Humain gets a piece of Elon Musk’s xAI in USD 3 bn gambit

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Happy (early) Founding Day

Good morning, ladies and gents, and happy THURSDAY. We hope your first Iftar was joyous and warm, and that the usual endearing chaos of large family gatherings was (somewhat) tolerable.

Our big story today: Humain invested USD 3 bn in Elon Musk’s AI company xAI, cementing its partnership with the world’s richest man and securing a minority stake just before the company merged with his other venture SpaceX.

ALSO- Maersk’s APM snapped up a stake in Jeddah terminal, and Actis’ Sherif El Kholy turns the attention to battery energy storage and grid infrastructure investments as necessary for data center buildout.

**PROGRAMMING NOTE- EnterpriseAM Saudi will be off on Sunday to celebrate Founding Day. We wish you a happy long weekend, and we will be back in your inboxes first thing Monday morning.

Watch this space

Riyadh appears to be closing the loophole that allowed consultants and executives to service Saudi clients without relocating. Saudi authorities have reportedly stepped up scrutiny of business visa applications, increasingly rejecting filings from UAE-based professionals whose travel patterns suggest they are working in the Kingdom rather than visiting, AGBI reports.

The crackdown targets the “commuter model”: Authorities are now flagging “travel frequency, length of stay and the nature of activities undertaken, particularly where patterns resemble full-time employment,” Abdulrahman Alfahad, a client relationship manager at Sovereign PPG Corporate Services, told the outlet.

It’s a volume issue: The shift follows what Abeer Husseini, a partner at immigration law firm Fragomen, calls “scaled misuse” of visas that were never intended for revenue-generating work.

Why it matters: If the trend is true, this removes the friction-free option to service the Kingdom remotely, forcing firms to either relocate reluctant staff (which is expensive), hire locally (which is challenging), or risk having their consultants turned away at the border.

DEFENSE — Lockheed Martin is targeting full operations at its Saudi software facility by the fourth quarter of the year, Chief Executive and Vice President for Saudi Arabia and Africa Joseph Rank told Asharq Business (watch, runtime: 2:16) on the sidelines of the World Defense Show. The site is currently in trial phase and hasn’t yet reached full capacity, he said.

The plant’s role will extend beyond Lockheed Martin’s own needs, with the capacity to provide software services to other commercial entities in the Kingdom and support local suppliers, he added.

IN CONTEXT- Lockheed’s second technical play is on the way, with the company partnering with Pioneers Technical Systems to establish the Kingdom’s first PAC-3 ground depot, which will test, repair, and certify launcher components for the Royal Saudi Air Defense Forces’ Patriot missile defense system.

Data point

SAR 15.3 bn — that’s the total value of consumer spending via point-of-sale (PoS) in the Kingdom in the week ending 14 February, down 4.8% w-o-w, according to the Saudi Central Bank’s latest weekly report (pdf). The number of transactions also saw a slight cooling, falling 1.6% w-o-w to 252.1 mn. The dip follows an increase in the previous weeks as household spending patterns begin to normalize ahead of the start of Ramadan.

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The big story abroad

Don’t hold your breath waiting for the Fed to continue its easing policy. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting showed that policymakers anticipated “slower and more uneven than generally expected” progress toward its inflation target of 2%. That said, Fed members indicated that keeping rates steady would “likely be appropriate […] for some time as the committee carefully assesses incoming data.”

The greenback was slightly elevated by the news in early trading, maintaining earlier gains against the JPY and the EUR.

ALSO- Social media giant Meta is in hot water after its CEO Mark Zuckerberg testified in court that the company no longer seeks to maximize the time spent by users on its platforms and bars kids under 13 from logging on. The CEO’s claims ran counter to internal emails and documents indicating otherwise.

Humain joins the Musk universe with USD 3 bn late-stage gambit

PIF’s Humain became a “significant” minority shareholder in xAI after investing USD 3 bn into the firm’s Series E round, according to a statement (pdf). The investment — part of a larger USD 20 bn capital raise — closed just before xAI was folded into SpaceX in early February.

