East-West pipeline hit

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

US-Iran negotiations, Pakistani jets, and more

Good morning, all. It’s another morning with the regional war dominating the local and international news cycles, with all eyes closely watching the aftermath of the unfruitful US-Iran negotiations.

Pakistan is already making good on the joint defense agreement, sending fighter jets to the King Abdulaziz air base yesterday, according to our Defense Ministry. The posturing aims to “strengthen joint defense cooperation and support regional and international security and stability,” with an unnamed Pakistani official telling Reuters the forces are “not there to attack anyone.”

Still, the timing raises concerns: US-Iran negotiations started in Islamabad yesterday amid a fragile ceasefire before coming to a close in the early hours of the morning. Despite earlier reports of the two sides agreeing to exchange documents and revisit the negotiations table later today “despite some remaining differences,” US Vice President JD Vance — who led the talks — has left Pakistan, leaving the future of the negotiations up in the air.

The sticking points: Tehran is reportedly aiming to secure control over the Strait of Hormuz, the release of frozen assets, war reparations, and a ceasefire for Lebanon. The Trump administration is seeking to resume shipping through the waterway and an end to Iran’s enrichment of uranium.

Iranian attacks on GCC countries virtually stopped, but not before delivering a hit to our East-West pipeline responsible for rerouting oil shipments away from the closed strait. We have the details in today’s big story, below.

WEATHER- Storms keep rolling: Heavy thunderstorms are still hanging overhead in Jazan, Asir, and Al Baha with showers also expected across Najran, Makkah, Riyadh, the Eastern Province, and the Northern Borders. Meanwhile, Al-Jawf and Tabuk are in for windy weather, kicking up dust that cuts visibility to near zero.

Riyadh: 31°C high / 22°C low;
Jeddah: 31°C high / 21°C low;
Makkah: 34°C high / 22°C low;
Dammam: 30°C high / 22°C low.

Some schools are going remote: Heavy rains have prompted schools across a number of cities to shift to online learning today. Some universities have also suspended in-person learning, including Taif University, King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, King Faisal University, Al Baha University, and King Khalid University.

Watch this space

AVIATION — The ceasefire is starting to ease pressure on regional skies, with flights gradually coming back online in Saudi and beyond. Saudia resumed services to Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Amman on Saturday, while Flynas is bringing back its Dubai flights today, and rolling out a Riyadh-Qaisumah route but keeping several international suspensions in place until 15 April.

The Kingdom is also absorbing spillover traffic, as Dammam and Qaisumah airports handle rerouted traffic from closed markets like Kuwait, Asharq Business reports.

The region’s airlines are adapting unevenly to the truce: Some markets are reopening — such as Iraq, and Syria — while others lag. Kuwait’s airspace is still shut, forcing airlines to reroute via Saudi airports, and Dubai has capped foreign carriers at one daily flight through May.

MEANWHILE- European regulators are keeping a lid on a full recovery. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has pushed its guidance to avoid Middle East airspace out to 24 April (from 10 April), signaling a cautious stance that’s slowing the return of European carriers. Until that advisory is lifted, foreign traffic — especially from Europe — is unlikely to rebound to pre-conflict levels, capping regional connectivity.

Data point

52.1 points — that’s where the Kingdom’s Business Confidence Index (BCI)(pdf) stood in March, dropping 14.2% m-o-m from 60.7 in February, and sitting just above the 50-point neutral level. Sector-level readings also remained in optimistic territory, despite facing declines, with industry confidence at 50.8 points (down 15.8% m-o-m), services confidence at 52.0 (down 14.9% m-o-m), and construction confidence at 53.0 points (down 12.6% m-o-m).

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The big story abroad

The unfruitful US-Iran negotiations are dominating the front pages this morning. We dive into it all in the news well, above.

MEANWHILE- Qatar is waving a green flag to shippers: Qatar’s Transport Ministry announced a full return to maritime navigation starting today, with ships permitted to travel between 6am and 6pm local time.

And in the world of AI: Japan has greenlit JPY 631.5 bn (c. USD 4 bn) in additional subsidies to boost research and development at Tokyo-based chipmaker Rapidus. The startup — which has so far received some JPY 2.4 tn in research and development funding — aims to roll out its cutting-edge 2-nanometer chips by next year.

