Gigaproject delays are reportedly starting to hit the capital

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Saudi Arabia leads EM debt in 2026

Good morning, friends. It’s another calm day for business in the Kingdom, as reports of gigaproject delays continue to dominate the coverage of Saudi in the foreign press.

The latest victim is reportedly the Mukaab. Construction work on the flagship development in the center of the new Murabba district in Riyadh has been mostly suspended, signalling the slowdown is starting to hit projects in the capital.

ALSO- Big banks are reporting healthy earnings in 2025, with Saudi National Bank and Al Rajhi Bank exceeding analyst expectations.

WEATHER- Don’t open your windows just yet. Dusty winds are still stirring in Riyadh, Al Jouf, Tabuk, Northern Borders, with medium to light showers expected over the capital, Makkah, Madinah, Al Baha, the Eastern Province, Qassim, and Asir.

Riyadh: 24°C high / 10°C low.
Jeddah: 30°C high / 20°C low.
Makkah: 31°C high / 21°C low.
Dammam: 22°C high / 10°C low.

Watch this space

DEBT — Fitch Ratings sees the country’s debt capital market (DCM) reaching USD 600 bn in outstanding value by 2026, cementing the Kingdom’s position as the heavyweight of emerging market debt.

In a record-breaking 2025, Saudi Arabia emerged as the dominant force in emerging market debt issuance (excluding China), capturing an 18% share of all USD-denominated issuances and a massive 26% of the ESG USD market. While total outstanding DCM grew 21% to USD 520 bn last year — with sukuk maintaining a lion’s share of 62% — the real shift is structural: foreign participation in domestic primary markets more than doubled to 10%.

It’s about liquidity squeeze at home: Local banks are increasingly turning to subordinated sukuk to tap into USD markets as domestic SAR liquidity remains tight. The National Debt Management Center is now targeting up to 50% of sovereign funding from private markets, signaling a clear pivot toward a sophisticated, global investor base. The risk? Any major shift in shariah compliance standards or a sustained dip in oil prices could sharpen the cost of this massive borrowing spree.

PIF — The Public Investment Fund (PIF) is looking to enlist prominent families and businesses as partners in future investment prospects, Bloomberg reported, citing unnamed sources it said are familiar with the matter. The Investment Ministry and other government entities have stepped up outreach to family offices, wealth managers, and domestic businesses, aiming to encourage local capital to play a bigger role alongside global investors in financing the Kingdom’s economic transformation.

The pool of potential capital is large. “There are big portfolios. The wealth is sizable,” said Ayth Al Mubarak, CEO of the National Center for Family Businesses, pointing to the long-standing dominance of family-owned firms, which account for nearly 95% of the Kingdom’s private sector. That pool could widen further as the government looks to give smaller families access to gigaprojects that were once largely reserved for the state.

Why it matters: The push comes as the PIF seeks fresh funding amid tighter fiscal conditions, rising debt, and a more constrained global capital environment. By mobilizing domestic families and businesses — which collectively control hundreds of bns of USD — the fund aims to deepen local participation in its dealmaking while easing pressure on public finances. The timing is driven, in part, by a pullback from banks as liquidity tightens, pushing local companies to look beyond traditional lenders and opening space for family offices to step in through co-investing or new funds.

REAL ESTATE — Khuzam Digital Valley emerged as a new hub for AI, cloud computing, and secure digital infrastructure at the Real Estate Future Forum, Al Arabiya reported. Developed by the National Housing Company’s (NHC) digital arm NHC Innovation, the 200k sqm project is designed to host data centers and advanced technology firms spanning AI, cloud, telecoms, utilities, energy, and digital services.

Momentum is also building around real estate tokenization. Regulatory and technical frameworks are in the final stages, with nine companies already piloting property coding and application processes, Municipalities and Housing Minister Majid Al Hogail told Asharq Business. The Kingdom plans to open its real estate tokenization market to global investors by June 2026, including enabling foreign Muslims to own property in holy cities via secure digital platforms.

The broader housing pipeline remains robust. Riyadh alone is set to receive 300k housing units over the next three years, supported by 100 mn sqm of serviced land, Hogail said. At the center of this expansion is the NHC, which plans to inject 300k units into the market in its next phase, CEO Mohammad Albuty told Al Arabiya. The company aims to supply over 80k new units this year alone.

