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Expat levy scrapped for licensed industrial firms

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

CloudKitchens shelves plans for dual KSA, UAE listing + I Squared Capital pins regional bets on Saudi Arabia

Good morning, everyone, and happy THURSDAY. Licensed manufacturers can breathe a sigh of relief this morning after the cabinet decided to do away with the expat levy on licensed industrial firms. The fast-approaching deadline for the end of the waiver at 31 December is no longer hanging over balance sheets, with the hopes that this will spur more spending on growth and advanced tech.

ALSO- Gaca seems happy with the so-called “Madinah Model” for airport privatization, and wants to bring the success into Abha. A winner of the Abha Airport concession — set to be announced in three months — will finance and build the infrastructure to take the airport’s capacity from 1.5 mn to 13 mn passengers over three phases.

AND- Midad Energy is reportedly representing Saudi in the race for grabbing international assets of Russia’s sanctioned oil titan Lukoil. Let’s dive in.


⚠️PSA- Schools in Riyadh, the Eastern Province, Qassim, and Al Baha have shifted all students and staff to the Madrasati platform through Thursday following red alerts for severe thunderstorms and flash floods. Stay safe, wonderful people.

Watch This Space-

IPO: US ghost kitchen operator CloudKitchens is reportedly revisiting plans for a Middle East IPO in 2026, shelving a potential dual-listing in Abu Dhabi and Riyadh as the region’s IPO bubble deflates, while keeping the door open for a future listing, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. The PIF-backed company is now weighing options such as a private placement, the people said, without specifying a timeline or venue.

Background: The firm, headed by Uber’s co-founder and former CEO Travis Kalanick — who was recently granted Saudi citizenship — runs KitchenPark facilities across the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait, and was eyeing a USD 2 bn valuation. First Abu Dhabi Bank, JP Morgan, SNB Capital, and Goldman Sachs were reportedly quarterbacking the potential IPO which was first announced in May.

2025 has been an uncharacteristically lackluster year for Gulf IPOs, with proceeds down to USD 6 bn from USD 13 bn last year. Investor caution drove players like Dubizzle to delay their IPOs particularly after big names logged underwhelming debuts. Investor caution has sidelined several listings, including five Nomu hopefuls as well as main market contender EFSIM.

^^ WATCHING THIS- Alramz Real Estate is landing on TASI in a few hours.


INVESTMENT: I Squared Capital pins regional bets on Saudi Arabia: Miami-based infrastructure investor I Squared Capital is doubling down on the Kingdom as the US-based investment manager is moving to sign infrastructure contracts worth up to USD 300 mn this January, chairman Sadiq Wahba told AlArabiya.

The deals — covering renewables, data centers, and fiber optics — are part of a larger USD 500 mn the firm has earmarked for the Kingdom (half of its USD 1 bn regional target). A long-promised new Riyadh office and a dedicated infrastructure fund which already counts the PIF and Arab Energy Fund as MoU partners will help out the execution.

Saudi is the region’s “most attractive” market, Wahba says adding that its population, investment program, consumer demand, and strong returns with (calculated risks) place it ahead of opportunities in the Gulf and North Africa, he said.


SPORTS: Aramco-owned Al Qadsiah handed the head coach reins to Brendan Rodgers. The former Liverpool and Celtic manager replaces Michel Gonzalez, who was let go earlier this week after an underwhelming season that has left one of the league’s biggest spenders in fifth place. (They were also knocked out of the King’s Cup quarter-finals by Al Ahli on penalties. Tough times.)

Data Point: Investment licenses are booming

83.4% — the y-o-y increase in new investment licenses issued in the Kingdom in 3Q 2025, hitting a record 7k, according to an Investment Ministry report (pdf). This marks a twentyfold increase compared to the same period in 2020.

The context: The increase is driven by the Kingdom’s delivery era, with construction leading all sectors by accounting for 37% (2.6k) of all new licenses as gigaprojects like Neom and the Red Sea move into high gear. Wholesale and retail trade saw the fastest growth at 234% y-o-y.

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***

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Oil traders are watching carefully this morning after Venezuela said it would have its navy escort oil tankers from port in response to US President Donald Trump’s naval blockade of the country’s oil industry.

^^ The must read: Oil rises as Trump’s Venezuela blockade takes edge off global crudesurplus concerns (Reuters).

