GDP expected to grow 4.6% next year, FinMin says

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Acwa Power to break ground on Egypt green hydrogen project next year

Good morning, wonderful people, and welcome to a rather busy Wednesday — and the start of a new month. We enter 4Q 2025 with a healthy serving of updates on the economy, including the latest unemployment figures and the Finance Ministry’s growth and deficit outlook for 2026.

Also in this morning’s newswell: The Capital Market Authority signed off on Almasar Education’s upcoming Tadawul IPO, along with a handful of other planned transactions and listings, and Sahat Almajd is also moving towards debuting on Nomu after pricing its IPO.

WEATHER- Rainy skies persist, with showers expected over Asir till weekend, with moderate to light rain over Jazan, Makkah, and Al Baha. Riyadh is expected to see temperatures as high as 40°C and as low as 25°C, while Jeddah’s mercury will go up to 37°C before cooling down to 28°C, and Makkah will witness a 42°C high and a 30°C low.

PSA-

Over 17k investors affected by Dar Al Arkan Real Estate’s stock trading violations are now being compensated, the Capital Market Authority said in a statement on Tadawul. The payments follow a final ruling announced in mid-2023 obligating 17 violators and five investors to pay SAR 1.2 bn for the illegal gains made from these violations. The payments will be disbursed through a dedicated fund.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Acwa Power is aiming to begin work on its green hydrogen project in Egypt’s Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) by mid-2026, Hapi Journal quotes Executive Business Development Director Ayman Fayek as saying. The company is still studying the project, Fayek said.

Powering the facility: Acwa has a 3.4 GW project — 1.9 GW of wind and 1.5 GW of solar — that will be connected to the national electricity grid and used for green hydrogen production, he added.

Background: It was lastly reported that Acwa expects to complete the first, USD 4 bn portion of its green hydrogen project in the SCZone by 4Q 2028. Under the framework agreement inked in 2023, the company will invest at least USD 4 bn in the first phase of the project, which will have a production capacity of 600k metric tons of green ammonia annually. The second phase of the project will add another 2 mn metric tons of green ammonia to the plant’s production capacity.

#2- Dar Global is setting up its global headquarters in Riyadh, CEO Ziad Al Shaar told Al Arabiya. He described Saudi Arabia as the most important global real estate market for the next decade.

AND- Trump Plaza gets a timeline: The USD 1 bn Trump Plaza Jeddah — which Dar Global is building — is set to launch off-plan sales in early 2026, with construction starting mid-2026 and completion expected within three years, Al Shaar said. The 28k sqm mixed-use luxury development will include apartments, townhouses, offices, a retail courtyard, and serviced units. The plaza is the centerpiece of the larger 1 mn sqm “Manhattan masterplan” being developed by Dar Al Arkan in central Jeddah.

#3- Saudi to boost trade ties with Oman: Saudi Arabia inked a certificate of origin (CO) with Oman to streamline the mutual flow of goods and hike up commercial and industrial exports between the two Kingdoms, ONA reports.

SOUND SMART- A CO confirms the origin of a product — serving as a declaration to adhere to customs or trade requirements, according to the International Chamber of Commerce. They are required for customs clearance services to clarify duties or legitimacy of imports.

Background: The contract was initiated under the second phase of the pair’s plan to support the bilateral integration and trade of industrial goods, launched back in June. This includes creating a fast track for customs transactions, joint industrial investments, integrating industrial supply chains, easing procedures for registering industrial goods, and equal treatment of companies in their respective government tenders.

OIL WATCH-

Oil equities may be set for a rebound: Energy stocks have been among the year’s worst performers, weighed down by falling crude prices — with Brent down more than 9% YTD and WTI down over 8% — and record-low net long positions in WTI futures, Jay Pelosky, the Founder and Global Strategist at TPW Advisory wrote in Reuters. Yet, the sector led gains last week, hinting that the deeply bearish case could be softening, even as prices started to slip again.

The bearish narrative rests on oversupply forecasts: The IEA sees demand growth in 2026 at just 700k bbl / d, the lowest since 2009 outside the pandemic years. The US Energy Department expects Brent to average USD 51 / bbl in 2026 — down from roughly USD 70 at present — with inventories building by more than 1.7 mn bbl / d next year. That outlook is tied to the view that Opec+ will ramp up production after unwinding cuts, though analysts argue the group is already falling behind on quota.

Two wildcards could flip the script: Ukraine's drone strikes have sidelined about a quarter of Russia’s refining capacity, prompting Moscow to partially ban diesel exports — sending Brent up more than 1% after the announcement. Meanwhile, China has been importing nearly 1 mn bbl / d above its domestic needs on average this year. With significant storage capacity still unused, continued stockpiling could underpin demand in the months ahead.