ALSO IN REAL ESTATE — Emaar Economic City will ride the wave of the ForeignProperty Ownership Law, with its King Abdullah Economic City (KAEC) project being “especially well suited” for non-Saudi owners, CEO Abdulaziz Alnowaiser told Asharq Business. In light of the new ownership paradigm, KAEC is attractive to potential foreign buyers due its close proximity to holy sites and existing outside urban centers with heavy ownership restrictions, Alnowaiser said. Emaar Economic City will soon start international marketing campaign efforts to court foreigners.

Data point

SAR 1.05 tn — that’s the value of foreign direct investment in the Kingdom by the end of 3Q 2025, marking a 10% increase y-o-y and accounting for 33% of Saudi’s total foreign investment, Argaam reported, citing Saudi Central Bank data.

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The big story abroad

Global trade is dominating headlines for the second morning running after the EU and India signed a trade agreement, paring down reciprocal tariffs on most goods. The move can be understood as a strategic buffer against volatile trade announcements by Washington. Markets will be watching closely Trump’s reaction to the news.

The EU is slashing or eliminating tariffs on 96.6% of goods bound for India, with its eyes doubling exports to India by 2032. Brussels will stagger these cuts over seven years, reaching zero tariffs on key commodities, like base metals, marine products, and textiles. In return, New Delhi is gradually cutting tariffs on EU-sourced cars, lowering them to 10% from as high as 110%, and fully axing duties on car parts in five to ten years. Other tariffs on machinery, pharma products, and chemicals are also getting mostly canceled.

Trump unfazed by USD slide: The greenback continued its slide on Tuesday, spurred on by comments made by US President Donald Trump, indicating a lack of concern about the currency’s decline —- “the USD is doing great,” he said in response to a question about the currency’s fall. The USD hit its lowest level in four years after a 1.3% dip yesterday, extending its 2026 losses to 2.6%.

AND IN MARKET NEWS- The S&P 500 closed at a fresh high yesterday, with investor optimism about the wave of upcoming Big Tech earnings fueling the rally. Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla will be out with their earnings today and Apple will follow suit tomorrow.

ALSO IT’S FED DAY- The US Federal Reserve will conclude its first policy meeting of 2026 today and markets are expecting a hold. Markets are also closely watching for Trump’s pick for Fed Chair Jay Powell’s replacement, with his nomination expected sometime this week.

WATCH THIS SPACE- Saudi Arabia yesterday said that it would not allow its airspace or territory to be used in an attack on Iran, Reuters reports. The news, delivered on a call between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Iran’s president, came a day after the UAE made a similar statement.

In context: Trump said last week that an “armada” was steaming toward Tehran.

Work on New Murabba’s flagship Mukaab suspended, Reuters reports

It seems gigaprojects in Riyadh are not immune to the recalibration wave, as was once thought. Unnamed sources told Reuters plans to construct the Mukaab — the cube-shaped skyscraper lying at the center of the New Murabba development in the capital — have been put on hold until the government takes another look at whether the project’s financials make sense.

The details: All construction work on the metal cube — touted to be “the world’s largest building by area,” spanning over 2.6 mn sqm of floor space — is reportedly suspended, save for soil excavation and pilings.

Why it matters

The suspension would be the latest in a series of adjustments to timelines and scopes of megaprojects. Economy Minister Ibrahim Al Faleh said last week on the sidelines of Davos that the changes were driven by concerns of overheating the Kingdom’s economy. “We don’t want to overheat the economy, we don’t want value leakage by creating increased import pressure, and we don’t want to create an inflationary environment,” he told the newswire.

Delays and suspensions are hitting many gigaprojects at this point: Just this week, reports have been mounting of plans to rethink Neom to be a data center hub to serve the Kingdom’s AI ambitions and crunch down its futuristic city The Line. The 2029 Asian Winter Games have also been postponed indefinitely as Neom’s ski resort Trojena is also facing delays.

What’s new here is the location: The Mukaab is part of the New Murabba district set to be located at the heart of Riyadh, estimated by Knight Frank to cost a total of USD 50 bn, with USD 100 mn already commissioned. Pundits were expecting the capital’s projects to continue on their path, unaffected by the reviews, in addition to time-sensitive developments such as infrastructure for the 2030 World Expo and the 2034 World Cup.