A slice of a USD 1.25 tn pie: Humain’s holdings converted into a 0.24% equity stake in the combined USD 1.25 tn SpaceX-xAI entity following the merger, according to Bloomberg estimates.

Why it matters

Beyond a check, into the stack: Humain is shifting to a direct equity holder across the full Elon Musk stack of SpaceX, xAI, and Starlink. The move deepens its alignment with next-generation AI infrastructure and suggests the earlier 500 MW compute and Grok deployment plans in Saudi Arabia were an entry point rather than the end state.

IN CONTEXT- The move — following a November partnership with xAI to develop a data center network and deploy Grok models in the Kingdom — also deepens Musk’s ties with Saudi Arabia, giving xAI a major customer as it builds commercial reach for Grok (still trailing OpenAI’s ChatGPT) beyond contracts with SpaceX, Tesla, the Pentagon, and international deployments including El Salvador.

Humain’s 90-day blitzkrieg: Humain has made numerous AI-related moves in recent months, getting the ball rolling on the PIF’s strategic pivot away from capital-intensive real estate mega-projects toward high-velocity technology. This includes a USD 1.2 bn financing framework in January to support up to 250 MW of data center capacity and the recent acquisition of a controlling stake in UK-based sports tech firm AI.IO.

What’s next?

Keep an eye on the planned June 2026 IPO of the merged SpaceX-xAI entity AI. As a significant minority shareholder, Humain is positioned for a massive valuation lift-off if the listing meets the targeted “planetary alignment” debut on June 28.

Maersk takes 37.5% of Jeddah terminal

Maersk’s APM takes 37.5% at Jeddah terminal: Danish shipping heavyweight Maersk — through its terminal arm APM Terminals — agreed to acquire a 37.5% minority stake in the South Container Terminal at Jeddah Islamic Port. UAE ports giant DP World will retain its 62.5% majority stake.

Why this matters

Trading control for security: Maersk can now offer more reliable turnaround times for its own vessels — a critical advantage as Jeddah competes with other regional hubs for transshipment volumes. For DP World, the move cements SCT against regional competition. By bringing Maersk –– one of the world’s most aggressive end-to-end logistics players –– into the fold, they lock in Maersk’s massive volumes for the long term, preventing a potential pivot to competitor facilities like the Red Sea Gateway Terminal.

Watch out for

The multimodal links: We could expect increased synergy between this terminal stake and Maersk’s recently opened 225k sqm logistics park in Jeddah. The goal is a closed-loop logistics system where Maersk controls the ship, the berth, the warehouse, and the truck.

The case for Jeddah: Major logistics leaders are making a play for Jeddah — with Medlog — the cargo subsidiary of Mediterranean Shipping Company inking a SAR 137 mn investment agreement to build an integrated logistics zone within Jeddah’s Third Industrial City earlier this week.

Background

DP World’s footprints are already at STC: DP World secured a 30-year build-operate-transfer (BOT) concession for the terminal from Mawani back in 2019. Under the initial agreement, the logistics heavyweight earmarked a USD 500 mn investment figure to improve and revamp the port, including expanding its infrastructure to better handle ultra-large container carriers.

Battery energy storage, grid infrastructure investments are needed to support the massive data center and energy buildout that’s coming -Actis’ Sherif El Kholy

Sustainable infrastructure investor Actis has been eyeing the region’s data center infrastructure for a while now, but other supportive subsectors are equally as important and require additional investments, Head of the Middle East and Africa Sherif Elkholy tells us. This includes district cooling — in which the firm has already invested via its stake in Emicool — and power infrastructure, such as grids and battery energy storage systems.

We sat down with Elkholy to gauge his outlook on the data center sector in the region, where he sees pockets of potential, and what supportive infrastructure and energy will be needed to support the massive buildout currently taking place in the region, particularly in the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

EnterpriseAM: What specific sectors are you currently eyeing?

