Global M&A snapped back in 2025 — though unevenly. Transaction value jumped 36% and is on track to hit a total of USD 4.8 tn, which would make 2025 the second-strongest year on record for M&A, Bain & Company said in a new report. Volumes rose just 5%, making clear this was a rebound driven by transaction value, not a flood of activity.

Go big or don’t bother: Transactions above USD 5 bn accounted for more than 75% of incremental transaction value as infrequent, deep-pocketed buyers re-entered the market. Around 40% of these agreements were “transformative,” meaning they were worth more than half the buyer’s market cap.

Tech did the heavy lifting: Technology M&A surged more than 75% y-o-y, powered by AI-related agreements. Nearly half of strategic tech transaction value was tied to AI-native targets or capabilities, underscoring how acquirers are choosing to buy transformation rather than build it slowly.

Growth is back in fashion. Roughly 60% of large transactions in 2025 targeted revenue expansion or new capabilities — the highest share on record — reversing the cost-cutting, consolidation-heavy playbooks that dominated during the downturn.

Still, M&A lost the budget fight: Despite the rebound, companies allocated just 7% of total capital spending to acquisitions — a decade low — as capex and R&D took priority. The Magnificent Seven alone spent nearly USD 500 bn on capex and R&D through 3Q, crowding out dealmaking.

US and China were still the two biggest M&A markets: US targets drove nearly half of global strategic transaction value growth, while Greater China led by transaction count thanks to domestic activity. EMEA’s M&A market lagged — with volumes falling 7% despite strong growth in transaction value.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are in the green this morning after China held its loan prime rates steady, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s CSI 300 both gaining more than 0.5%. Japan’s Nikkei was also up 1.6%, while South Korea’s Kospi rose 1.8%. Over on Wall Street, futures are also edging higher ahead of a shortened holiday week.

TASI

10,485

+0.3% (YTD: -12.9%)

MSCI Tadawul 30

1,377

+0.1% (YTD: -8.7%)

NomuC

23,455

+0.4% (YTD: 25.5%)

USD : SAR (SAMA)

USD 3.75 Sell

USD 3.75 Buy

Interest rates

4.5% repo

4.0% reverse repo

EGX30

41,348

+1.0% (YTD: +39.0%)

ADX

9,967

-0.3% (YTD: +5.8%)

DFM

6,114

+0.6% (YTD: +18.5%)

S&P 500

6,835

+0.9% (YTD: +16.2%)

FTSE 100

9,897

+0.6% (YTD: +21.1%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,760

+0.3% (YTD: +17.7%)

Brent crude

USD 60.47

+1.1%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.98

+1.9%

Gold

USD 4,387

+0.5%

BTC

USD 88,187

+0.3% (YTD: -6.6%)

Sukuk/bond market index

919.03

0.0% (YTD: +1.9%)

S&P MENA bond & sukuk

151.80

-0.1% (YTD: +8.5%)

VIX (Fear gauge)

14.91

-11.6% (YTD: -14.1%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 0.3% yesterday on turnover of SAR 2.6 bn. The index is down 12.9% YTD.

In the green: Nama Chemicals (+10.0%), Almasar Alshamil (+9.2%), and SPM (+8.4%).

In the red: CMCER (-6.4%), Kingdom (-3.2%), and ACC (-2.5%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 0.4% yesterday on turnover of SAR 22.7 mn. The index is down 25.5% YTD.

In the green: Alfakhera (+16.4%), Almohafaza For Education (+9.7%), and Sign World (+8.6%).

In the red: Qomel (-7.2%), Aqaseem (-5.6%), and Naba Alsaha (-5.3%).

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