S&P forecasts strong non-oil growth for Saudi Arabia amidst widening deficits

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Salic eyes full control of Olam Agri

Good morning, ladies and gents. The calm before the 3Q earnings storm is still going this morning, with the news well dominated by S&P insights on non-oil growth and fiscal deficits, LSEG data on MENA bond issuances in the first nine months of 2025, and Bloomberg’s forecasts for Saudi banks’ earnings in 3Q.

We’re waiting for Gastat’s inflation figures for September, due out today. Annual inflation slightly accelerated to 2.3% y-o-y in August, up 0.2 percentage points from July and the highest level in two years.

WEATHER- Storm alert: Thunderstorms packing heavy rain, hail, and strong winds are set to drench parts of Jazan today, raising the risk of flash floods. Lighter to moderate showers are also expected across Makkah, Al Baha, Asir, and the southern parts of the Eastern Region, with fog likely forming over these areas and the coastal parts of Madinah. Dust-laden winds will continue sweeping parts of Riyadh, while the southern Red Sea may see rough seas and rain-bearing thunderclouds.

Riyadh: 34°C high / 21°C low,
Jeddah: 36°C high / 30°C low
Makkah: 39°C high / 28°C low.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Salic eyes full control of Olam Agri: PIF-backed Salic may be looking to exercise its option to eat up the remaining 20% of Singapore-based Olam Agri Holdings as it seeks full control of the agribusiness, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. The sovereign wealth fund is reportedly planning to start talks for the buyout, which plays into the Kingdom’s food security strategy, as early as next year.

The rationale: A takeover of Olam Agri would align with Saudi Arabia’s food security push to secure global supply chains and localize production, as the kingdom still imports around 80% of its food, the business news service said.

REFRESHER- Salic agreed in February to double its stake in Olam to 80% in a USD 1.8 bn transaction expected to close before year-end pending regulatory approval. The move valued Olam at about USD 4 bn, a 23% premium to the firm’s market capitalization, and granted the PIF-backed company a three-year call option to acquire the remainder.

#2- Former Lionsgate executive and Picturestart’s producer Erik Feig is set to launch a new independent film, TV, and live events company, called Arena SNK Studios, backed by up to USD 1 bn from Saudi entities, the Puck reported yesterday, citing unnamed sources. The funding comes from the Misk Foundation led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Japanese video game maker SNK (owned by Misk), and MBC Group.

More details: The venture will reportedly develop live-action and animated projects based on SNK’s classic game franchises from the 1980s and 1990s, alongside new original content. Feig will lead Arena SNK Studios, alongside a board chaired by Majid Al Ibrahim from MBC. The board will also reportedly include former Disney president Sean Bailey, Epic Games’ Charlie Wen, and Andreessen Horowitz partner Andrew Chen.

ALSO- Saudi throws a hat in the Oscars ring: Hijra will compete at the Oscars for the Best International Feature Film category, state news agency SPA reported on Monday. The 98th Academy Awards is set to take place next March in Los Angeles.

About Hijra: Written and directed by Shahad Ameen, the film follows three Saudi women from different generations — a grandmother and her two granddaughters traveling to Makkah to perform Hajj. The journey soon takes a dramatic turn when the eldest granddaughter, Sarah, disappears. The search mission forces the remaining pair to unveil long-held family secrets while demonstrating the women's generational gap.

#3- The baton is passed for Expo 2030: Saudi Arabia has officially begun preparations for Expo 2030 Riyadh after receiving the Bureau International des Expositions (BIE) host flag from Expo 2025 Osaka yesterday, state news agency SPA reports. The USD 8 bn, six-month event will open on 1 October 2030, drawing an estimated 42 mn visitors and contributing USD 64 bn to the Kingdom’s GDP during development, with an additional USD 5.6 bn while operational.

A high priority: The Kingdom is recalibrating its spending to prioritize time-sensitive international events like Expo 2030, along with the 2029 Asian Winter Games, and the 2034 Fifa World Cup.

We’re getting started: The PIF’s Expo 2030 Riyadh Company (ERC) — established by the PIF last June — is set to award its first of three planned infrastructure contracts for the Expo 2030 venue this December. Technical bids for the main utilities corridor are due 26 October, with commercial bids on 9 November. The ERC appointed Bechtel as project manager to oversee infrastructure works on the 6 sq km site, which will later be repurposed into a permanent global tourist village.

