The “sell America, buy Asia” trade has hit turbulence. One of 2026’s cleanest positioning calls is suddenly wobbling, as oil, war risk, and a firmer USD force investors to ask whether Asia’s rally was built for geopolitics after all, Bloomberg reports.

The market reaction has been blunt: The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down about 6% last week, versus a 2% drop for the S&P 500, as funds rotate back toward US assets and the USD regains haven status.

The problem for Asia: Asia imports the shock more directly than most, with Japan and South Korea especially exposed to Hormuz-linked shipments. China, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan are all heavily import-dependent, making this oil spike “exponentially more corrosive” for Asia than for the West, Vantage’s Hebe Chen said. Goldman Sachs estimates a 20% jump in Brent would shave as much as 2% off regional earnings.

The AI trade is now part of the unwind. Investors are trimming last year’s hardware outperformers — especially South Korea and Taiwan — as higher energy costs collide with rich multiples and make capital-heavy tech stories harder to defend.

Credit is flashing the same warning: A Julius Baer note seen by EnterpriseAM says Asian CDS spreads are widening across oil-importing economies, with India up 6.6 bps in a week and higher-risk Southeast Asian names moving 4-6 bps, as markets begin pricing a steeper regional risk premium if the war drags on.

Truth is, some of that fatigue predated the geopolitical jitters. Foreign investors sold Asian equities for a fourth straight month in February, Reuters reports, with South Korea alone posting record outflows of USD 13.7 bn, as AI valuation nerves had already started spilling far beyond Wall Street.

TASI

10,776

+0.8% (YTD: +2.7%)

MSCI Tadawul 30

1,462

+0.8% (YTD: +5.4%)

NomuC

22,497

+0.5% (YTD: -3.4%)

USD : SAR (SAMA)

USD 3.75 Sell

USD 3.75 Buy

Interest rates

4.25% repo

3.75% reverse repo

EGX30

47,516

+2.3% (YTD: +13.6%)

ADX

9,903

-1.4% (YTD: -0.9%)

DFM

5,917

-3.2% (YTD: -2.2%)

S&P 500

6,740

-1.3% (YTD: -1.5%)

FTSE 100

10,285

-1.2% (YTD: +3.6%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,710

-1.1% (YTD: -1.2%)

Brent crude

USD 92.69

+8.5%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.19

+6.1%

Gold

USD 5,159

+1.6%

BTC

USD 67,259

-1.6% (YTD: -23.2%)

Sukuk/bond market index

919.29

0.0% (YTD: 0.0%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

151.78

-0.3% (YTD: -0.1%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

29.49

+24.2% (YTD: +97.3%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 0.8% last Thursday on turnover of SAR 5.2 bn. The index is up 2.7% YTD.

In the green: MIS (+10.0%), SRMG (+7.7%), and Shaker (+7.6%).

In the red: Catrion (-3.7%), Chemical (-3.1%), and Azm (-3.0%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 0.8% last Thursday on turnover of SAR 17.1 mn. The index is down 3.4% YTD.

In the green: Multi Business (+10.0%), Alshghal Almoysara (+9.97%), and HKC (+8.4%).

In the red: Almodawat (-11.0%), Amwaj International (-9.9%), and Sure (-8.8%).

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