Getting oil moving again through Hormuz is one thing, but getting the Gulf energy system back on track is another. A fragile two-week pause in the fighting between the US and Iran has opened the door to transit in the strait, although there is no assurance this truce will hold. The energy system behind that chokepoint remains battered, with recent strikes hitting fields, refineries, and storage facilities across the region.

The divergence between crude and gas: The pace of recovery will look vastly different depending on the commodity. Crude oil infrastructure — including fields, pipelines, and export terminals — emerged with comparatively lighter damage. While some oil installations took hits, the destruction pales in comparison to what the region's gas sector absorbed, paving the way for a swifter rebound in crude output if the conflict does not escalate.

By contrast, Qatar's critical gas facilities, particularly the LNG and GTL hubs at Ras Laffan, sustained severe damage from Iranian strikes. QatarEnergy anticipates that bringing operations back to pre-attack levels could take anywhere from two to five years. Roughly 17% of the nation's total LNG capacity could sit idle for up to half a decade, according to the company's chief executive.

A sea-turned-storage could be a relief: In the immediate term, floating storage offers a buffer. There are some 130 mn barrels of crude, 46 mn barrels of refined fuels, and 1.3 mn tons of LNG sitting idle on tankers across the Gulf. These volumes can move quickly once routes reopen.

Not that quick though: “It would likely take more than two weeks to clear the backlog even under normal conditions, [which is] too short to restore the level of confidence needed to fully unwind the embedded uncertainty premium — particularly for Arabian Gulf loading routes,” Daejin Lee, global head of research at Fertmax FZCO, told Reuters.

The pricing picture will split: This bifurcated recovery is going to pull prices in opposite directions. Physical crude prices loading out of the Gulf should cool off relatively fast once safe maritime passage through Hormuz is assured. Gas markets, however, are bracing for a prolonged era of high prices, particularly for benchmarks like Platts JKM, driven by the structural outages in Qatar.

Meanwhile, refined products like diesel and jet fuel — where Middle Eastern refiners are critical lifelines for European and Asian markets — will see a delayed price correction. Refining and storage assets were targeted during the conflict, though long-term structural outages in this specific sub-sector seem unlikely right now. Still, pricing relief here will lag behind crude and depend entirely on the true extent of the downstream damage.

Confidence is the real bottleneck: Clearing the backlog of cargoes is only half the equation — and moving ships out is easier than convincing them to come back in. Hundreds of vessels and shipowners are preparing to move, but transit protocols and key terms are still unclear. Charterers remain cautious, with Maersk noting that “the ceasefire may create transit opportunities, but it does not yet provide full maritime certainty.” Without confidence that tankers will be there to lift cargo, producers won’t rush to restart.

Give it time

Wells don’t like being turned off: Idled wells lose pressure balance, take on water, and face corrosion risks — especially with hydrogen sulfide exposure. In Saudi and Iraq, where enhanced recovery techniques like gas and water injection are standard, restarting means recalibrating entire reservoir systems under stable conditions.

Refining will be the quiet bottleneck: The Samref Saudi refinery on the Red Sea coast has been running below capacity after a drone strike last month, with estimates pointing to up to a year for full restoration. Supply chains are similarly strained. The specialized equipment needed to repair Gulf infrastructure is in high demand, and companies have evacuated staff from the region, stretching timelines until the workforce returns.

The overarching risk: All of these recovery timelines are entirely dependent on the situation today holding steady. “Kinetic action can easily resume if there is discord on any of the 10-point plan proposed by Iran,” Harry Tchilinguirian, Head of Research at Onyx Capital Group, tells us. If the conflict reignites — particularly if the US or Israel target Iranian power plants — Tchilinguirian warns the next wave of attacks will likely be far more aggressive, with Iran directly striking its neighbors' energy infrastructure.

What’s next: Watch tanker traffic through Hormuz for confidence, and refinery utilization rates for real supply recovery. Even in the best-case scenario, this is a staggered, months-long return to normalization, carrying a potential USD 25 bn repair bill.

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