HAPPENING TOMORROW- The IMF and World Bank’s spring meetings kick off tomorrow and the regional war will be taking center stage. And the mood walking into the meetings is anything but hopeful, with IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warning that the global economy is becoming less able to respond to shocks and that growth downgrades are coming.

We’ll be watching for the IMF’s updated growth forecasts this week. The World Economic Outlook comes out on Tuesday, followed by the Regional Economic Outlook on Thursday.

East-West pipeline hit

Our Red Sea oil escape route has been hit in a wave of strikes that damaged the Kingdom’s energy infrastructure last week, an Energy Ministry official told SPA. Among other targets, the attacks hit the East-West pipeline — our only real workaround while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

The damage report: The strike hit a pumping station on the East-West Pipeline, which reduced throughput by about 700k bbl / d.

Part of a broader bank of targets: Recent attacks on Manifa and Khurais production facilities reduced capacity by around 300k bbl / d each. Refining assets — including Satorp in Jubail, Ras Tanura, Samref in Yabnu, and Riyadh refinery — were also recently hit, and fires at Ju’aymah processing facilities disrupted LPG and NGL shipments, the official confirmed.

Why it matters

With the Strait of Hormuz still blocked, the hit to the East-West pipeline damaged Saudi’s only remaining exit route for oil. This pipeline was our emergency bypass, running at a maxed-out 7 mn bbl / d and pushing 5 mn bbl / d of it for export to keep at least half our usual volumes moving.

Reading the flow by 10% of max capacity might not seem a big deal — but the pipeline is a guardrail for global prices. This bypass is credited with preventing oil prices from hitting catastrophic highs by alleviating the loss of some 15 mn bbl / d that used to pass through the strait.

The pinch is still in transit: Red Sea exports won't drop immediately. It takes several days for oil to travel the pipeline from Yanbu, meaning the impact of the strikes won't hit the terminals for a few more days, according to Bloomberg.

For now, the market is calm. Both Brent crude and WTI are holding below the USD 100 mark as of Saturday. Locally, gas prices are staying put too, with Aramco keeping 95-octane at SAR 2.33 and 91-octane at SAR 2.18, Okaz reports.

Meanwhile, the strait is barely moving: Only nine vessels have passed through Hormuz since Thursday despite the ceasefire, compared to the pre-war 135, Asharq Business reports, citing data gathered by Bloomberg and Marine Traffic data.

The strikes come at a sensitive diplomatic moment, as US and Iranian negotiators, led by Vice President JD Vance and including Jared Kushner, meet in Islamabad for peace talks. Pipeline attacks raise questions over how long the ceasefire will hold.

Our take

If Iran is indeed behind the attack, this looks like an attempt to turn the strait into a high-stakes toll booth. With Saudi’s backup routes damaged, Iran could funnel global energy traffic back into a waterway it fully controls — where safe passage reportedly comes with a USD 2 mn price tag per ship. This monopolization of GCC energy flows would give the country a massive revenue stream and an even bigger bargaining chip for the ongoing peace talks.

What’s next?

The Kingdom could maintain steady export levels by diverting oil away from its own local refineries, power stations, and desalination plants. This would keep oil revenues flowing, prevent a global supply shock and keep prices in check.

BUT- The move would risk domestic power and water security at a time where several major projects are in development.

An alternative scenario would be prioritizing the home front: Saudi Arabia could cut oil exports to secure local energy and water needs. While this keeps the lights on at home, it would cut into oil revenues and give Iran even more leverage over global energy supplies.

Brace for uneven 1Q performance

Sico Bank’s 1Q 2026 forecasts for Tadawul-listed firms reveal a market in transition, projecting a divergent earnings performance across sectors as regional geopolitical tensions begin to weigh on the kingdom’s corporate landscape, it said in its quarterly preview (pdf). While heavyweight lenders like Al Rajhi Bank and industrial giants like Maaden show resilience, cement and transportation sectors are set to face a slowdown in their net income.

Geopolitics on the income statements

Ramadan helped cushion the war’s blow: The conflict began in the third month of the quarter, overlapping with Ramadan — traditionally a slow period for many sectors, Sico’s Group Head of Research Chiro Ghosh tells EnterpriseAM. That means the immediate impact on earnings “would remain lower than market expectations.” For now, Sico’s projections are “factoring in more sector-specific effects rather than a broad-based impact” across the market.

Who Hormuz is hitting hardest: Ghosh flags that sectors “dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for their supply chains would be the most adversely affected,” particularly real estate, hospitality, and aviation. The impact would also filter into manufacturing.and basic material companies.

