Good morning, wonderful people. The Kingdom’s housing push took it all the way to China, where NHC signed framework agreements with Chinese companies to build over 24k units in Saudi, as Minister Al Hogail’s visit paved the way for future projects. Meanwhile, the IPO scene is heating up with two upcoming listings on Tadawul’s main and parallel markets, and reports of more companies tapping banks to get ready for 2026 listings. Let’s dive in.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- The subscription period for Sahat Almajd Trading’s IPO on Tadawul’s parallel market Nomu kicks off today and runs until Thursday, 23 October, Tadawul said on X on Thursday. Qualified investors can each subscribe for a minimum of 100 shares and a maximum of 1.97 mn shares over the five-day subscription window. The final allocation of shares is slated for 28 October, with the surplus set to be refunded on 30 October.

REMEMBER- The Riyadh-based F&B player is floating 4.4 mn new shares — good for 11.1%of its post-IPO capital — in a primary offering priced at SAR 7 per share. The final offer will see the firm raise SAR 30.6 mn in IPO proceeds, earmarked for expansion, implying a market cap of SAR 275.6 mn at listing.

#2- Saudi Rail International kicks off today at the Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center. The two-day event brings together local and global players to explore the latest trends in the railway and transport industry, featuring more than 250 exhibiting brands and 200 speakers from around the world.

WEATHER- Storm watch: Thunderstorms are set to rumble across Jazan and Asir today, bringing heavy downpours, hail, and gusty winds. Rain-laden clouds could also drift toward Al Baha and Makkah, where fog may roll in by dawn. Expect hazy skies and dust-lifting winds sweeping through Madinah, Al Jouf, the Northern Borders, the Eastern Region, Riyadh, Tabuk, and Najran.

• Riyadh: 33°C high / 20°C low,
• Jeddah: 37°C high / 27°C low
• Makkah: 39°C high / 28°C low.

NEWS TRIGGERS-

#1- The General Authority for Statistics is set to release its 3Q real estate prices index on Monday, 20 October, according to the state statistics agency’s calendar. Eyes will be on the report to gauge the early impact of the sweeping reforms the government launched to tackle prices in the market, including opening property ownership to non-Saudis, permitting foreign investment in Makkah and Madinah real estate firms, and amending the White Land Tax law.

#2- Saudi Aramco will announce its 3Q 2025 financial results on Tuesday, 4 November, according to its website. The oil giant’s net income fell 22% in the second quarter of the year to just above SAR 85 bn (USD 22.7 bn). The drop came on the back of lower prices for crude oil, which logged an average realized price of USD 66.7/bbl, significantly down from USD 85.7/bbl in the same period last year.

PSAs-

NaqlThon 4 is now open for registration until Sunday, 2 November via the Naqlthon platform, the Transport General Authority said on X on Thursday. The competition aims to improve transport services and apply AI to enhance efficiency, with participants competing in tracks focused on sustainable transport, smart mobility, and crowd management for a prize pool of up to SAR 300k.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- The consortium investing in Aramco’s USD 11 bn Jafurah gas infrastructure project reportedly includes the Public Investment Fund (PIF) and other global sovereign wealth funds, Semafor reports, citing sources it says are in the know. Heavyweights like the PIF, its Hassana pension fund, and the Arab Energy Fund will join the agreement as part of the group. Other investors include Mubadala Investment Co. and Lunate from the UAE, Abrdn Investcorp Infrastructure Partners from Bahrain, GIC from Singapore, and National Pension Service from South Korea.

IN CONTEXT- An undisclosed consortium led by BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) signed an USD 11 bn lease and leaseback agreement with Aramco for its Jafurah gas processing facilities in August. The agreement covers the Jafurah field gas plant and the Riyas NGL fractionation facility, which will be leased to a newly created subsidiary, Jafurah Midstream Gas Company (JMGC), and then leased back to Aramco for 20 years. Aramco will hold a 51% stake in JMGC, while the GIP-led consortium will own the remaining 49%. The consortium reportedly raised a financing package of nearly USD 10 bn last month to fund the investment.