#4- PIF-backed Kayanee plans to expand across the Gulf and launch a wellness app by 2026, Kayanee’s Executive Director Abeer Alfouti told Semafor on Monday. Kayanee’s rollout begins this month in Riyadh, working with local pilates instructors, nutritionists, and small producers to grow the Kingdom’s wellness scene while training Saudi women to make its apparel locally — though designs are still created in Italy.

Wellnes in the skies: Kayanee is also partnering with PIF-owned Riyadh Air to supply amenity kits and loungewear for Business and Premium Economy passengers when the airline launches on 26 October, Riyadh Air said in a press release last week. It will also offer its healthy snacks, such as granola bars and smoothies, on Riyadh Air and at Red Sea resorts as part of its broader wellness network.

About Kayanee: Founded in 2023 by Ambassador to the US Princess Reema bint Bandar, Kayanee’s products — inspired by traditional Najdi styles — include modest activewear and abaya-like outfits designed for exercising comfortably in public.

DATA POINTS-

#1- The Industry and Mineral Resources Ministry issued 144 new licenses in August, with up to SAR 16.3 bn in estimated investments and 2.6k job prospects, the ministry said on X yesterday. Meanwhile, 113 new factories kicked off production with investments of up to SAR 14.2 bn, creating around 8.4k new jobs. The number of existing factories rose 9.3% y-o-y to 12.6k during the month.

#2- Over 128k commercial licenses were issued in 3Q 2025, bringing the total number of registrations to more than 1.7 mn by the end of the quarter, the Commerce Ministry said in its quartely business sector report (pdf).

OIL WATCH-

Global oil supply is set to surge by 3 mn bbl / d in 2025 — up from previous forecasts of 2.7 mn bbl / d — followed by another 2.4 mn bbl / d increase in 2026, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest monthly report. The rise will be driven by higher production from Opec+ members and others outside the group.

Supply is rising faster than demand: The IEA trimmed its forecast for world oil demand growth this year to some 700k bbl / d, 40k bbl / d lower than its previous estimate, citing weaker macroeconomic conditions. Consumption is expected to stay muted through 2025 and 2026, with annual growth averaging around 700k bbl / d.

The IEA is signaling a growing supply glut, with global output in September already up by 5.6 mn bbl / d from a year ago — 3.1 mn bbl / d of which came from Opec+. If current trends hold, global supply is estimated to exceed demand by some 4 mn bbl / d next year, compared to around 3.3 mn bbl / d last month.

That’s not what Opec said: In its monthly oil report, the group kept its global oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 1.3 mn bbl / d for 2025 and 1.4 mn bbl / d for 2026 — almost double the IEA’s — arguing that global supply is expected to match demand next year as the group continues to boost production.

SPORTS-

#1- We’re in the World Cup: Saudi Arabia secured their qualification for next year's World Cup finals in the US, Canada, and Mexico with a no-goal draw against Iraq in Jeddah on Tuesday. The Green Falcons needed only a point, and an injury-time save from goalkeeper Nawaf Al-Aqidi, who kept out Hassan Abdulkareem's curling free kick, ensured their progression.

#2- The ANB Arena will roar to life today until next Saturday, 18 October as the Six Kings Slam brings together tennis heavyweights, including Taylor Fritz, Alexander Zverev, Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, Jannik Sinner, and Jack Draper for a three-day clash of speed, power, and precision. Expect big names, high stakes, and plenty of fireworks on court.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Government bonds rallied yesterday as equities took a hit and investors piled into safe haven assets following renewed tensions between the US and China as the latter faces a 100% tariff on its goods after it tightened export controls on rare earth minerals.

The yield on the UK’s benchmark 10-year government bond — gilts — lost 8 basis points, while yields on US 10-year Treasuries fell 3 basis points, and yields on bonds in France, Germany, Italy, Australia, and Japan all edged lower. (CNBC)

Meanwhile, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled he would back another rate cut as preliminary labor market data shows signs of distress, despite the official jobs market data being delayed to the ongoing US government shutdown. (Financial Times)

CLOSER TO HOME- The fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement has already started to face snags, just a day after US President Donald Trump heralded the end of the war during his visit to the region. Israel said it would limit the volume of humanitarian aid going into Gaza to half since Hamas has failed to return the bodies of some of the deceased hostages, as was agreed. Hours later, though, Hamas delivered some of the bodies, but US President Donald Trump is threatening Hamas with retaliation if it does not lay down its arms.