Sherif El Kholy: We’re looking at power generation, distribution, and transmission, alongside district cooling and digital infrastructure, particularly data centers. We’re also very interested in and looking at investment prospects in battery energy storage system projects, because demand for baseload energy will be key moving forward, as renewable energy is intermittent and cannot alone keep up with soaring demand for power.

E: Which markets are you eyeing?

SK: Saudi Arabia and the UAE both have a very promising road ahead of them in data centers and digital infrastructure. Both are pursuing development at very high speeds, and they are saying and doing all the right things to attract international capital. Demand for cloud and AI capacity in both countries also continues to be very robust.

There’s a very healthy competition that is happening between the two markets. The good news is that the organic window for demand is big enough to accommodate the ambitions of both markets. If you look at the projections of what’s going to happen over the coming five years, that supply-demand imbalance is expected to stay in the medium term.

E: What do you think makes the UAE and Saudi Arabia frontrunners in terms of attracting capital for data center infrastructure in the region?

SK: There are three key patterns or secular drivers underpinning that infrastructure investment window that we see in the UAE and across the whole region. The first one is migration patterns — rural-to-urban migration more broadly, but in the UAE context, this translates primarily to more international migration into the country.

The second is what I would describe as the democratization of infrastructure access, which is the propagation of infrastructure and quality infrastructure services from capital cities to tier-two and tier-three cities that have smaller catchment areas.

The third is purely the focus on digital, which has been made more important since the pandemic exposed gaps in digital infrastructure and in access to stable, high-quality fiber-based internet.

Qatar is also saying all the right things and has just made a big pledge toward data centers, so that’s another market that I think is going to try to get a fair share of the activity. Egypt also has a lot of very interesting plans on that front.

E: Do you see grid infrastructure becoming a challenge as data center infrastructure scales and power demand increases?

SK: As the saying goes, there’s no transition without transmission. Making sure that transmission and grids keep pace with expanding capacity — particularly from renewables — is a global challenge, especially since renewable energy sources inherently put some pressure on grids due to their intermittency.

The health of the grids in the Gulf, particularly in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, is quite strong. However, there will need to be continuous upkeep and reinvestment to make sure they are able to cope with the increased load. Saudi Arabia, for example, today has around 9 GW of renewables that are online and plans to scale that to 100 GW by 2030 — less than four years away. That will require a huge amount of development and investment into the grid.

I would very much like to see some of these transmission and grid investments opened to the private sector in the next phase via an availability-based concession model. So far, most of this capital — if not all — has been coming from public-sector funds. And I think there’s a great potential there to unlock a lot of private capital for this space.

E: Are there any other sectors that you think offer significant upside in the region, provided they are opened to private capital?

SK: Roads are an equally important component of the physical infrastructure landscape in the region that I would like to see opened to private capital, as they could be quite attractive. Toll roads are a major investment prospect across many global growth markets. For Actis in India, they have been such an interesting investment, and we see similar prospects in Latin America and Africa. But so far, I think this is a window that has not yet opened up sufficiently in the Middle East.

Care, Leejam Sports, and Gasco post 2025 results

Gasco

National Gas and Industrialization Company (Gasco) saw its net income inch up 0.2% y-o-y to SAR 249.1 mn in 2025, it said in a Tadawul disclosure. Revenue grew 13.9% y-o-y to SAR 3.3 bn during the year, driven by a SAR 396 mn increase in gas sales due to higher prices and volumes, as well as stronger sales of empty cylinders and scrap sales.

Care

Our friends at National Medical Care Company logged a net income of SAR 318.5 mn in 2025, up 8.1% y-o-y, according to a Tadawul disclosure. Revenue jumped 23.7% y-o-y to SAR 1.6 bn over the year, driven by a 33% rise in patient volume and higher revenues across all facilities, buoyed by the contribution from Al Salam Hospital and the ReLib platform.