The traditional commodity cycle is turning, as precious metals have already surged, with the Gold Miners ETF doubling YTD. Industrial metals have followed, with the Copper Miners ETF up nearly 30% over the past three months, leaving energy as the next likely leg. A weaker USD — the greenback is down almost 10% this year — could add momentum, as crude is priced in USD.

Risks remain: A prolonged trade war under Trump could weigh on global demand. Still, a looser US monetary policy, Beijing’s anti-deflation push, and surging AI-driven capex point to stronger growth. With positioning in oil so bearish, any upside surprise — whether from geopolitics, Opec+ shortfalls, or China’s buying spree — could deliver sharp gains in oil-linked equities.

SPORTS-

Saudi Arabia enters global cricket stage: Saudi Arabia is set to host major cricket for the first time through a strategic partnership between the Saudi Arabia Cricket Federation (SACF) and the UAE-based DP World International League T20 (ILT20), according to a press release. The agreement licenses ILT20 as an official league in the Kingdom, with future seasons expected to stage matches here at home.

A pathway for Saudi players: As part of the agreement, Saudi players will gain a direct pathway into the six-team franchise competition, with each franchise required to sign at least one Saudi cricketer. Development tournaments will also be staged in the Kingdom starting next year to nurture local talent.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

One story is on every front page this morning: The US government is on the verge of shutting down after lawmakers failed to reach a consensus on funding talks. US President Donald Trump told reporters the shutdown is “likely,” warning Democrats that his administration could take “irreversible” action — including mass firings of federal workers and the elimination of “programs they like” — if Congress fails to keep the government open. “We can get rid of a lot of things that we didn’t want and they’d be Democrat things.”

This would be the US’ first shutdown since 2019, when a shutdown lasted around five weeks during Trump’s first term. This time around, the stakes are slightly higher: The US Federal Reserve is set to meet at the end of October to discuss and make a decision on interest rates, and with a delay in government data expected — as well as potentially worse jobless data in light of Trump’s warnings — the Fed’s judgment could be further clouded ahead of the crucial decision. (Reuters | Bloomberg | BBC | The Guardian | Financial Times)

ALSO WORTH NOTING- Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is reportedly closing in on a USD 10 bn agreement to buy Occidental Petroleum’s petrochemicals arm OxyChem — a move the Financial Times says would be the conglomerate’s largest acquisition in three years. Occidental is offloading the unit as part of efforts to trim its USD 24 bn debt load. Berkshire, already Occidental’s biggest shareholder with nearly 27% of its stock, is said to be negotiating a cash purchase.

AND- Trump has given Hamas three to four days to respond to his proposed peace plan for Gaza, warning of a “very sad end” if it does not accept the proposal. The 20-point plan, which calls for an immediate ceasefire and Hamas’ disarmament, Israel’s staged withdrawal, and a transitional foreign-led government in Gaza, has received widespread global support, including from the Palestinian Authority. Hamas was not involved in the negotiations that led to the proposal. (Reuters | Guardian)

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The BibanForum will be held between 5-8 November at the Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center. The Monsha’at-organized, four-day event is expected to attract over 140k visitors from 150 countries, featuring panel discussions, interactive workshops, and an exhibition of breakthrough innovations targeting startups and SMEs.

FinMin projects 4.6% GDP growth in 2026 amid strong non-oil expansion

Saudi Arabia’s GDP is forecasted to grow 4.6% in 2026, on the back of expected growth in non-oil activities, the Finance Ministry said in its pre-budget statement for FY 2026 (pdf). The budget deficit is projected to stand at SAR 165 bn, or 3.3% of GDP in 2026 — 2.0 percentage points lower than the government’s expectation of a 5.3% deficit in 2025.

Money in, money out: Total revenues are expected to come in at SAR 1.147 tn in 2026, which is below the SAR 1.184 tn the ministry had budgeted for 2025, but above the estimated actual revenue of SAR 1.091 tn. Expenditures are forecast at SAR 1.313 tn in 2026, lower than the SAR 1.336 tn estimated for 2025, but still above the SAR 1.285 tn initially budgeted. The ministry said the outlook reflects commitments to Vision 2030 programs, infrastructure, and social initiatives, supported by both oil and non-oil revenues.

The ministry points at global risks on next year’s budget, such as geopolitical tensions, protectionist trade policies, supply chain disruptions, and uncertainty over US monetary policy, which could pressure global trade, oil demand, and investment flows. However, the government is adopting a cautious fiscal strategy, a conservative debt management, and flexible long-term planning to sustain stability while supporting economic diversification.