The question of Hamas’ disarmament remains contentious, with Hamas yet to comply as it deploys hundreds of security forces in Gaza and follows through with executions of several people accused of collaborating with Israel. (Reuters | Bloomberg | Guardian)

Trump is also threatening to cut financial aid to Argentina if current president — and Trump ally — Javier Milei loses the upcoming election, threatening a USD 20 bn commitment to the country. (Guardian | Reuters | AP | New York Times)

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Construction Technology ConFex KSA (CTF KSA) will take place on 22 October at Crowne Plaza Riyadh RDC Hotel, gathering over 1k industry leaders to address the role of AI, digital twins, BIM, and robotics in advancing the Kingdom’s USD 1.3 tn gigaprojects. It will run alongside the Data Centre Technology ConFex (DCTC), which will feature over 60 exhibitors, 120 speakers, and an awards ceremony recognizing achievements in the construction sector.

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy to account for 57% of GDP in 2025 -S&P Global

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy is projected to make up 57% of the nation's GDP in 2025, underscoring the steady progress in the Kingdom’s economic diversification efforts, S&P Global Ratings said in its latest report. While the figure is likely to fluctuate with oil price volatility, the broader shift toward a more balanced economic model is helping to reduce the Kingdom’s exposure to external financial and commodity-related volatility.

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S&P Global raised its forecasts for the Kingdom’s GDP growth in 2025 to 3.7% In June — up from a previous forecast of 3.5% a month earlier — reflecting stronger prospects for oil production and prices. The agency highlighted several domestic growth drivers underpinning this outlook, including the Public Investment Fund’s USD 40 bn in annual diversification-led investments, the continued rise in female labor participation and home ownership, and a broader fiscal base following the introduction of VAT in 2018.

Oil demand is expected to grow modestly over 2025-2026, albeit at a slower pace than the 1.1 mn bbl / d recorded last year. The market’s surplus capacity — estimated at 5 mn bbl / d — is likely to widen after Opec+’s decision to unwind 2.2 mn bbl / d of production cuts. S&P Global expects oil prices to soften later this year due to an increase in inventories, with Brent crude averaging around USD 60 per barrel before recovering by about USD 5 per barrel in 2026.

Wider fiscal and external deficits are expected in the coming years, as softer oil revenues coincide with high public spending on infrastructure and development projects. Tthe Kingdom’s net government asset buffers will gradually decline, but remain around 40% of GDP between 2025 and 2028 — a level it views as strong enough to support the sovereign credit profile, the agency said.

The current account deficit is expected to persist at around 2.6% of GDP over the same period, with gross debt and banking system exposure set to increase moderately, reflecting ongoing financial needs tied to Vision 2030.
S&P Global projected In late July the fiscal deficits to average 4.4% of GDP, and the current account deficits to hover around 2.4% of GDP over 2025-2028, largely driven by spending on Vision 2030 projects, major international events, and rising imports for development projects. Gross external financing needs are expected to rise to 85% of current account receipts and usable reserves, up from 69% last year, supported by higher levels of short-term external debt issuance by local banks.

Meanwhile, the banking sector remains resilient, as S&P Global expects banks’ external debt to rise over the next 12-24 months but remain below 10% of total lending. Return on assets is expected to stay steady at 2.3% during the same period, as continued lending growth offsets the expected decline in interest rates. Interest costs for the government are also likely to stay below 5% of total revenues through 2028, given expectations that the US Federal Reserve interest rates will stabilize between 3.0% and 3.25% by 2026.

Saudi state-linked players were the region’s most active bond issuers in 9M 2025

The Kingdom accounted for 54% of total bond proceeds coming out of MENA in 9M 2025, making it the region’s most active issuer of conventional and Islamic paper YTD despite its share remaining unchanged y-o-y, according to LSEG data cited by Zawya. Domestic activity reflects mostly sovereign and some corporate borrowing, as funding needs tied to the government’s wide-reaching diversification agenda continue to drive issuance across energy, utilities, and infrastructure.

Gov’t + state-linked players drove the increase: Four of the heftiest debt sales in the region were Saudi-born, including two sovereign issuances worth USD 11.95 bn and USD 5.5 bn, along with Aramco’s USD 4.95 bn debt offering in May. Other sizable offerings included a USD 2.97 bn global sukuk offering, state-owned Saudi Electricity’s USD 2.75 bn sukuk, a USD 2.49 bn issuance by Saudi Real Estate Refinance (SRC) just last month, and another USD 2.35 bn sovereign debt issuance.