Banks are holding steady at the top: Al Rajhi Bank is set to lead 1Q earnings with a 7% y-o-y rise in net income to SAR 6.3 bn, while Alinma Bank posts the fastest growth at 9% to SAR 1.6 bn. ANB, however, is moving in the opposite direction, with earnings expected to fall 13%. The broader picture still points to stability among heavyweights like Riyad Bank, SAB, and SNB.

Watch the dividend safety margin: Banks are set to deliver a 9% y-o-y loan growth, driven by corporates, but higher funding costs are likely to pressure margins and compress NIMs. Asset quality should hold steady, though banks are expected to book higher provisions. Ghosh notes that while no banks have signaled dividend cuts yet, they are now a “viable option” if the conflict persists.

The saving grace? Ghosh expects the Saudi Central Bank to potentially relax capital requirements to help banks maintain payouts.

Momentum in IT services is expected to be softer, due to 1Q being a seasonally weaker period. In telecom, the pre-paid segment may see a decline as tourism slows. Elm continues to push ahead with a 9% increase, while Mobily posts a steady 8% gain. Meanwhile, STC is expected to see earnings drop 12% to SAR 3.2 bn.

The industrials

The cement sector is off to a tough start in 2026 after stronger pricing in the same period last year inflated comparisons. Nearly all major players are facing double-digit declines, led by Yamama Cement (-55%) and City Cement (-52%). Arabian Cement is the sole outlier, with earnings projected to rise 19%.

As for basic materials and mining, Maaden is expected to post an 82% y-o-y increase to SAR 2.8 bn, and Sabid Agri is expected to rise 63% to SAR 1.6 bn, while Advanced Petrochemical heads the other way with a 37% decline.

Consumer and transportation

Retail is looking strong, as staples benefit from the Ramadan effect. Americana leads with an expected 86% jump in net income, while BinDawood (+10%), Al Othaim (+5%), and Leejam (+5%) are all expected to post steady gains.

Healthcare to see mixed results amid timing and expenses: Healthcare revenue growth is expected to be weighed down by heightened geopolitical concerns late in the quarter and the timing of Ramadan. Front-loaded expenses for upcoming hospitals may offset gains from new facilities. Still, Suliman Al Habib is set to buck the trend with a 15% earnings climb, Care should remain positive at 2%, while Mouwasat faces a 14% drop.

In transportation, disruptions will take a toll: Aviation companies like SAL and SGS are likely to feel the impact of March 2026 airspace restrictions and flight cancellations. Airlines such as Air Arabia and Jazeera are expected to be hit the hardest.

The takeaway

Ghosh believes the “impact will be limited in the first quarter results,” but cautions that if the conflict persists, investors should expect a more pronounced effect in the second quarter. While the majority of firms will likely be “affected either directly or indirectly,” Ghosh highlights consumer staples and select logistics companies as the defensive plays likely to “report more favorable results” in the coming months.

Jozo bags SAR 8.3 mn in seed funding, Basma Adeem to acquire Al-Ajaji clinics

Jozo closes seed round

Proptech tokenization platform Jozo raised SAR 8.3 mn in a seed round led by Sheikh Hamad bin Sunaidan, who joins as a strategic partner,with additional backing from angel investors, it said in a LinkedIn statement. The funds will go to accelerating operational expansion, developing its technology, and expanding its investor base by rolling out more investment opportunities.

FYI- Jozo is among the proptech firms licensed under the Real Estate General Authority’s tokenization sandbox, with regulations expected to be issued in June.

Tokenization? We broke down the Kingdom’s shift toward digital real estate deeds — how it works and what it means for the market — in our deep dive here.

Basma Adeem eyes full takeover of Qassim clinic operator

Basma Adeem moves to acquire Al-Ajaji dental and dermatology clinics: Basma Adeem Medical Company signed a non-binding MoU with Al-Ajaji Trading Company to acquire 100% of Fahad Abdullah Al-Ajaji Dental Complex Company, a Qassim-based operator of dental and dermatology clinics, according to a Tadawul disclosure. The transaction covers all three of the operator’s branches, along with its assets and liabilities.

What’s next? The final valuation will be determined following due diligence, financial assessment, and regulatory approvals. The consideration is expected to include a mix of money, new share issuance, and deferred payments tied to performance.