The investors are joining a wave backing the gas production boost, after four Chinesestate-owned banks reportedly stepped up to provide over a third of the financing. The debt package includes some USD 1 bn each from the Bank of China, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and China Construction Bank, with around USD 750 mn from the Agricultural Bank of China.

#2- US-Saudi defense pact is on the table: The Kingdom is reportedly in talks with the US over a new defense pact, expected to be finalized during Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to the White House next month, the Financial Times reported on Friday, citing sources it said are familiar with the matter. “Discussions about signing something” are underway, but the “details are in flux,” a senior Trump administration official told the salmon-colored paper.

A Qatar-plus agreement? The pact is said to resemble the recent US-Qatar agreement, which treats any attack on Qatar as a threat to the US. Analysts suggest Riyadh is pursuing a “more robust” version, reportedly seeking access to F-35 fighter jets and cooperation on counter-drone systems, Kirsten Fontenrose, former US National Security Council director for the Gulf, said.

The Israel clause: US President Donald Trump expressed his hope that Riyadh will “soon” join the Abraham Accords, indicating that countries have expressed a willingness to join, he said in a Fox News interview on Friday (watch, runtime: 2:18). Normalization with Israel is expected to remain a sticking point in the talks, Arab Gulf States Institute’s Hussein Ibish told the FT.

IN CONTEXT-The talks come as Saudi Arabia remains one of the largest buyers of US weapons, including a USD 140 bn arms agreement announced during Trump’s visit in May — touted as the largest in history. Separately, the Kingdom signed a mutual defense pact with Pakistan last month — a move analysts see as Riyadh signaling its desire to diversify its security ties after the shock of Israeli strikes in Doha.

#3- The Public Investment Fund (PIF) plans to step up green bond issuances, as investor appetite for clean energy financing continues to increase, Princess Rasees Al Saud, the fund’s head of financial institutions and investor relations, said at Semafor’s World Economy Summit in Washington last week. While PIF's green bonds are mostly in USD, the fund is expanding into other currencies, potentially including the CNY, as it takes an “all-of-the-above” approach to meet investor preferences and align debt with projects, she said.

A strong track record: The PIF’s USD 11 bn in green bonds issued since 2022 were oversubscribed by up to six times, with demand expected to remain strong, Al Saud said. The fund has already fully allocated these proceeds, with 95% funding new projects like the Red Sea’s renewable-powered resorts.

ICYMI- The fund’s debut EUR 1.65 bn EUR-denominated green bond was more than 6x oversubscribed, with orders exceeding EUR 10 bn, it said in a press release on Thursday. The bond was issued last week in two tranches — a three-year tranche of EUR 800 mn at 58 bps over mid-swaps and a seven-year tranche of EUR 850 mn at 90 bps — to be listed on the London Stock Exchange.

#4- Local coffee shop operators HalfMillion, Barns, and The Coffee Address are reportedly mulling IPOs in 2026, aiming to capitalize on the rising consumer spending on restaurants and cafes in the Kingdom, Semafor reports, citing people it says are in the know. Half Million has reportedly tapped EFG Hermes and SNB Capital for the IPO, while Barns and The Coffee Address started dialogue with banks about potential share sales, the sources added.

ALSO- Dubai-based luxury confectioner and café chain Bateel International is said to be weighing an IPO on Tadawul, according to news floated last month. The group, which is majority-owned by Saudi royal family Al Sudairi, reportedly tapped Morgan Stanley and approached local banks to explore a public listing in Riyadh. Healthcare products distributor Tamer Group is also planning an IPO with HSBC, the sources told the news outlet.

#5- The Kingdom and Russia are set to deepen economic and energy cooperation with a joint business forum, bringing together around 100 Russian companies and Saudi private-sector participants, Asharq Al Awsat quoted Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman as saying during the Russian Energy Week held last week. The minister also met Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak to discuss joint projects in LNG, hydropower, and nuclear energy, as well as broader Opec+ cooperation.