Debt over equity: Borrowing via bonds and sukuk now outpaces equity fundraising here at home by roughly three to one, according to Moody’s. State-linked giants are leading the charge as they tap capital markets to finance large-scale projects, helping the Kingdom maintain its lead in regional debt markets.

Who’s next to tap the market: The next wave could come from hospitality, retail, tourism, manufacturing, mining, and real estate companies — sectors that are poised to capitalize on Vision 2030 investment flows. Moody’s expects borrowing to accelerate across these industries, with firms showing strategic focus and financial discipline best placed to manage higher leverage.

ICYMI- Fitch sees the Kingdom’s debt capital markets crossing the USD 500 bn mark by year-end, buoyed by a widening budget deficit and a growing need to diversify funding in light of weaker oil prices. The Fitch expects Saudi Arabia’s borrowing mix to tilt increasingly toward non-market sources, as the government seeks to plug widening fiscal gaps without further crowding capital markets. The shift is already taking shape with Riyadh reportedly in talks to raise up to USD 10 bn through a syndicated loan, after securing at least two similar facilities since 2016.

ZOOMING OUT-

Domestic activity helped push the region’s bond proceeds to a record USD 125.9 bn in 9M 2025, up 20% y-o-y, with financial issuers accounting for the lion’s share of proceeds with 58%, followed by government and agencies with 25%. Volumes posted a record 27% increase. The UAE followed Saudi Arabia with 26% of total issuance, while Qatar ranked third with 9%. Kuwait also returned to the market after an eight-year hiatus, along with Oman, which made a comeback after four years.

Meanwhile, sukuk made up 38% of total bond proceeds in the region this year, up from 36% a year earlier, raising an all-time high of USD 48.2 bn in 9M 2025, up 28% y-o-y. Saudi Arabia led issuance in the Islamic debt market, accounting for the bulk of regional sukuk volume, followed by the UAE.

“GCC sukuk now account for 51% of total [global] supply, up from 46% in 2024. We've already surpassed record volumes in MENA bond and sukuk markets and expect further growth this year,” Nour Safa, managing director and head of MENA Debt Capital Markets at HSBC, told Zawya.

Who’s piling into Gulf debt? “Asian participation has been very strong in regional paper in 2025. It is much higher than prior years. This comes on the back of Asian investors trying to diversify their holdings away from home and seeing the GCC as a safe haven instrument,” Safa said. She added that tighter spreads and strong oversubscriptions also point to sustained investor demand for Gulf paper.

Bookrunner’s league table: Our friends at HSBC led the overall MENA bond market, including both conventional and Islamic issuances, with a 10.5% share of total proceeds, followed by Standard Chartered (9.1%) and JPMorgan (7.3%). In the sukuk segment, HSBC and Standard Chartered also shared the top spot, each arranging USD 3.9 bn in debt sales for an 8.1% market share.

IsDB issues EUR 500 mn in record green sukuk issuance to fund sustainable projects across member states

The Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) raised EUR 500 mn through a five-year green sukuk issuance, as part of its USD 25 bn Trust Certificate Issuance Program, it said in a press release last week. The transaction — issued under the bank’s enhanced 2025 Sustainable Finance Framework — marks IsDB’s first EUR benchmark issuance of the year and its second-ever green sukuk.

About the offering: The offering was priced at EUR mid-swaps plus 44 bps, three bps tighter than initial guidance, translating to a 2.793% annual rate. Orders exceeded EUR 2.6 bn — the largest EUR orderbook in the bank’s history, making the issuance 5x oversubscribed.

Where will the money go? Proceeds from the offering will finance and refinance green projects — including climate change adaptation, food security, and sustainable food systems — across the bank’s 57 member countries.

REMEMBER- The IsDB completed two USD-denominated issuances this year as part of the Trust Certificate Issuance Program, including a USD 1.75 bn sukuk in March offering a fixed annual return of 4.211%, followed by a USD 1.2 bn five-year sukuk in June priced at a semi-annual rate of 4.246%.

ADVISORS- Our friends at HSBC acted as joint lead managers, alongside Barclays, BNP Paribas, Commerzbank, Crédit Agricole CIB, ING, and Nomura.

Non-oil growth, liquidity crunch to boost Saudi banks' earnings in 3Q

Saudi banks' financial results are expected to reach record highs in 3Q 2025, with Tadawul-listed banks’ revenue projected to climb 4.6% y-o-y to SAR 21.5 bn, Asharq Business reported yesterday, citing data from Bloomberg. Lack of liquidity and expansion of non-oil activities underpinned the forecast.