FinMin’s budget scenarios for 2026, with SAR 1.313 tn in expenditures:

Baseline scenario: A budget deficit of SAR 165 bn, with revenues at SAR 1.147 tn;
Low scenario: A budget deficit of SAR 250 bn, with revenues at SAR 1.063 tn;
High scenario: A budget deficit of SAR 107 bn, with revenues at SAR 1.21 tn.

Plugging the gap: The Kingdom will continue to draw on debt markets to meet its financing needs, as its strong fiscal position allows it to maintain its reserves and draw on an “additional fiscal space” to fill funding gaps. The ministry is set to introduce an annual medium-term borrowing plan through the National Debt Management Center, as it looks to shore up debt sustainability and diversify funding by accessing global debt markets.

For 2025, real GDP is forecasted to grow by 4.4%, buoyed by a 5% rise in non-oil activities, on the back of stronger domestic demand and job creation. The ministry expects to record a budget deficit of SAR 245 bn (5.3% of GDP) in 2025, compared to a SAR 101 deficit in its approved budget for the year, and more than doubling from 2024’s SAR 115.6 bn deficit.

Inflation is expected to accelerate to 2.3% in 2025 from last year’s 1.7%, on the back of “protective measures and policies.” Meanwhile, it is projected to ease to 2% the following year. Bloomberg also had the story.

REMEMBER- The Kingdom’s real GDP grew 3.9% y-o-y in 2Q 2025, pushed by a 4.6% growth in non-oil activities.

Varied outlooks: The IMF recently raised its forecast for Saudi Arabia’s 2025 GDP growth to 3.6%, up 0.6 percentage points from its April outlook. It has also upgraded its 2026 forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 3.9%. The OECD likewise revised up its 2025 projection to 3.7%, 1.9 percentage points higher than its June estimate. A recent Reuters poll anticipates Saudi Arabia to record 3.8% growth this year. Meanwhile, the World Bank maintained its June estimates of 2.8% growth for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026.

Saudi Arabia’s unemployment rate inches down to 3.2% in 2Q 2025

The overall unemployment rate in the Kingdom fell by 0.1 percentage points y-o-y to 3.2% in 2Q 2025, according to the latest labor market report (pdf) from state statistics agency Gastat. Unemployment among Saudis fell 0.3 percentage points y-o-y to 6.8%, while the expat unemployment rate rose 0.3 percentage points to 1.4%. Meanwhile, the employment-to-population ratio rose to 65.0% in 2Q 2025, compared to 64.0% in the same period last year.

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Unemployment climbed on a quarterly basis, with overall unemployment up 0.4 percentage points, Saudi unemployment widening 0.5 percentage points, and expat unemployment rising 0.6 percentage points, compared to 1Q 2025.

Gender unemployment gap shows uneven progress: The unemployment rate for Saudi women stood at 11.3% in 2Q 2025, down 1.5 percentage points y-o-y but up 0.7 percentage points from the record low seen in 1Q 2025. For Saudi men, unemployment edged up 0.3 percentage points y-o-y and q-o-q to 4.3%.

MEANWHILE- Saudi female youth (aged 15-24) saw a 0.7 percentage-point quarterly decrease in their employment-to-population ratio to 13.8%, while their labor force participation rate dipped 1.0 percentage point to 17.4%. The employment-to-population ratio for Saudi male youth also decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 28.0%, while their labor force participation rate fell by 1.4 percentage points to 31.6%.

How Saudis job hunt: The most commonly used job search method was directly applying to employers, used by 72.4% of jobseekers, followed by using the national unified employment platform Jadarat (56.3%), and asking friends or relatives about job listings (50.5%).

REMEMBER- The government established a new unemployment target of 5% for Saudi nationals by 2030, after meeting the original goal of 7% late last year.

Amanat Holdings’ Almasar Education is gearing up to debut 30% on Tadawul

Almasar Education gets the all-clear for a Saudi IPO: Almasar Education (formerly known as Amanat Education) — the schools arm of Dubai-listed private equity firm Amanat Holdings — secured approval from the Saudi Capital Market Authority (CMA) to float a 30% stake, or 30.7 mn shares, on main market Tadawul, according to two separate statements (here, pdf and here). While no timeline was given for the offering, CMA approvals are typically only valid for six months.

