Good morning, ladies and gents. Business is taking it very slow this month, resulting in yet another brisk issue this morning. Our lead story dives into the extension of fee waivers for Tadawul and Edaa service charges for two more years, as regulators try to boost private-sector debt issuance.

WEATHER- Rain-bearing thunderclouds are expected over the Northern Borders, Al Jouf, Tabuk, Hail, Madinah, Makkah and Al Baha, with dusty winds in Riyadh and Qassim and mist in parts of the Eastern Province and the Kingdom’s southwestern highlands.

  • Riyadh: 28°C high / 16°C low.
  • Jeddah: 31°C high / 25°C low.
  • Makkah: 31°C high / 24°C low.
  • Dammam: 26°C high / 14°C low.

Watch this space

MACRO — Saudi’s oil and non-oil growth could face a notable slowdown if US-Iran tensions persist into 2026, according to a BMI research article. While Saudi Arabia can reroute a portion of its exports oil flows via the East-West (Petroline) pipeline to the Red Sea, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, the broader “halo effect” of regional stability would still be undermined by lower hydrocarbon exports.

A military conflict would hit both the oil and non-oil sectors, with the oil sector feeling the brunt. If combined with a partial or full closure of the Strait of Hormuz, hydrocarbon sector growth could see a 0.5 percentage point drop in a short-lived conflict and a 0.9 percentage point decline in a prolonged one.

Even a “status quo” scenario — marked by heightened security risks and increased ins. costs without physical disruption — could shave 0.1 percentage points off the Kingdom’s non-hydrocarbon growth, the report suggests.

GIGAPROJECTS — Will we see the Expo 2030 plan unveiled this month? The detailed master plan for the six-month Expo 2030 will reportedly be out in a matter of weeks, anonymous sources told AGBI. The UK-based consultancy Buro Happold is finalizing the details, after Germany’s Lava completed the concept design in September.

Where are we standing? Groundwork is already underway after Nesma & Partners secured the utilities and infrastructure mandate last month. The SAR 2 bn second phase will reportedly be awarded when the master plan is out, according to AGBI’s sources.

Recalibration likely won’t hit the Expo: The project is among time-sensitive developments that are widely expected to be prioritized, as the need for fiscal consolidation pushes a wave of delays and rethinking of less urgent projects, reportedly including Neom’s The Line, ski resort Trojena, and, more recently, the Mukaab.

DEBT — Ruya wants to seize Saudi’s lending opportunities: PIF-backed Ruya Partners plans to launch a USD 400 mn private credit fund to target GCC middle-market lending, the firm’s partner Omar AlYawer told Bloomberg. The new vehicle will focus on Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with family offices, pension funds, and endowments expected to take part in the raise.

Why it matters: While mega projects and sovereign-backed firms can easily tap bank loans, mid-sized companies in the region often find traditional financing too slow or inflexible to support scaling. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are emerging as private credit hubs, and Abu Dhabi-based Ruya’s fund aims to fill the gap where demand for flexible capital exceeds supply, helping support economic growth. There’s particularly strong demand for USD 10-50 mn loans in Saudi Arabia, AlYawer noted.

What’s next? The fund’s first close is expected in the coming months, AlYawer said. Over the next three years, Ruya plans to expand the fund’s scope to include real estate and infrastructure credit.

SPORTS — Is LIV Golf putting its teams on the market? LIV Golf is reportedly gearing up to sell minority stakes in two of its teams for the first time, eyeing valuations of up to USD 300 mn per team, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. The league reportedly tapped Citigroup to oversee the process, with a full control sale of one team also on the table.

Where things stand: The PIF-backed league operates 13 franchises, with team captains holding 25% equity. The executives’ endgame is to push each team toward a USD 1 bn valuation, driven by sponsorships and expanded use of rights.

AND- Benzema joins Al Hilal: France’s Karim Benzema has left Al Ittihad for Al Hilal, potentially threatening Cristiano Ronaldo’s hopes to secure his first league title. Ronaldo’s Al Nassr remains one point behind Al Hilal, the Kingdom’s most successful team with 21 league titles and four Asian Championships.

REGULATION — CMA to ease foreign ownership limits this year? The Capital Market Authority (CMA) is currently reviewing the 49% cap on foreign ownership in locally-listed companies and plans to tweak the rule soon. “We are committed to make it happen and we hope it’s going to be happening this year,” the regulator’s board member Abdulaziz Abdulmohsen Binhassan is quoted as saying at the Capital Markets Forum Select by Bloomberg.

The authority removing the cap could attract USD 10 bn in fresh capital inflows, according to Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan.

We’ve been anticipating the move for some time now, with Binhassan saying that the authority is nearing a final decision on the amendment back in September.

ENERGY— EIG Global to set up fund to hold onto Aramco assets: US investment firm EIG Global Partners is setting up a new fund for its stake in Aramco’s oil pipeline assets, as the current holding vehicle approaches the end of its term, Reuters reports, citing two sources it says are in the know. EIG Global has tapped investment bank PJT Partners to advise on the move, through which it intends to court new investors.

Remember: In 2021, a group of investors led by EIG paid USD 12.4 bn to partner with Aramco, securing a 49% stake in Aramco’s pipeline subsidiaries, while Aramco retained 51% ownership and control of the assets.

AND — KSA and Kuwait will issue tenders for the Al Durra field this year, Kuwaiti Oil Minister Tariq Al Roumi told Reuters yesterday, adding that all kinds of tenders will be on the table.

A point of contention: Gulf Cooperation Council ministers said the Al Durra gas field is only jointly owned by the KSA and Kuwait in 2024. Both nations have repeatedly affirmed their joint ownership, while Iran claims it has the rights to the field, which it names Arash.

Data point

SAR 1.6 tn — that’s the amount of consumer spending the Kingdom saw in 2025, up 11% y-o-y. Point of Sale (POS) spending rose 6% y-o-y to SAR 707.2 bn during the year, while e-commerce sales via Mada cards jumped 65% y-o-y to SAR 325.2 bn.

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The big story abroad

Elon Musk is merging SpaceX with xAI, creating a USD 1.25 tn venture, people in the know told Bloomberg. The move sets the stage for Musk to carry out his plan of setting up data centers in the planet’s orbit — he claims that that space will be the cheapest place for AI computing in two to three years. Properties formerly owned by xAI — Grok chatbot and X.com — now fall under SpaceX’s umbrella.

The world’s richest man still intends to take SpaceX public this year, in an IPO that could see the company raise as much as USD 50 bn, a source told Bloomberg.

AND- Our usual dose of global trade updates: US President Donald Trump has agreed to trim punitive tariffs on India on the condition that New Delhi stops buying Russian oil, reducing the levies from 25% to 18%. India will slash its levies on Washington down to zero. After a phone call with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Trump said New Delhi has agreed to buy more oil from Venezuela as well as upwards of USD 500 bn in US energy and other products.

Software giant Oracle has raised USD 25 bn in a blockbuster bond offering, attracting an orderbook of USD 127 bn at its peak, the Financial Times reports, citing people it says are familiar with the transaction. The funding came through amid concerns that Oracle was striking up an unsustainable level of debt to back its AI spending.

Circle your calendar

The two-day Private Sector Forum kicks off next Monday at the King Abdul Aziz International Conference Center. The event will bring together PIF portfolio companies, government entities, and global investors “to explore new opportunities and collaborate with peers driving Saudi Arabia’s economic future.”

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