Dividends: The company’s board recommended distributing SAR 134.1 mn in dividends for 2025 at SAR 3 apiece, according to a separate bourse filing.

Leejam Sports

Leejam Sports posted a 33.3% y-o-y decline in net income to SAR 305 mn in 2025, mainly due to a high comparison base from 3Q 2024, which included a one-off SAR 92 mn land sale. Revenue rose 7.5% y-o-y to SAR 1.6 bn over the year, thanks to 7% growth in subscriptions, memberships, and personal training earnings, along with a 36% y-o-y increase in rental revenue and a 6% increase in personal training service revenues.

During 4Q 2025, Leejam Sports’ net income fell 22.5% y-o-y to SAR 79 mn, while its revenue increased 2.6% to SAR 431 mn.

Dividends: The company will distribute SAR 47.6 mn in dividends for 4Q 2025 at SAR 0.93 per share, starting Tuesday, 10 March.

Tilal Towers launched, Raya wraps sukuk offering

Tilal Towers live-

Sulaiman Alrajhi Holding Company launched the Tilal Towers endowment project with an investment of SAR 2 bn, Chairman Ihasn Bafakih told Aleqtisdiah. The project comprises over 2.5k hotel and residential keys across four international hotels near the Aisha Al Rajhi Mosque in Makkah over a 135k sqm area.

The project is expected to accommodate about 950k pilgrims annually, with an estimated revenue of around SAR 210 mn per year, CEO and Managing Director Moath Al Makhdob said.

Raya bags SAR 300 mn from sukuk offering

Raya Financing Company secured SAR 300 mn (USD 80 mn) through AT1 sukuk listed on Tadawul under its SAR 500 mn program, according to Zawya. The issuance is callable after five years, with a quarterly 8.5% coupon. Raya tapped Impact46 as the financial advisor and sole arranger for the offering.

SHL Finance renews SAR 200 mn facility with Emirates NBD

Riyadh-based SHL Finance renewed a SAR 200 mn shariah-compliant facility with Emirates NBD, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The five-year facility will contribute to boosting the company’s top line by backing new loans to customers.

AI startup Deep.SA sees funding commitment from Vision Ventures

Homegrown AI startup Deep.SA brought in VC player Vision Ventures to its pre-seed funding round, which raised SAR 4.5 mn in August, according to a statement. This investment will help the startup scale the development of Saudi AI infrastructure and models, fueling the growth of bespoke AI solutions for the public and private sectors.

Maybe the crowd is the smartest economist after all

Prediction markets are booming, evolving rapidly from novelty wagering sites into a serious financial infrastructure that is statistically embarrassing Wall Street, The New York Times reports. Trading volume on prediction platforms surpassed USD 26.2 bn in January, with platform Kalshi alone recording nearly USD 10 bn. While sports wagering drives much of this liquidity, a significant portion — over USD 60 mn on any given day — is now staked on serious economic and political questions, offering a real-time “truth” that professional forecasters are finding impossible to ignore.

This surge has revealed a startling trend: the crowd is often just as smart, if not smarter, than the highly paid professionals. A recent working paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that over a five-year period, traders on Kalshi were as statistically accurate as professional economists in predicting economic indicators — and even more precise at forecasting inflation. Another study by researchers from the London Business School and Yale found that bettors on Polymarket forecast corporate earnings more accurately than the analysts paid to advise investors.

The reason is simple: incentives. Professional analysts often face structural conflicts, researchers argue. They may hesitate to publish an outlier forecast for fear of embarrassment or be influenced by their firm’s need to drive trading commissions. However, anonymous traders face no such social pressure. “The nice thing about prediction markets is that you have to put your money where your mouth is,” said Theis Jensen, a Yale professor who studied the phenomenon.

The rapid commoditization of real-world events has triggered a fierce legislative war that threatens to strangle the industry, The Guardian reports. Because platforms like Kalshi classify their products as “event derivatives,” they operate under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), bypassing US state wagering laws.

