturities to manage interest costs. Blue Owl private credit fund raised USD 400 mn through a two-year investment-grade bond sold directly to Pimco in a bilateral transaction, rather than through a public syndicated offering. Goldman Sachs Private Credit also secured USD 750 mn at a floating rate of 2.55 percentage points above US Treasuries.

Investor due diligence also intensified: “Now it is three weeks of investors underwriting the sectors and the names […] and if you have a position marked at 92 cents on the USD but someone else has it marked at 86, they want to talk to the [transaction] team,” Beach Point Capital’s portfolio manager Benjamin Hunsaker said.

The alternative

Some managers are turning to structured credit markets, where strong demand from insurers and other investors is helping keep borrowing costs lower, Hunsaker said. Blackstone raised USD 450 mn last month through a collateralized loan obligation for its flagship private credit fund, providing a static structure that prevents the manager from trading the underlying assets to boost investor confidence.

TASI	11,345	-0.2% (YTD: +8.2%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,523	-0.4% (YTD: +9.8%)
NomuC	22,860	0.0% (YTD: -1.9%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	51,977	+0.3% (YTD: +24.3%)
ADX	9,861	+0.2% (YTD: -1.3%)
DFM	5,878	+0.3% (YTD: -2.8%)
S&P 500	7,064	-0.6% (YTD: +3.0%)
FTSE 100	10,498	-1.1% (YTD: +5.5%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,930	-0.9% (YTD: +1.4%)
Brent crude	USD 98.09	-0.4%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.70	0.0%
Gold	USD 4,736	+0.3%
BTC	USD 75,512	-0.6% (YTD: -13.8%)
Sukuk/bond market index	922.30	-0.1% (YTD: +0.3%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.99	-0.1% (YTD: +0.1%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	19.55	+3.6% (YTD: +34.73%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 0.2% yesterday on turnover of SAR 5.6 bn. The index is up 8.1% YTD.

In the green: Baan (+9.9%), Saudi German Health (+4.7%), and SHL (+4.1%).

In the red: Sabic Agri Nutrients (-3.9%), Chemanol (-3.5%), and Nice One (-2.9%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC remained unchanged yesterday on turnover of SAR 31.5 mn. The index is down 1.9% YTD.

In the green: Mufeed (+9.0%), Aqaseem (+6.8%), and First Avenue (+4.5%).

In the red: Knowledgenet (-6.8%), Molan (-5.7%), and Group Five (-5.6%).

CALENDAR

APRIL

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Sports Investment Forum (SIF), Riyadh.

MAY

3-9 May (Sunday-Sunday): The Global Sustainability Expo, The Arena Riyadh Venue.

19-21 May (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

24-28 May (Sunday-Thursday): Eid Al Adha holiday.

JUNE

15-17 June (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

22-24 June (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

JULY

6 July-23 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

AUGUST

31 August-3 Sep (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.

SEPTEMBER

9-10 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

9-10 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

12-15 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

NOVEMBER

24-28 November (Tuesday-Saturday): Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun, Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production;
September: Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center;
November: The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia;
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh;
The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah;
SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh;
The Intervision international music competition will take place in Saudi Arabia.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh;
The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
Capital Markets Forum takes place in March in Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

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Today at a glance

Our sports sector is expected to reach SAR 85 bn by 2030