ALSO- Warner Bros Discovery’s board rebuked Paramount Skydance’s “inferior” GCC-backed offer and urged shareholders to accept Netflix’s bid. Netflix is offering less, but some pundits think the offer stands a better chance of passing regulatory muster as it would see WBD first spin off its cable TV assets, including CNN and Discovery.

AND- BP’s Murray Auchincloss is out as CEO after less than two years. He’s being replaced by Meg O’Neill, who’s coming in from Australia’s Woodside Energy. She’ll be BP’s third CEO in five years.

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2

THE BIG STORY TODAY

Expat levy scrapped for licensed industrial firms

Manufacturers are breathing a sigh of relief after the cabinet scrapped expat levies on licensed industrial facilities permanently.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

BACKGROUND- The levy went into effect in 2018 to be used as a triple-threat tool in the fiscal balancing stack. The pitch was that it would generate an urgent non-oil revenue stream to plug the widening budget deficit, promote Saudization by increasing the cost of hiring cheaper expat workers, and serve as an “inefficiency tax” that pushes facilities to adopt automation and advanced tech.

The levy didn’t last long for the industrial sector anyway: The government decided to waive the fees for licensed manufacturers for five years in late 2019, saving thousands of facilities an estimated average of SAR 1 bn annually as of last year.

The reason? Taxing manufacturers can harm industrialization targets. Industry Minister Bandar Alkhorayef says the waiver — which the government kept extending in short bursts every time the deadline drew near — allowed the number of facilities to jump from some 8.8k to over 12k in the last six years, and industrial investments to grow north of SAR 1.2 tn.

Why it matters

Manufacturing in Saudi relies heavily on skilled foreign labor, not easily replaceable with local talent as in other sectors such as retail or construction. The looming expiry of the waiver on 31 December 2025 was hanging over manufacturers’ heads because most facilities employ more expats than Saudis, putting these facilities in a tier that pays even higher rates than Saudi-dominated facilities under the defunct regime.

📊 A single expat factory worker would have cost a facility SAR 800 mn per month if the fees had been reinstituted. That’s some SAR 7.8k every single year.

Getting rid of the levy for good should lower projected operating costs, allowing factories to worry less about potential labor costs and spend more freely on expansion, automation, and advanced tech, Alkhorayef said.

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PRIVATIZATION

The “Madinah Model” for airport privatization works — and Abha is the next stop

We’re done experimenting — time for getting on with the plans for privatizing the Kingdom’s airports. The General Authority of Civil Aviation (Gaca) is pushing forward with a national privatization program modeled after the success at Prince Mohammed bin Abdulaziz International Airport in Madinah.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

The Abha International Airport concession will be awarded within three month, Gaca President Abdulaziz Al Duailej confirmed on Tuesday. The winner will finance and build the infrastructure to take the airport’s capacity from 1.5 mn to 13 mn passengers over three phases.

  • Some 100 companies are eyeing the 30-year build-transfer-operate (BTO) concession, Al Duailej said.

Abha is only the beginning: Taif, Qassim, and Hail airports are next in line.

The blueprint

The Tibah Consortium (Al Rajhi Holding + Turkey’s TAV Airports) provided the proof of concept that privately run local airports are good for business. Capacity at Prince Mohammed bin Abdulaziz International Airport has tripled since Tibah took over operations in 2012, rising from under 3 mn to 9.4 mn passengers in 2023. Expansion followed, with Tibah pledging USD 275 mn in March last year to raise capacity to 18 mn. It also extended its 25-year concession to 2041.

What’s in it for Gaca? Tibah pays the regulator 54.5% of gross revenues — amounting to an estimated USD 7 bn during the concession.

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SPEED ROUND

Midad in the run for sanctioned Russian oil assets?

Is Midad reaching for Russia’s forbidden fruit? Midad Energy is reportedly joining the race to buy recently US-sanctioned Lukoil’s USD 22 bn international assets , with proceeds to be parked in escrow until sanctions are lifted, three unnamed sources told Reuters. The structure could include US companies, threading a narrow compliance needle around the sanctions regime, one source told the newswire.

Contenders: The reported all-cash bid is going against competition from Carlyle, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Abu Dhabi’s IHC, and Adnoc. Previous runners — rejected by the US Treasury — include Swiss energy trader Gunvor and a group led by US bank Xtellus Partners, which sought to acquire the foreign assets via a cashless swap of sanctioned securities held by US investors.