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Al Rajhi is expected to post SAR 5.8 bn in earnings, outperforming Saudi National Bank — the largest bank by assets — with SAR 5.5 bn, according to Bloomberg data. Al Rajhi is followed by Banque Saudi Fransi, which is expected to post a 12.8% increase in earnings. Bank Al Jazira is set to post an 11.1% income growth, followed by Saudi Awwal Bank (+7.3%), Arab National Bank (+5.6%), and Bank Albilad (+5%).

Banks falling behind: Riyad Bank’s results are forecast to decline 5.5% y-o-y to SAR 2.5 bn. The Saudi Investment Bank and Alinma Bank are also expected to see declines.

The expected strong banks’ financial results are attributed to providing financing at high income margins, despite the decline in the Saudi Arabian Interbank Offered Rate (Saibor) as interest rates decrease, Hesham Abou Jamee, advisor at Naif Al Rajhi Investment, told the regional news outlet. The high borrowing costs compared to Saibor indicate a liquidity crunch, prompting borrowers to accept higher costs, which will positively impact profits, he noted.

Another driver is the boom of the non-oil activities in the private sector, Value Capital CEO Ibrahim Alnwaibet said. He expects Al Rajhi Bank to see its net income jump 12.9% y-o-y, or SAR 659 mn, accounting for 69% of the total banking sector’s growth for the quarter.

Al Muhafaza Education taps Adel Al Maghdawi as its new CEO

AlMuhafaza Education Company appointed Adel Ayed Awad Al Maghdawi as its new CEO, effective last Monday, following the resignation of Ibrahim Khalaf Hamlan Al Shammari due to personal reasons, it said in a Tadawul disclosure yesterday. The shift in leadership saw Al Shammari become a non-executive board member.

More about Al Maghdawi: Al Maghdawi brings over 33 years of experience in teaching and has held several administrative roles in public education, 13 of which were in higher education. He also served as CEO of a Saudi consultancy, with expertise in planning, project development, and arbitration.

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Al Jouf Agricultural bags loan to expand French fries factory

DEBT WATCH-

Al JoufAgricultural Development lined up an SAR 81.9 mn loan agreement from the Agricultural Development Fund to finance the expansion of a French fries factory, it said in a Tadawul disclosure on Sunday. The facility — backed by the factory’s assets and part of the company’s land — will be settled in 10 annual pay-offs after the grace period starts on 8 October 2028.

IN CONTEXT- Al Jouf broke ground on its French fries factory in August 2024, which is expected to be completed in 3Q 2026, with commercial production slated for 4Q 2026. The company has previously voiced plans to double its production capacity with investments worth SAR 87 mn.

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MANUFACTURING-

Madinah Industrial City got new aluminum foundry and housing complex: Industry and Mineral Resources Minister Bandar Alkhorayef inaugurated a SAR 140 mn Saudi Aluminium Foundry and a SAR 150 mn housing complex in Madinah Industrial City, the Saudi Authority for Industrial Cities and Technology Zones (Modon) said on X. The foundry aims to localize the production of auto parts and non-ferrous metals, while the 15k sqm housing complex will accommodate up to 1.5k workers.

EDUCATION-

Heriot-Watt University to open Saudi campus with Almasar Alshamil: Almasar Alshamil Education, a UAE-based subsidiary of Amanat Holdings, signed a non-binding heads of terms agreement with Scotland’s Heriot-Watt University to set up Heriot-Watt University Saudi Arabia, it said in a press release yesterday. Almasar Alshamil will act as a financial and strategic partner, while Heriot-Watt will provide academic and institutional leadership. The plan is pending final agreements and regulatory approvals.

About Heriot-Watt University: Established over 200 years ago in Scotland, Heriot-Watt University serves more than 25k students across campuses in the UK, Dubai, and Malaysia. It is most known for its engineering, technology, business, and finance programs and ranks among the UK’s top universities for graduate employability and research in fields such as AI, energy, and health technologies.

IMF upgrades global growth forecast, warns of tariffs and AI bubble

The IMF upgrades global growth forecast: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now forecasts global growth to reach 3.2% in 2025, a 0.2 percentage point upgrade from its July estimates, it said in its latest World Economic Outlook report (pdf). The fund expects growth to ease further to 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from the previous forecast.