Real estate is a different matter

While the Mukaab’s suspension casts doubts, sources are saying real estate development is planned to continue normally in the district. Earlier plans showed the district would span over 14.1 sq km and include some 104k residential units.

It makes sense: With efforts underway to reform Saudi’s real estate market in a bid to rebalance supply and demand and resolve the affordability crisis, especially in the capital, it’s unlikely development of new residential units will be hit by the ongoing revisions.

Al Rajhi Bank, SNB beat expectations in 2025

Big banks are reporting healthy earnings for last year, with Al Rajhi Bank and Saudi National Bank’s net income inching over analyst expectations.

Saudi National Bank

Saudi National Bank reported an 18% y-o-y increase in net income to SAR 25 bn in 2025, beating Bloomberg analysts’ expectations of SAR 23.7 bn. The growth was fueled by an 8.8% increase in total operating income, partially tempered by a 9.4% decline in operating expenses.

The bank’s total income from financing went up 3.6% y-o-y to SAR 46.4 bn during the year, while its total income from investments grew 11.7% y-o-y to SAR 14.5 bn.

A Rajhi Bank

Al Rajhi Bank saw its net income rise 26% y-o-y to SAR 24.8 bn in 2025 — slightly exceeding Bloomberg analysts’ expectations of SAR 24.5 bn — the bank said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The growth was buoyed by a 22% increase in total operating income, which was partially offset by a 13.5% rise in operating expenses and higher impairment charges.

Total income from financing climbed 16.2% y-o-y to SAR 46.2 bn over the same period, while its total income from investments jumped 32.9% y-o-y to SAR 9.6 bn.

Dividends: The bank’s board recommended the distribution of SAR 7 bn in dividends for 2H 2025 at SAR 1.75 a share, it said in a separate disclosure. The distribution date is yet to be announced.

Saudi-UAE rift raises business concerns across the Gulf

Tensions between Saudi and the UAE over Yemen are bringing into sharp relief the longtime challenge facing many global financial firms here: If you want a share of the bns that sovereign funds are spending, you need to declare for “Team Riyadh” or “Team Abu Dhabi.”

It’s a “delicate balancing act,” Bloomberg writes, that now has some International firms preparing contingency plans following a Saudi ultimatum for UAE forces to withdraw from Yemen. The business information program writes that some UAE-based companies are claiming to have challenges securing Saudi business visas, while others are weighing whether to stockpile inventory or relocate headquarters to Riyadh to comply with the RHQ program.

The silver lining: Analysts remain cautiously optimistic as Saudi ministers have signaled a willingness to de-escalate — and Emirati institutions continue underwriting Saudi debt. The deeply integrated nature of Gulf trade suggests business will largely continue — absent a major escalation, Bloomberg suggests.

Wealthtech Vennre locks in SAR 36 mn pre-Series A

Vennre raises SAR 36 mn in a pre-Series A funding round

Homegrown wealth creation platform Vennre bagged USD 9.6 mn (SAR 36 mn) in a pre-Series A round, according to an emailed statement (pdf) to EnterpriseAM. Structured as a hybrid of equity and debt, the round was co-led by Vision Ventures and ANB Capital’s Seed Fund, with participation from Sanabil 500, Ace & Co, Plus VC, and individual investors.

About Vennre: Founded in 2021 by CEO Ziad Mabsout (LinkedIn), CDO Abdulrahman Al Malik (LinkedIn), and CIO Anas Halabi (LinkedIn), Vennre provides high earners who are not rich yet (HENRYs) with shariah-compliant access to curated private investment prospects traditionally limited to institutions and ultra-wealthy investors.

Yanbu wind farm secures USD 305 mn in JBIC-led financing

Riyad Al Sahil secured USD 305 mn in financing for the 700 MW Yanbu wind farm, according to a press release. The package, which includes USD 152 mn from the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), alongside commercial lenders like Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, Standard Chartered, and Bank of China, moves the project from a signed power purchase agreement into the construction phase. The facility will sell power to the Saudi Power Procurement Company under a 25-year contract.

Glamera to acquire Bookr, expanding its Gulf beauty and wellness footprint

Lifestyle tech platform Glamera Holding will acquire multi-market beauty services provider Bookr Group under an MoU to expand its GCC footprint, it said in a statement. Glamera will integrate the operations of Bookr Group, which operates in the Kingdom, Kuwait, and Bahrain, serving over 300k users, into its platform for better market penetration. This comes as Glamera eyes building a unified AI-driven ecosystem for providers in the beauty and wellness sector.