EMs’ recovery short-lived as shaky ceasefire keeps volatility high

A cause for celebration for emerging market equities is on pause after the two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran was rocked by Israeli strikes on Lebanon and Iranian strikes on the Gulf.

ICYMI- Equity markets in our neck of the woods had rallied immediately after the ceasefire news, with Egypt’s EGX up 4.1% at the end of trading on Wednesday, Saudi’s Tadawul closing up 2.3%, and UAE equities catching a break with their biggest intraday rally in twelve years. The EGP also gained roughly 2.5% on the greenback, with analysts predicting recovery momentum could hold.

But it didn’t last too long. The ceasefire cracked and EM markets slumped, with currencies and equities dipping for the first time in five days, Bloomberg reports. The MSCI Index tracking equities in developing nations was down 0.9%, and EM currencies were down 0.3%. Energy import-dependent markets in Asia drove the slump, as movement through Hormuz stayed sticky.

EMs were hit by a massive rout at the start of the war, with Institute of International Finance data showing that USD 70.3 bn was pulled from EM assets, with USD 56 bn pulled just from EM stocks. Meanwhile, the USD clawed its way back as the safe haven of choice for investors.

Pockets of resilience are pushing a neutral outlook for EMs: In its latest Weekly Market Commentary, BlackRock’s Wei Li wrote that the firm is opting for a policy of “quality and selectivity” when it comes to EMs, pointing to pockets of resilience from net energy exporters helping to buoy emerging market equities.

The asset management giant is also bullish on EM USD-denominated debt, shielding from currency volatility, markets that are relatively shielded from the regional conflict, like South America, and infrastructure assets linked to the AI buildout.

Will the recovery pick up again? For now, the risks are still there but are being offset somewhat by the ceasefire, Generali Asset Management’s Guillaume Tresca told the news outlet. Confidence is still low, and volatility is high, with analysts slashing predictions of interest rate cuts.

TASI	11,343	0.0 (YTD: +8.1%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,530	+0.2% (YTD: +10.3%)
NomuC	22,671	+0.2% (YTD: -2.7%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	49,079	+1.0 (YTD: +17.3%)
ADX	9,838	0.0% (YTD: -1.5%)
DFM	5,715	+0.4% (YTD: -5.5%)
S&P 500	6,817	-0.1% (YTD: -0.4%)
FTSE 100	10,601	0.0% (YTD: +6.7%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,926	+0.5% (YTD: +2.3%)
Brent crude	USD 95.20	-0.8%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.65	-0.8%
Gold	USD 4,787	-0.6%
BTC	USD 73,449	+0.8% (YTD: -16.2%)
Sukuk/bond market index	913.96	-0.5% (YTD: -0.6%)
S&P MENA bond & sukuk	150.77	+0.3% (YTD: -0.7%)
VIX (Fear gauge)	19.23	-1.3% (YTD: +28.6%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI was flat on Thursday on turnover of SAR 5.4 bn. The index is up 8.1% YTD.

In the green: Al Wasail Industrial (+5.2%), Petro Rabigh (+4.3%), and Gulf Union AlAhlia (+3.9%).

In the red: SRMG (-4.1%), Saco (-3.9%), and Naseej (-3.7%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 0.2% on Thursday on turnover of SAR 21 mn. The index is down 2.7% YTD.

In the green: Alrasheed (+9.9%), Mulkia (+9.4%), and Tharwah (+8.5%).

In the red: Alctec (-7.7%), Riyal (-7.3%), and Sign World (-6.7%).

CALENDAR

APRIL

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Sports Investment Forum (SIF), Riyadh.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Future Aviation Forum, Riyadh.

MAY

3-9 May (Sunday-Sunday): The Global Sustainability Expo, The Arena Riyadh Venue.

19-21 May (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

24-28 May (Sunday-Thursday): Eid Al Adha holiday.

JUNE

15-17 June (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

22-24 June (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

JULY

6 July-23 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

AUGUST

31 August-3 Sep (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.

SEPTEMBER

9-10 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

9-10 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

12-15 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

NOVEMBER

24-28 November (Tuesday-Saturday): Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun, Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production;
September: Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center;
November: The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia;
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh;
The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah;
SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh;
The Intervision international music competition will take place in Saudi Arabia.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh;
The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
Capital Markets Forum takes place in March in Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

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Today at a glance

US-Iran negotiations, Pakistani jets, and more