Behind the steady outlook: The IMF said global activity has held up better than expected despite trade policy shifts, supported by lower-than-expected tariff rates, an agile private sector that front-loaded imports and rerouted supply chains, a weaker dollar, fiscal stimulus in Europe and China, and an AI-driven investment boom. “So bottom line: not as bad as we feared, but worse than we anticipated a year ago, and worse than we need,” Reuters quotes the IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas as saying earlier this week.

MENA gets an upgrade: The MENA region is expected to log a 3.3% growth this year, a 0.1 percentage point upgrade from July projections. Growth is set to accelerate next year to 3.7%, a 0.3 point upgrade. The IMF cited Saudi Arabia’s fast-than-anticipated oil production hikes and Egypt’s better-than-expected outrun in the first half of the year as the main drivers of the upgrade.

Major economies saw mixed revisions: The IMF now expects the US to grow 2.0% in 2025, a 0.1 percentage point upgrade from its July forecast, while Japan’s 2025 growth got an upgrade by 0.4 percentage point to 1.1%. Meanwhile, the fund lowered its forecast for Canada’s growth by 0.4 percentage point to 1.2%, and for the UK by 0.1 percentage point to 1.3%.

China and India also see stronger outlooks: China’s 2025 outlook stayed unchanged at 4.8% on the back of increased exports that the IMF says were unsustainable, pointing at the country’s contracting real estate sector pushing its economy to “the edge of debt-deflation trap,” Gourinchas noted. Meanwhile, India’s growth forecast rose by 0.2 percentage points to 6.6% for 2025, while the 2026 growth outlook got a downward revision to 6.2%, from earlier forecasts of 6.4%.

Across the Atlantic: Growth in the Eurozone is now projected at 1.2% in 2025, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points from July, buoyed by Germany’s fiscal expansion and Spain’s growing momentum. The IMF expects the area’s growth to reach 1.1% in 2026, down from 1.2% in the previous forecast.

Trade remains a swing factor: The fund projects global trade volumes to grow 3.6% in 2025,, driven by front-loaded shipments ahead of tariff hikes. This front-loading effect will likely carry over into 2026, with trade growth forecast to rise to 2.3% — 0.4 percentage point higher than the previous projection.

AI bubble is a major downside risk: Growing investments in AI echothe dot-com boom of the late 1990s, Gourinchas said in a blogpost. ”Markets could reprice sharply, especially if AI fails to justify lofty profit expectations. That would dent wealth and curb consumption, with adverse effects potentially reverberating through the financial system,” Gourinchas added.

The inflation outlook: Global headline inflation is forecasted to decline to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026, “virtually unchanged” from July’s or April’s projections. Inflation is expected to remain above target in the US, while easing in Europe and Asia, indicating lower growth performances.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are inching higher this morning, as Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is up 1.6% in early trading, while Japan’s Nikkei is up 1.3% and the Shanghai Composite is up 0.4%. Meanwhile, Wall Street futures are subdued following a volatile session fueled by US-China trade concerns.

TASI	11,596	0.0% (YTD: -3.7%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,510	+0.3% (YTD: +0.1%)
NomuC	25,689	-0.4% (YTD: -18.4%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.75% repo	4.25% reverse repo
EGX30	37,459	+0.1% (YTD: +26.0%)
ADX	10,111	+0.1% (YTD: +7.3%)
DFM	6,033	+1.4% (YTD: +17.0%)
S&P 500	6,644	-0.2% (YTD: +13.0%)
FTSE 100	9,453	+0.1% (YTD: +15.7%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,552	-0.3% (YTD: +13.4%)
Brent crude	USD 62.28	-1.6%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.01	-0.6%
Gold	USD 4,178	+0.4%
BTC	USD 113,327	-1.9% (YTD: +21.3%)
Sukuk/bond market index	922.54	0.0% (YTD: +2.26%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.00	0.0% (YTD: +7.9%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	20.81	+9.4% (YTD: +19.9%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI remained unchanged yesterday on turnover of SAR 5.8 bn. The index is down 3.7% YTD.

In the green: Abo Moati (+5.0%), Almawarid (+4.4%) and Petro Rabigh (+4.4%).

In the red: Naseej (-8.3%), Cenomi Retail (-3.7%) and Senaat (-3.2%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC fell 0.4% yesterday on turnover of SAR 40 mn. The index is down 18.4% YTD.

In the green: Lamasat (+9.8%), Alqemem (+5.9%) and Aictec (+5.5%).

In the red: CMCER (-8.9%), Alrashid Industrial (-7.7%) and Wajd Life (-6.5%).