About Glamera: Co-founded in 2022 by CEO Mohamed Hijazi (LinkedIn) and CTO Omar Fathy (LinkedIn), with headquarters in Riyadh and Egypt, Glamera says it surpassed SAR 4 bn in processed transactions and now serves over 4.5k providers regionally.

Goldman Sachs CEO sees resurgence in global capital markets in 2026

Goldman Sachs Chairman and CEO David Solomon shared a broadly optimistic outlook for the global economy in 2026, citing a “constructive” macro environment driven by AI infrastructure investment, regulatory shifts, and continued fiscal stimulus, he said on the Exchanges podcast (listen, runtime: 22:08). Despite lingering geopolitical “noise” and a fragile US labor market, Solomon anticipates a potentially record-breaking year for M&As and a strong IPO pipeline.

What to expect

M&A set to accelerate in 2026: This year’s M&A activity could surpass the strong levels seen in 2025, Solomon said, calling 2026 potentially “one of the best M&A years ever.” Drawing on Goldman Sachs’ transaction backlog and client engagement, he said corporate sentiment remains solid, with transaction flow likely to continue, barring major external surprises. The shift to a more permissive regulatory tone has also helped encourage dealmaking after years of rejections.

The outlook for IPOs is also improving, fueled by stronger private equity activity and portfolio valuations that are aligning more closely with the market, Solomon said. He noted that some large private companies that previously delayed listings are now reconsidering going public. While issuance is unlikely to reach the 2021 peak, he expects IPO activity to continue the steady recovery seen in 2025.

Behind the scenes

Policy support and AI investment underpin growth: The global macro environment remains supportive for markets and risk assets heading into 2026, particularly in the US, Solomon argues. He pointed to a combination of sustained fiscal stimulus, monetary easing following 100 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, a more business-friendly regulatory environment, and a major capital investment boom driven by AI infrastructure.

Risks on the horizon: Solomon cautioned that policy uncertainty from Washington and global geopolitical tensions remain the main risks, citing a “shotgun approach” that unsettles business leaders. He pointed to recent headlines on Greenland and European tariffs as potential triggers for market pullbacks. Still, the outlook remains positive barring a major exogenous shock (like a pandemic or a major cyber incident), highlighting technology-driven productivity gains as a key support for investors.

Zooming out

The gap is widening between the US, Europe, and China. The US benefits from a strong “innovation economy” and efficient capital markets, Solomon argued, with a USD 30 tn economy and 2% trend growth. Europe, by contrast, is a USD 20 tn economy of 450 mn people with sub-1% growth and slow progress on reforms, with only 11% of the Draghi plan for economic reform implemented. In China, equity markets rose 60-80% over the past year, but the underlying economy remains sluggish despite eased US tensions.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

The mood hasn’t shifted all week long — the anticipation of a wave of Big Tech earnings and the Fed’s rate decision are giving investors reason to stay optimistic. Asia-Pacific markets are mostly in the green in early trading this morning, with the Kospi leading gains.

TASI	11,382	+1.0% (YTD: +8.5%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,533	+0.9% (YTD: +10.5%)
NomuC	23,749	0.0% (YTD: +1.9%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	47,835	+0.7% (YTD: +14.4%)
ADX	10,355	+0.9% (YTD: +3.6%)
DFM	6,466	+0.3% (YTD: +6.9%)
S&P 500	6,979	+0.4% (YTD: +1.9%)
FTSE 100	10,208	+0.6% (YTD: +2.8%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,995	+0.6% (YTD: +3.5%)
Brent crude	USD 67.57	+3.0%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 6.43	-7.6%
Gold	USD 5,207	+1.7%
BTC	USD 89,343	+1.4% (YTD: +2.0%)
Sukuk/bond market index	917.16	-0.6% (YTD: -0.2%)
S&P MENA bond & sukuk	151.76	+0.1% (YTD: -0.1%)
VIX (Fear gauge)	16.35	+1.2% (YTD: +8.6%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 1% yesterday on turnover of SAR 6.6 bn. The index is up 8.5% YTD.

In the green: East Pipes (+9.9%), Teco (+9.9%) and Alaseel (+7.8%).