DATA POINTS-

Railway passengers in the Kingdom increased 40.9% y-o-y to 42.7 mn in 2024, according to Gastat’s 2024 Railway Transport Statistics Publication (pdf). Intracity transport accounted for 72.8% of passengers, covering 2.6 mn km, while intercity routes made up 27.2% of passenger volume over 35.6k trips spanning 12.5 mn km. Intercity passenger traffic rose 42.2% y-o-y in total passenger-km, hitting 3.7 bn.

On the freight side: Freight volumes climbed 9% y-o-y to over 15.6 mn tons during the year, transported through 6.8k trips spanning 6.3 mn km. The North Train line carried 90.6% of total freight, led by bauxite (33.7%) and phosphate (30.7%). Container transport on the East Train grew 27.0% y-o-y to 887.9k units, though overall freight ton-km fell 9.8% y-o-y.

Infrastructure expanded, with 15 intercity passenger stations, 93 locomotives, and 673 coaches — up 20.4% y-o-y — bringing the total seating capacity to 18.4k. The freight network included 12 stations, 175 locomotives (up 10.8%), and 3.4k wagons (up 1.3%), while intracity passenger stations reached 110.

OIL WATCH-

#1- Oil prices could fall toward USD 50 per barrel if the Russia-Ukraine war de-escalates, senior commodities strategist Eric Lee at Citigroup told Bloomberg on Friday. A ceasefire — which the US eyes in the upcoming high-level talks next week — could halt Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s refineries and lead to eased restrictions on its crude, increasing global supply.

The hypothetical c. USD 10 decline in benchmark Brent crude — which now stands at USD 61 per barrel — would weigh heavily on oil producers, especially the US’ shale industry. Attention now turns to Opec leader Saudi Arabia as markets watch closely to see whether the Kingdom will defend prices by cutting production or line up with the US’ strategy favoring lower oil prices.

#2- India’s state-run refiners are planning to shift from Middle Eastern liquified petroleum gas (LPG) to US imports, Reuters reports, citing sources it says are familiar with the matter. State refiners have notified traditional suppliers in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other Gulf countries about the expected cuts, though the scale of the reduction has not been finalized, the sources added.

Balancing power? India imports around 65% of its LPG consumption — some 31 mn tons. Last year, India imported 8.1 mn tons from the UAE, 5 mn tons from Qatar, 3.4 mn tons from Kuwait, and 3.3 mn tons from Saudi Arabia. The country seeks to purchase around 2 mn tons of LPG from the US in 2026 through tenders.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Massive crowds of protestors have gathered across cities in the US on Saturday as part of the No Kings movement against US President Donald Trump’s policies, marking the second wave of such protests this year, following the June demonstrations. Demonstrators are protesting against Trump’s immigration crackdown, restrictions on press freedom, push to deploy National Guard troops to American cities, “authoritarian” agenda, and crackdown on First Amendment rights. Republicans and Trump allies branded the protests as anti-American, and a far-left Antifa movement. (Reuters | AP | Financial Times | Washington Post | CNN | BBC)

OVER IN ASIA- Pakistan and Afghanistan have agreed to an immediate ceasefire putting an end to a week of clashes on the border of the two countries, that have killed dozens and injured hundreds — in what was said to be the worst violence between the two nations since the Taliban took power in Kabul in 2021, Reuters reports. The agreement came during peace talks in Doha, mediated by the host country and Turkey.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The Global Health Exhibition will take place from 27 to 30 October at the Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Center. The four-day event will bring together over 160k health professionals and feature more than 2k exhibiting brands and 500 speakers from around the world to discuss the future of healthcare and advancing digital health solutions.

The Digital Government Forum will be held between 5-6 November at the JW Marriott Hotel in Riyadh, bringing together over 2k participants, including 400 government entities and 100 companies and entrepreneurs, with more than 30 workshops on the agenda. The two-day event will highlight success stories in the Kingdom’s digital transformation, showcase innovation in public services, and explore future trends and potential investments in the digital sector.