CALENDAR

25 September-19 December (Thursday - Friday) 2025 Saudi Toyota Championship.

28 September-1 January: Title deed registration for 54k properties in 77 neighborhoods across Riyadh, Makkah, and the Eastern Province.

OCTOBER

12 October-15 January 2026: Title deed registration for 31.7k properties in 14 neighborhoods in the Eastern Province.

12 October-15 January 2026: Title deed registration for about 157.3k properties in 78 neighborhoods across the Eastern Province.

12 October-15 January 2026: Title deed registration for about 41.7k properties across 115 neighborhoods in Riyadh, Qassim, and the Eastern Province.

16 October (Thursday): Aviation Impact Middle East, Hyatt Regency Riyadh Olaya .

16-17 October (Thursday-Friday): Joy Forum 2025, SEF Arena, Blvd City, Riyadh.

17 October (Friday): Saudization for private healthcare roles enters its second phase.

19 October (Sunday): Canadian Medical Center Company’s (CMCER) shares will halt for the transfer.

19-20 October (Sunday-Monday): Saudi Rail International, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

21 October (Tuesday): The Visual Arts Commission will hold a public talk and a live performance in Paris through Asia NOW under its Art & Ideas program.

21-22 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Saudi Festival of Creativity (Athar), JAX District, Riyadh.

21-23 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Global Internet of Things Congress 2025 (GIoTC 2025), the Arena Venue, Riyadh.

22 October (Wednesday): Construction Technology ConFex KSA (CTF KSA), Crowne Plaza Riyadh RDC Hotel, Riyadh.

22 October (Wednesday): Data Centre Technology ConFex (DCTC), Crowne Plaza Riyadh RDC Hotel, Riyadh.

22-23 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Private Capital Forum, Riyadh.

23-25 October (Thursday-Saturday): Zenos Wellness Summit, Bab Samhan Hotel, Riyadh.

24 October-1 November (Friday-Saturday): AlUla Wellness Festival.

26-27 October (Sunday-Monday): The Global Proptech Summit 2025, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah, Riyadh.

27-30 October (Monday-Thursday): Global Health Exhibition, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Center, Riyadh.

27-30 October (Monday-Thursday): Future Investment Initiative (FII9), King Abdulaziz International Conference Center (KAICC) and the Ritz-Carlton, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

28 October (Tuesday): The Middle East Industry Congress – HVACR Next Generation, InterContinental Durrat Al Riyadh Resort & Spa in Riyadh.

NOVEMBER

2 November (Sunday): Naming ASICS Innovation Pitch competition’s six finalists.

2-3 November (Sunday-Monday): The Forbes Middle East Women’s Summit, Fairmont Riyadh Hotel.

3-9 November (Monday- Sunday): WTA Tour Finals, Riyadh.

5-8 November (Wednesday-Saturday): Binam Forum 2025, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

5-9 November (Wednesday-Sunday): Jewellery Salon Expo, Riyadh.

7-8 November (Sunday-Monday): The Visual Arts Commission will conclude its Art & Ideas program with a two-day symposium in Riyadh.

8-9 November (Saturday-Sunday): Del Monte Superleague Supercup, Jeddah.

9 November (Sunday): The deadline for applications for the second batch of the Standard Incentives for the Industrial sector deadline.

10-12 November (Monday-Wednesday): BioFach Saudi Arabia, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

11-13 November (Tuesday-Thursday): TouriseSummit, Riyadh.

16-17 November (Sunday-Monday): Jeddah Fintech Week 2025, Jeddah Hilton, Jeddah.

17-20 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre, Riyadh.

19-22 November (Wednesday-Saturday): PIF Saudi International Golf Championship, Riyadh Gold Club.

20 November (Thursday): Deadline for title deed registration for 14.6k properties across 21 neighborhoods in Qassim.

22 November (Saturday): The Ring IV, ANB arena, Riyadh.

23-26 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh.

23-27 November (Sunday-Thursday): Global Industry Summit by United Nations Industrial Development Organization, Riyadh.

24-26 November (Monday-Wednesday): The World Advanced Manufacturing & Logistics Saudi Expo, Riyadh.

24-26 November (Monday-Wednesday): Metropolis Madinah Conference for civilizational capitals, King Salman International Convention Centre (KSICC), Al Madinah.

25-26 November (Thursday-Saturday): The Global Sustainability Expo, The Arena Riyadh Venue, Ghirnatah.