In the red: Maaden (-2.6%), SPM (-2.5%) and YC (-2.1%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC remained unchanged yesterday on turnover of SAR 24.9 mn. The index is up 1.9% YTD.

In the green: Almodawat (+11.5%), Meyar (+8.8%) and TMC (+8.5%).

In the red: Knowledgenet (-9.9%), Alqemam (-9.4%) and Apico (-8.4%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Banque Saudi Fransi’s board recommended the distribution of SAR 1.3 bn in dividends for the second half of 2025 at SAR 0.52 apiece, it said in a Tadawul disclosure. The distribution date is yet to be announced. This brings the total dividends for 2025 to SAR 2.7 bn, following the SAR 1.4 bn distributed in the first half.

CALENDAR

JANUARY

26-28 January (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Franchise Expo (SFE), Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre, Riyadh.

26-28 January (Monday-Wednesday): Real Estate Future Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh.

26-28 January (Monday-Wednesday): IFAT Saudi Arabia, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center, Riyadh.

28 January (Wednesday): Data Center Nation Riyadh, Riyadh.

28-30 January (Wednesday-Friday): Jeddah International Travel and Tourism Exhibition (JTTX), Jeddah.

FEBRUARY

2-4 February (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Media Forum, Riyadh.

2-4 February (Monday-Wednesday): Women Leaders Summit and Awards KSA, Riyadh.

2-13 February (Monday-Friday): 2026 Asian Road Cycling Championship and Paralympic Cycling, Qassim.

3-4 February (Tuesday-Wednesday): RLC Global Forum Annual Meeting, Riyadh.

4 February (Wednesday): Michelin Guide’s Restaurant Celebration, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh.

5 February (Thursday): Deadline to submit bids for EPC contract for Ras Mohaisen-Baha-Makkah Independent Water Transmission System.

5-7 February (Thursday-Saturday): LIV Golf 2026 season opener, Riyadh Golf Club, Riyadh.

8-12 February (Sunday-Thursday): World Defense Show, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center, Riyadh.

8-9 February (Sunday-Monday): AlUla Conference on Emerging Market Economies (ACEME), Maraya Hall, AlUla.

9-10 February (Monday-Tuesday): Global Games Show Riyadh 2026, Malf Hall, Riyadh.

9-14 February (Monday-Saturday): Asian Racing Conference, Crowne Plaza Riyadh RDC Hotel & Convention Centre, Riyadh.

11 February (Wednesday) Digital Transformation Summit Saudi Arabia (DTS), Riyadh.

11-14 February (Wednesday-Saturday): JeddaDerm, Jeddah.

13-14 February (Friday-Saturday): Jeddah E-Prix 2026, Jeddah.

15-17 February (Sunday-Tuesday): The World Advanced Manufacturing & Logistics Saudi Expo, Riyadh Front & Exhibition Center.

16 February (Monday): King Salman Stadium design-and-build contract prequalification submission deadline.

16 February (Monday): First day of Ramadan (TBC).

22 February (Sunday): Founding Day.

26 February (Thursday): Title deed registration deadline for 142.8k properties across 104 neighborhoods in Hail.

MARCH

12 March (Thursday): Deadline for real estate registration for 253.2k properties in 499 neighborhoods across Riyadh, Qassim, Makkah, and Hail.

18-23 March (Tuesday-Monday): Eid Al-Fitr holiday (TBC).

21 March (Saturday): Fanatics Flag Football Classic, Kingdom Arena, Riyadh.

31 March (Tuesday): Zatca’s 23rd E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

APRIL

6 April (Monday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

6-7 April (Monday-Tuesday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

13-16 April (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center – Malham.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21 April (Tuesday): GC Summit Saudi Arabia 2026, Saudi Arabia.

22-23 April (Wednesday-Thursday): The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah.

27-29 April (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

MAY

3-5 May (Sunday-Tuesday): Sports Investment Forum (SIF), Riyadh.

3-9 May (Sunday-Sunday): The Global Sustainability Expo, The Arena Riyadh Venue.

5-6 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh.

24-28 May (Sunday-Thursday): Eid al-Adha holiday.

JUNE

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production in 2026.
November: UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia.
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh.
The Intervision international music competition will take place in Saudi Arabia.
6 July-23 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh.
The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea.
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

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