Lukoil has until 17 January to sell the assets, under the latest deadline set by the US Treasury.

Why this matters-

It’s a big haul: The mandated divestment spans assets in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, setting up a potential reshuffle of refinery ownership and upstream positions as Russia is forced out of key markets.

Midad’s edge? Access on both sides of the sanction wall

The US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control approval decides who can close. CEO Abdulelah Al Aiban is the brother of national security adviser Musaed Al Aiban, who joined US-Russia peace talks hosted back in February in Riyadh.

5

MOVES

It’s a good year for John Pagano

John Pagano now oversees an unprecedented portfolio of the Kingdom’s highest-value assets, with his newly announced mandate as managing director of AlUla Development Company joining his existing roles as CEO of Red Sea Global (spanning the Kingdom’s Red Sea and Amalaa projects) and managing director of the King Abdullah Financial District.

It has been a good year for Pagano, who said in October he’ll be joining the board of Neom, days after receiving Saudi citizenship earlier in the same month.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

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ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Elsewedy’s GCC push + Alsirah Gardens underway

!_ImageURLWeb_! https://ent.news/2025/12/921.jpg

Elsewedy’s USD 500 mn GCC push-

Egypt’s Elsewedy Electric plans to establish nine facilities in Saudi Arabia and two in Qatar, CEO Ahmed El Sewedy told Asharq Business. The expansion aims to diversify export hubs and strengthen regional competitiveness, investor relations head Noha Agaiby told EnterpriseAM.

The details: The company is earmarking SAR 1.5 bn (USD 400 mn) for the Saudi facilities. They include two plants in Yanbu, one of which will produce specialized cables and another for copper rods (a JV with Alfanar) with a capacity exceeding 130k tons. Riyadh will see plants for cable accessories, fiberglass, EV chargers, and water meters, while a new Dammam facility will produce power transformers.

In Qatar, the company plans to invest QAR 250 mn (USD 67 mn) in plants for copper and aluminum rods and power distribution transformers, with production set to begin in 2027.

Construction is underway on 10 mn-visitor Madinah cultural hub-

PIF-owned Qsas broke ground on its flagship experiential destination Alsirah Gardens in Madinah, where immersive exhibits on the prophetic biography are expected to attract 10 mn annual visitors, according to a statement.

Why it matters: Alsirah Gardens is part of the Kingdom’s play to tap into the pilgrim downtime market as the Kingdom builds up attractions for pilgrims to extend their stay after completing their rituals. The destination joins the Alsirah platform roster, which includes the Journey to Quba and Bustan Al Mustadal, as well as other cultural projects in the holy cities, such as the Makkah Clock Tower Museum and the Hira Cultural District.

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PLANET FINANCE

Wonder why markets are edgy about the “circular nature” of AI investing? We’ve got the rundown.

The global financial press wants the AI bubble to pop so hard you can practically feel it in the air this morning after jitters rattled Wall Street on Wednesday.

What happened? Oracle’s stock tumbled more than 5% yesterday after Blue Owl Capital — its primary data center financing partner — pulled out of a USD 10 bn project, triggering a broader tech selloff that sent the Nasdaq down 1.8% to a three-week low. The Dow and S&P followed suit.

What’s really spooking traders: It’s not one deal, but the structure of the entire AI buildout. Investors are growing uneasy about what’s become common to call the “circular nature” of AI spending. (A bit confused about what this “circular nature” thing is? More on that below.)

That’s brought the dotcom question back on the op-ed pages and on business TV. By nearly every valuation metric, US equities are at their most expensive since 2000. The WSJ’s James Mackintosh goes deep into the structural parallels: heavy infrastructure spending financed by debt (fiber optic cables then, data centers now), a single-minded market focus on one theme, and “picks and shovels” suppliers being the ones who really rake-in the profits (Cisco then, Nvidia now).

That backdrop has traders spooked about today’s US consumer price data. The figure for November is due out this morning (US East coast time). Economists expect headline inflation at 3.1% year-on-year — a cooler print could calm nerves, and a hotter one could accelerate the selloff.

