Good morning, ladies and gents. Ramadan is less than three weeks away, and business is still going slow in the Kingdom as everyone awaits some clarity on whether US-Iran tensions will turn into open conflict (with catastrophic consequences) or last-minute diplomacy will prevail.

The race to avoid an all-out regional war is still on, with sources telling Reuters Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman was in Washington for meetings on the issue last week as Gulf and Arab officials try to de-escalate the US-Iran tensions. The Trump admin is weighing multiple options including targeted strikes on Iranian leaders, but no final decision has been reached yet, according to the sources.

In for a penny: Targeted strikes akin to the 12-day war last year are highly unlikely given Iran’s leadership vowed widespread retaliation even to a limited strike. The US will have to deploy troops on the ground to achieve its stated goal of toppling down the Khamenei regime as air strikes will not be enough, pundits and regional officials estimated.

Happening today

Tadawul is opening up its main market to direct investment for all categories of foreign investors starting today. Any foreign investor is now able to open an account and trade directly on TASI. Local brokers and custodians should have updated their compliance systems by now to absorb the new class of investors.

The catch? Ownership is still capped. Any single non-resident investor still cannot own 10% or more of a listed company, and aggregate foreign ownership in any company remains strictly limited to 49%. Analysts estimate that a full removal of the cap could unlock some USD 10 bn of passive inflows.

Analysts are expecting the move to boost long-term liquidity and appeal, but with a gradual initial impact. We should expect positive momentum this week, with foreign investors initially favoring blue-chip stocks over a broad-based rally, Razeen Capital CEO Mohammed Al Suwayed told Argaam.

** Want to dive in deeper? Check our coverage of the detailed amendments.

WEATHER- Fog, rain and winds set to sweep the Kingdom: Thunderclouds, bringing rain and fog, are expected over Jazan, Asir, Al-Baha, and Makkah and dust-stirring winds are forecast to sweep across Riyadh, Qassim, Najran and the Eastern Province.

• Riyadh: 29°C high / 14°C low.
• Jeddah: 32°C high / 22°C low.
• Makkah: 33°C high / 23°C low.
• Dammam: 28°C high / 12°C low.

Watch this space

ENERGY — Aramco is set to sell stakes in five gas-fired power plants in the coming weeks in an estimated USD 4 bn transaction, unnamed sources told Reuters. The prospective sale is part of a broader strategy by the oil giant to free up capital, boost net income, cut costs, and support dividend payments.

More divestments to come? Aramco, which already completed a USD 11 bn lease andleaseback agreement for its Jafurah gas project, may also divest additional assets such as housing, pipelines, and port infrastructure, the sources said.

Joining a fresh wave of sales from the Gulf: GCC governments are increasingly turning to foreign investors to fund economic diversification amid lower oil prices, offering stakes in previously off-limits assets — including pipelines, power plants, and ports — to free capital for high-growth projects while retaining operational control. Those riding the wave include Kuwait, which is planning to sell a stake in an oil pipeline network worth up to USD 7 bn, Reuters’ sources said.

Investors want a piece of the stable cashflow: Major global players — including Canada’s Caisse de dépôt, Australia’s Macquarie, and US-based BlackRock — are expanding their local presence to secure long-term agreements, according to the sources.

Looking ahead, the region is expected to see several more bn USD of these agreements over the next year, supported by sophisticated structures offering stable, USD-linked returns, Rajesh Singhi, Standard Chartered’s global co-head of M&A advisory, told the newswire.

MINING — Manara Minerals is looking to enter metals trading with a partner: State-controlled Manara Minerals has contacted over a dozen commodity traders, including Glencore, Mercuria, Javelin, Ocean Partners, and Trafigura, to help it expand into metals trading, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are in the know. Discussions are at an early stage, with options ranging from a joint venture to agency agreements or case-by-case partnerships.

Why it matters: Manara, a JV between the PIF and Maaden, holds a 10% stake in Vale BaseMetals, giving it copper a nickel offtake it has been tendering. A joint venture could better monetize this supply, internalizing the trader’s margin on its global offtake, and secure more raw materials for Saudi Arabia and Maaden.

Part of a regional foray: Regional investors, including Abu Dhabi’s International Resources Holding, are expanding into metals trading as commodity prices soar and critical minerals become geopolitically sensitive.

OIL — Saudi Arabia is expected to price its flagship Arab Light crude at a discount for March shipments to Asian buyers — the first move of this kind since December 2020 — thanks to abundant supply, Reuters reports, citing a survey of six refining sources. The grade is expected to see a USD 0.50-0.85 cut per barrel, down from a February premium of USD 0.30 per barrel, marking the lowest level in over five years and a continuation of three consecutive months of declines. This would place Arab Light at a discount of USD 0.20-0.55 a barrel against the Oman/Dubai average.

Meanwhile, Arab Extra Light and Arab Medium are expected to see similar cuts of USD 0.50-0.80 a barrel, while Arab Heavy is forecast to drop by USD 0.60-0.80 a barrel.

Contango signals weaker near-term demand: The price drop reflects a contango market in Dubai, where future oil prices are higher than current ones, indicating weaker demand for immediate shipments. Still, rising Asian demand, particularly from Indian refiners pivoting away from Russian barrels, could limit the extent of March price cuts.

REMEMBER- Opec+ spent much of last year rolling back previous production cuts, while the International Energy Agency warns of a market glut. See our Year in Review for a look at diverging oil market forecasts in 2026.

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The big story abroad

News of BTC’s steep price drop has caught the attention of the global press, as a wider selloff afflicted several major cryptocurrencies. Yesterday, BTC fell to its lowest level since April 2025, plunging below USD 80k, attributed to a failure to attract buying interest despite conditions that historically would have been supportive, namely the backsliding greenback. The dip wiped out some USD 111 bn off the crypto market’s total value in a single 24 hour period, according to data by CoinGecko.

AND- What could Trump’s Fed chair nomination mean for the central bank? The Federal Reserve may be looking at a “regime change” once US President Donald Trump’s pick for the chief position, former Fed governor and Wall Street veteran Kevin Warsh, replaces current Fed chair Jay Powell. Warsh has been critical of the Fed for gradually expanding its role beyond its original mandate. Markets are also expecting him to balk at the aggressive rate cuts called for by Trump.

Warsh is considered by some to be a “pragmatist” whose historical disposition against inflation is unlikely to result in unwarranted cuts that allow overheating of the economy, Navy Federal Credit Union chief economist Heather Long told Reuters. That said, more clarity on his future policy decision making is still needed. Warsh’s nomination is yet to be approved by the Senate.

ALSO WORTH READING- Investors are scrambling to reprice loans to software firms as the AI boom threatens digital products with obsolescence. Despite widespread optimism in debt markets, a loan sell off has hit software players, including Cloudera, which saw pricing on one of its loans drop by USD 0.07 last week. The stakes are especially high in light of software accounting for 12% of the credits in the Bloomberg US Leveraged Loan Index.