The war is bound to leave a mark on the region’s tourism, but Saudi is walking into this storm with a sturdier umbrella than its neighbors, Capital Economics’ Harry Chambers wrote in an update (pdf). The Kingdom’s geography and visitor mix provide a built-in buffer against the shocks.

The “write-off” talk is premature: “The conflict does generate some risks for Saudi’s tourism targets, but I think saying the targets are a ‘write-off’ is probably too harsh,” Chambers tells EnterpriseAM. While typical regional crises see a 30-40% drop in visitor arrivals with a three-year recovery period, Saudi Arabia’s exposure is more hedged than its peers.

BUT- There is a collateral perception risk: Safety typically ranks above weather, transport links, and culture when choosing destinations for tourists, and even if Saudi Arabia is safer than some neighbors, global tourists often see the Middle East as a single risk zone. Travel advisories — like US and UK warnings that already include the non-directly involved Egypt — show how quickly regional risk perceptions can spread.

Silver linings

Religious tourism gives us steady ground: Pilgrimage accounts for around 40% of foreign visitors to Saudi Arabia and roughly 55% of tourism spending, making it less sensitive to geopolitical tensions than leisure travel. Visitors traveling for religious purposes are also typically less responsive to security concerns than traditional tourists.

Geography is in our favor: Unlike our neighbors in the immediate proximity of Iran, many of our primary tourist magnets like Riyadh, Makkah, and Jeddah lie far from the Gulf coast, potentially insulating them from direct regional security concerns.

Intra-GCC tourism flows could cushion the blow: Around 27% of tourism in the Gulf is intra-regional. If GCC residents opt to holiday closer to home rather than traveling abroad, it could soften the blow of falling international demand.

How the Kingdom can adapt

Keep the cranes moving: “One way [the government] could provide support is to not scale back the gigaprojects as they had planned to do before the conflict,” Chambers said. Maintaining construction would signal to investors and tourism operators that the Kingdom’s long-term plans remain intact despite regional tensions — though the strategy ultimately depends on continued oil exports and stronger oil prices.

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