Enterprise Explains

Confused about the “circular nature” of AI investment? We’ve got the rundown for you, because it’s going to be in the headlines more and more heading into 2026. It’s a lot, but it’s not rocket science — just follow the money:

It starts with the data centers Big Tech is building. Oracle, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are collectively committing hundreds of bns to AI infrastructure. Oracle alone has USD 248 bn in data center lease commitments — up nearly 150% in just three months.

Those data centers are serving AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, who need massive “compute” to train and run their models. The Oracle project that Blue Owl pulled out of? It’s being built for OpenAI.

But Big Tech is also funding the AI companies… Microsoft has poured bns into OpenAI, and Amazon (as of yesterday) looks like it’s following suit. Google and Amazon are investors in Anthropic. Oracle and SoftBank are partners in OpenAI’s massive USD 500 bn (yes, half-a-tn) Stargate infrastructure project. (That’s *far* from an exhaustive list…)

And the AI companies are losing money hand-over-fist. Generative AI is, as the WSJ put it, is “priced well below what it costs to produce.” OpenAI, Anthropic, and others are burning cash, subsidizing usage to build market share. Google and Microsoft are the only players using their own cash to grow.

That’s the circle: Tech giants invest in AI startups. The AI startups pay tech giants for cloud compute. Tech giants book revenue and justify more infrastructure spending. The spending is financed by debt — and the debt is repaid by lease income from … the very same AI startups that are burning investor cash.

The worry: What if someone breaks the circle? If investors stop writing tickets because, say, corporate buyers slow their AI rollouts on the back of slow-to-materialize returns on expensive AI pilot projects? Then it all grinds to a stop: The data centers are still there. AI companies, Big Tech, and others building for them are still saddled with the debt they took on to build-out data centers. And the tenants can’t pay.

JP Morgan is (gently) urging caution, Bloomberg has a data-packed rundown if you want more, and pieces by both The Atlantic and the New York Times highlighting a once-obscure company named CoreWeave are must-reads.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets tracked Wall Street losses amid the AI-fueled sell-off, with Japan’s Nikkei leading losses, and South Korea’s Kospi following closely behind. Over on Wall Street, futures are hovering near the flatline as investors await inflation data out later today.

TASI

10,414

-0.4% (YTD: -13.5%)

MSCI Tadawul 30

1,368

-0.5% (YTD: -9.3%)

NomuC

23,429

-0.2% (YTD: -25.6%)

USD : SAR (SAMA)

USD 3.75 Sell

USD 3.75 Buy

Interest rates

4.25% repo

3.75% reverse repo

EGX30

41,504

-1.2% (YTD: +39.6%)

ADX

9,953

-0.3% (YTD: +5.7%)

DFM

6,109

0.0% (YTD: +18.4%)

S&P 500

6,721

-1.2% (YTD: +14.3%)

FTSE 100

9,774

+0.9% (YTD: +19.6%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,681

-0.6% (YTD: +16.1%)

Brent crude

USD 60.61

+1.6%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 4.12

+2.3%

Gold

USD 4,366

-0.2%

BTC

USD 86,672

-0.9% (YTD: -7.6%)

Sukuk/bond market index

919.57

+0.2% (YTD: +1.9%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

151.72

-0.0% (YTD: +8.4%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

17.62

+6.9% (YTD: +1.6%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 0.4% yesterday on turnover of SAR 3.5 bn. The index is down 13.5% YTD.

In the green: Arabian Drilling (+6.8%), Naqi (+4.3%) and SGS (+3.8%).

In the red: Taprco (-5.0%), Alahli Reit 1 (-3.5%) and Banan (-3.4%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC fell 0.2% yesterday on turnover of SAR 26.1 mn. The index is down 25.6% YTD.

In the green: Taqat (+15.3%), Alfakhera (+7.8%) and Amwaj International (+6.5%).

In the red: Shalfa (-8.7%), Naba Alsaha (-8.7%) and Altwijri (-6.1%).


NOVEMBER

30 November -11 December (Sunday-Thursday): The Absher Tuwaiq Hakathon (remote).

DECEMBER

19 December (Friday): The 2025 Saudi Toyota Championship wraps up.

25 December (Thursday): Title title deed registration deadline for 64.4k properties across neighborhoods in Madinah, Makkah, Riyadh, and the Eastern Province.

31 December (Wednesday): Zatca 22nd E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

31 December (Wednesday): Cancellation of Fines and Exemption of Financial Penalties Initiative by the Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority (Zatca) deadline.