This distinction has enraged US state regulators. At least 20 federal lawsuits have been filed against major platforms, with state attorneys general arguing they are operating illegal sportsbooks disguised as financial exchanges. Despite the backlash, CFTC Chair Michael Selig said the agency had filed court briefs defending its “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets and vowed not to allow state governments to undermine federal authority.

As US courts decide whether these platforms are the future of finance or merely unregulated casinos, the economic implications are profound. Some economists, like Justin Wolfers at the University of Michigan, suggest that institutions like the Federal Reserve should formally incorporate this data. Yet, he notes a deep institutional resistance. “There’s a deep problem, which is, if you were to do this, you democratize decision making,” Wolfers said, adding that “right now the senior economist has a ton of power. Their view goes.”

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets are in the green in early trading this morning, mirroring gains seen on Wall Street as tech stocks rebound from earlier losses. With the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng still closed in observance of the Lunar New Year, South Korea’s Kospi is leading gains.

TASI	11,155	+0.5% (YTD: +6.3%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,503	+0.5% (YTD: +8.3%)
NomuC	23,623	+0.3% (YTD: +1.4%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	52,222	+0.8% (YTD: +24.9%)
ADX	10,755	+1.2% (YTD: +7.6%)
DFM	6,765	+1.2% (YTD: +11.9%)
S&P 500	6,881	+0.6% (YTD: +0.5%)
FTSE 100	10,686	+1.2% (YTD: +7.6%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,103	+1.4% (YTD: +5.4%)
Brent crude	USD 70.31	-0.1%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.07	+2.0%
Gold	USD 4,986	-0.5%
BTC	USD 66,701	-0.7% (YTD: -23.9%)
Sukuk/bond market index	922.09	-0.2% (YTD: +0.3%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	153.59	+0.1% (YTD: +1.1%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	19.31	-4.8% (YTD: +34.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 0.5% yesterday on turnover of SAR 3.8 bn. The index is up 6.3% YTD.

In the green: Enaya (+8.6%), Bupa Arabia (+8.0%) and Retal (+6.0%).

In the red: Care (-10.0%), Yansab (-4.9%) and MBC Group (-4.1%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 0.3% yesterday on turnover of SAR 12.0 mn. The index is up 1.4% YTD.

In the green: AME (+8.4%), WSM (+6.1%) and Alhasoob (+5.4%).

In the red: Mulkia (-9.6%), SPC (-9.1%) and Mayar (-9.0%).

CALENDAR

FEBRUARY

22 February (Sunday): Founding Day.

26 February (Thursday): Title deed registration deadline for 142.8k properties across 104 neighborhoods in Hail.

MARCH

12 March (Thursday): Deadline for real estate registration for 253.2k properties in 499 neighborhoods across Riyadh, Qassim, Makkah, and Hail.

18-23 March (Tuesday-Monday): Eid Al Fitr holiday (TBC).

21 March (Saturday): Fanatics Flag Football Classic, Kingdom Arena, Riyadh.

25-27 March (Wednesday-Friday): Future Investment Initiative Institute, Faena Hotel, Miami Beach.

31 March (Tuesday): Zatca’s 23rd E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

APRIL

6 April (Monday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

6-7 April (Monday-Tuesday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

13-16 April (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center – Malham.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Sports Investment Forum (SIF), Riyadh

22-23 April (Wednesday-Thursday): The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah.

27-29 April (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

28 April (Tuesday): GC Summit Saudi Arabia, Riyadh.

MAY

3-9 May (Sunday-Sunday): The Global Sustainability Expo, The Arena Riyadh Venue.

5-6 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh.

24-28 May (Sunday-Thursday): Eid al-Adha holiday.

JUNE

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

12-15 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

NOVEMBER

24-28 November (Tuesday-Saturday): Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun, Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production;
November: The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia;
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh;
The Intervision international music competition will take place in Saudi Arabia;
6 July-23 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh;
The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

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