25-29 November (Thursday-Monday): General Aviation Airshow 2025 - Sand & Fun, Riyadh.

27 November (Saturday): Deadline for title deed registration for 8.7k properties in Jeddah’s Al Sheraa and Al Amwaj neighborhoods.

27-30 November (Thursday-Sunday): World Rally Championship Saudi Arabia 2025, Jeddah.

28-30 November (Friday-Sunday): UIM F1H2O World Championship, Jeddah.

30 November (Sunday): Zatca 21st E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

30 November-1 December (Sunday-Monday): FII Priority Asia Summit, Tokyo.

DECEMBER

1-3 December (Monday-Wednesday): Industrial Transformation Saudi Arabia, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

1-4 December (Monday-Thursday): International Conference on Nuclear and Radiological Emergencies, Riyadh.

1-4 December (Monday-Thursday): 61st ISOCARP World Planning Congress, Riyadh.

7-9 December (Sunday-Tuesday): CoMotion Global 2025, Riyadh.

8-9 December (Monday-Tuesday): Digital Acceleration and Transformation Expo (DATE), JW Marriott hotel, Riyadh.

8-9 December (Monday-Tuesday): Climate Action and Renewable Energy (CARE), JW Marriott hotel, Riyadh.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

11 December (Thursday): Deadline for title deed registration for 214.2k properties across Riyadh and the Eastern Province.

16-17 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global Airports Forum (GAF) 2025, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center, Riyadh.

25 December (Thursday): Deadline for title deed registration for 64.4k properties across neighborhoods in Madinah, Makkah, Riyadh, and the Eastern Province.

25-27 December (Saturday-Monday): The Fortune Global Forum 2025, Riyadh.

31 December (Wednesday): Zatca 22nd E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

31 December (Wednesday): Cancellation of Fines and Exemption of Financial Penalties Initiative by the Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority (Zatca) deadline.

December: Made in Saudi exhibition, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center, Riyadh

2026

JANUARY

1 January (Thursday): Electronic salary transfer via the Musaned platform becomes mandatory for all domestic workers in the Kingdom.

13-15 January (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Minerals Forum, King Abdul Aziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

20 January (Tuesday): SuperReturn Saudi Arabia, Hotel Fairmont, Riyadh.

18-21 January (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Hospital Design and Build Expo, Riyadh.

26-27 (Monday-Tuesday): GPRC Summit, Riyadh.

26-28 (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Franchise Expo (SFE), Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre, Riyadh.

26-28 (Monday-Wednesday): Real Estate Future Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh.

26-28 (Monday-Wednesday): IFAT Saudi Arabia, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center, Riyadh,

27-28 (Tuesday-Wednesday): SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh.

28 (Wednesday): Data Center Nation Riyadh, Riyadh.

28-30 (Wednesday-Friday): Jeddah International Travel and Tourism Exhibition (JTTX), Jeddah.

FEBRUARY

2-4 (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Media Forum, Riyadh.

2-4 (Monday-Wednesday): Women Leaders Summit and Awards KSA, Riyadh.

2-13 (Monday-Friday): 2026 Asian Road Cycling Championship and Paralympic Cycling, Qassim.

3-4 (Tuesday-Wednesday): RLC Global Forum Annual Meeting, Riyadh.

5-7 February (Thursday-Saturday): LIV Golf 2026 season opener, Riyadh Golf Club, Riyadh.

8-12 February (Sunday-Thursday): World Defense Show, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center, Riyadh.

9-14 February (Monday-Saturday): Asian Racing Conference, Crowne Plaza Riyadh RDC Hotel & Convention Centre, Riyadh.

11 (Wednesday) Digital Transformation Summit Saudi Arabia (DTS), Riyadh.

11-14 (Wednesday-Saturday): JeddaDerm, Jeddah.

13-14 February (Friday-Saturday): Jeddah E-Prix 2026, Jeddah.

MARCH

21 March (Saturday): Fanatics Flag Football Classic, Kingdom Arena, Riyadh.

31 March (Tuesday): Zatca’s 23rd E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

APRIL

6 April (Monday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

6-7 April (Monday-Tuesday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

13-16 April (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21 April (Tuesday): GC Summit Saudi Arabia 2026, Saudi Arabia.

27-29 April (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

MAY

3-5 May (Sunday-Tuesday): Sports Investment Forum (SIF), Riyadh.

OCTOBER

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia.
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh.
The Intervision international music competition will take place in Saudi Arabia.
6 July-23 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh.
The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea.
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

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