December: Made in Saudi exhibition, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center, Riyadh

2026

JANUARY

1 January (Thursday): Title deed registration deadline for 54k properties in 77 neighborhoods across Riyadh, Makkah, and the Eastern Province.

1 January (Thursday): Electronic salary transfer via the Musaned platform becomes mandatory for all domestic workers in the Kingdom.

10-18 January (Saturday-Sunday): Public school mid-year break.

13-15 January (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Minerals Forum, King Abdul Aziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

15 January (Thursday): Title deed registration deadline for 31.7k properties in 14 neighborhoods in the Eastern Province.

15 January (Thursday): Title deed registration deadline for about 157.3k properties in 78 neighborhoods across the Eastern Province.

15 January (Thursday): Title deed registration deadline for about 41.7k properties across 115 neighborhoods in Riyadh, Qassim, and the Eastern Province.

18-21 January (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Hospital Design and Build Expo, Riyadh.

26-27 January (Monday-Tuesday): SuperReturn Saudi Arabia, Hotel Fairmont, Riyadh.

26-27 (Monday-Tuesday): GPRC Summit, Riyadh.

26-28 (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Franchise Expo (SFE), Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre, Riyadh.

26-28 (Monday-Wednesday): Real Estate Future Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh.

26-28 (Monday-Wednesday): IFAT Saudi Arabia, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center, Riyadh,

27-28 (Tuesday-Wednesday): SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh.

28 (Wednesday): Data Center Nation Riyadh, Riyadh.

28-30 (Wednesday-Friday): Jeddah International Travel and Tourism Exhibition (JTTX), Jeddah.

FEBRUARY

2-4 (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Media Forum, Riyadh.

2-4 (Monday-Wednesday): Women Leaders Summit and Awards KSA, Riyadh.

2-13 (Monday-Friday): 2026 Asian Road Cycling Championship and Paralympic Cycling, Qassim.

3-4 (Tuesday-Wednesday): RLC Global Forum Annual Meeting, Riyadh.

5-7 February (Thursday-Saturday): LIV Golf 2026 season opener, Riyadh Golf Club, Riyadh.

8-12 February (Sunday-Thursday): World Defense Show, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center, Riyadh.

9-10 February (Monday-Tuesday): Global Games Show Riyadh 2026, Malf Hall, Riyadh.

9-14 February (Monday-Saturday): Asian Racing Conference, Crowne Plaza Riyadh RDC Hotel & Convention Centre, Riyadh.

11 (Wednesday) Digital Transformation Summit Saudi Arabia (DTS), Riyadh.

11-14 (Wednesday-Saturday): JeddaDerm, Jeddah.

13-14 February (Friday-Saturday): Jeddah E-Prix 2026, Jeddah.

15-17 February (Sunday-Tuesday): The World Advanced Manufacturing & Logistics Saudi Expo, Riyadh Front & Exhibition Center.

16 February (Monday) King Salman Stadium design-and-build contract prequalification submission deadline.

22 February (Sunday): Founding Day.

26 February (Thursday): Title deed registration deadline for 142.8k properties across 104 neighborhoods in Hail.

MARCH

12 March (Thursday): Deadline for real estate registration for 253.2k properties in 499 neighborhoods across Riyadh, Qassim, Makkah, and Hail.

17-23 March (Tuesday-Monday): Eid Al-Fitr holiday.

21 March (Saturday): Fanatics Flag Football Classic, Kingdom Arena, Riyadh.

31 March (Tuesday): Zatca’s 23rd E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

APRIL

6 April (Monday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

6-7 April (Monday-Tuesday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

13-16 April (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center – Malham.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21 April (Tuesday): GC Summit Saudi Arabia 2026, Saudi Arabia.

27-29 April (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

MAY

3-5 May (Sunday-Tuesday): Sports Investment Forum (SIF), Riyadh.

3-9 May (Sunday-Sunday): The Global Sustainability Expo, The Arena Riyadh Venue.

24-28 (Sunday-Thursday): Eid al-Adha holiday.

JUNE

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

  • 2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production in 2026.
  • November: UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia.
  • November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh.
  • The Intervision international music competition will take place in Saudi Arabia.
  • 6 July-23 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

  • The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh.
  • The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea.
  • Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

  • The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.
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