Regional war day three: where do things stand?

As Operation Epic Fury enters its third day, neither the US and Israel nor Iran seem to be willing to de-escalate, with the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei having done nothing to slow the pace of the conflict. While airstrikes continued to target Iran’s military and political leadership, along with other targets throughout the country, a battered Iran has proved it still has the capabilities to respond and do damage to targets in Israel and Gulf nations on the other side of the Arabian Gulf.

Where do things stand this morning? Here’s what we know as of dispatch time this morning:

• Top Iranian military and political officials, including the defense minister and commander of the Armed Revolutionary Corps, were killed in Saturday’s strikes alongside Supreme Leader Khamenei;
• A three-man council including Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will run the country during a transitional period until a new supreme leader is chosen;
• Strikes on Iran will continue “throughout the week or as long as necessary,” US President Donald Trump said, adding he “agreed to talk” to the new Iranian leadership;
• Oman has been dragged into the conflict after its Duqm port was hit by drones;
• Israel targeted Beirut earlier today after Hezbollah fired several missiles at Israel on Sunday.
• A number of commercial vessels around the Strait of Hormuz were attacked yesterday, prompting ships and tankers to stay away for the time being;
• The UK has agreed to let the US use British military bases for “defensive” strikes on Iranian missile sites;
• European powers Germany, France, and the UK have affirmed their readiness to target Iran’s missile and drone launch capabilities;
• Three US troops were killed and five wounded, reportedly in Kuwait, while a missile struck a bunker in Israel, killing at least nine and wounding dozens.

GCC damages are getting out of hand

What’s been targeted in the Kingdom? Iranian media reports said attacks since yesterday targeted Prince Sultan Air Base in Riyadh, air bases in King Tabuk and Khamis Mushait, and an unnamed military facility west of Jeddah. It’s not clear whether the attacks caused any damage on the ground or any casualties. The pace seems to have been much slower compared to neighbors.

Outside the Kingdom, Tehran is waging widespread attacks in a bid to expand the conflict and exert pressure on the US through regional allies. Missiles and drones sparked fires at commercial and residential sites such as Palm Jumeirah in the UAE and high-rises in Bahrain’s Manama, and threatened global supply chains with strikes on critical infrastructure like the UAE’s Jebel Ali and Oman’s Duqm commercial ports, despite widespread interceptions by regional air defense systems.

Gulf countries are reaching their limit: Riyadh summoned the Iranian ambassador to condemn the attacks, a move echoed by others including Kuwait and Bahrain, while the UAE went so far as to close its Tehran embassy and withdraw the entire diplomatic mission.

Could we be looking at a direct GCC-Iran confrontation? We think that’s highly unlikely. Some are speculating that the widespread targeting of civilian and military infrastructure could push the GCC to launch collective retaliatory strikes — but we think that is a path no one wants to walk as it will lead to further escalation while doing little to undermine Iran’s mid-range offensive capabilities.

For now, the wager seems to be on who can hold their breath the longest. Tehran is under the obvious pressure of relentless strikes by much-superior air and naval forces, an unclear transitional period ahead, and internal opposition that it had to suppress violently a few weeks ago.

GCC keeps door open on retaliation: Gulf countries have affirmed their “right to respond” to Iran’s strikes, following a meeting of the GCC’s Ministerial Council. The bloc emphasized that it is prepared to take necessary measures to safeguard its sovereignty.

Meanwhile, domestic pressure in the US could play a role in making the conflict shorter. A Reuters/Ipsos poll yesterday found that just one in four Americans supports US strikes on Iran. With the US in a midterm year, Trump critics — and increasingly many of the MAGA faithful — see the Trump administration’s military adventurism as a danger to the Republican Party’s electoral chances alongside growing discontent with the White House’s handling of the economy. Yesterday evening’s news of the first US casualties is also likely to add pressure.