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Almasar Education operates across Saudi Arabia and the UAE, serving more than 23k students. Its portfolio includes: Human Development Company (60% owned), the largest private provider of special education needs in Saudi Arabia, covering education, medical and rehabilitation services; Middlesex University Dubai (100% owned), the first overseas campus of Middlesex University London; and NEMA Holding (35% owned), which runs Abu Dhabi University and Liwa University across five campuses in Abu Dhabi, Al Ain and Dubai.

Refresher: Amanat’s planned IPO of Almasar Education was expected to raise around USD 300 mn. Amanat had tapped SNB Capital in November 2024 to arrange the listing, which has been in the works since May 2024, when Amanat announced plans to carve out its education platform into a separate holding company. Its board discussed the proposal that July, and Almasar was formally launched as a standalone brand in March 2025, with headquarters in Riyadh.

In context: Analysts have cautioned that larger regional IPOs slated for earlier this year could face delays amid geopolitical risks and softer investor sentiment, even as the wider Tadawul pipeline holds up.

1H performance + outlook: Almasar reported a 23% y-o-y jump in its 1H 2025 revenue, with student numbers and beneficiaries rising to more than 23k, according to the disclosure.

What’s next for Almasar: The company is looking to expand its network of education centers and boost higher education enrollments while also exploring new offerings, including residential facilities for special needs education.

ALSO IN THE PIPELINE-

Cherry Trading and Coldchain manufacturer Consolidated Grunenfelder Saady Holding have been cleared to list 30% of their shares on Tadawul’s main market;
IT firm Ejada Systems, which missed its six-month IPO window, is set to resubmit an IPO application to the CMA;
PIF-backed Saudi Global Ports, Tabreed District Cooling, Medical procurement firm Nupco, Riyad Capital, and BNPL platform Tabby are among companies that tapped banks for potential IPOs;
F&B players Barns, Half Million, Deemah, and Hashi Bashi are said to be sounding out banks for potential debuts on the main market;
Almosafer is preparing for a public listing on Tadawul by late 2025 or early 2026;
Alternative hospitality platform Gathern, local contractor Mutlaq Al Ghowairi Contracting (MGC), PIF-backed CloudKitchens, fast delivery app Ninja, Meal subscription startup Calo, Emkan Finance, and Tamweel Aloula are all said to be considering Tadawul IPOs.

MEANWHILE- Almasar’s green light came alongside several other listings cleared by the regulator this week. The CMA gave the nod to Bidaya Finance’s SAR 1 bn debt instruments program. On the equity side, it cleared EFSIM Facilities Management to float 16.8 mn shares (30% of capital) on the main market and Khaled Dhafer & Brother’s Logistics Services Company to offer 700k shares (20%) on the parallel market Nomu. The restaurant operator Alromansiah also got the go-ahead to float 30% of its share capital, or 18 mn shares, on the main market.

Riyadh F&B operator Sahat Almajd targets SAR 30.6 mn from Nomu float

Sahat Almajd — the brand operator behind Specialty Coffee Jadeel, Spark, Susam, and Hanoverian — priced its Nomu IPO at SAR 7.0 per share, according to a bourse disclosure. The final offer will see it raise SAR 30.6 mn in IPO proceeds earmarked for expansion, and implies a market cap of SAR 275.6 mn at listing, according to our calculations. Qualified investors will be able to book between 100 and 1.97 mn shares each during a five-day subscription period starting Sunday, 19 October.

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Background: The Riyadh-based F&B player is floating 4.38 mn new shares — good for 11.1% of its post-IPO capital — in a primary offering on Tadawul’s parallel market. Proceeds, excluding SAR 2 mn in IPO-related costs, will be used to fund Sahat Almajd’s growth plans and widen its operational assets by an estimated SAR 50 mn.

ADVISORS- The company tapped Value Capital as the sole financial advisor and lead manager of the transaction. Receiving agents include our friends at EFG Hermes, Alinma Capital, BSF Capital, AlRajhi Capital, Albilad Capital, Riyad Capital, SNB Capital, AlJazira Capital, Alistithmar Capital, SAB Invest, Yaqeen Capital, Alkhabeer Capital, GIB Capital, ANB Capital, Derayah Financial, Sahm Capital, Musharaka Capital, and Awaed Al Osool Capital.

ALSO IN THE NOMU PIPELINE- The Capital Market Authority (CMA) recently approved the Nomu listing of Khaled Dhafer & Brother’s Logistics Services Company, online supplement store Alwazn Almithal y for Trading, Qudra for Communications and IT, and Afaq Al Arabiya for Transportation and Storage.

Stc to upscale Red Sea Global’s digital infrastructure with SAR 1.2 bn investment

Stc Group agreed to invest more than SAR 1.2 bn to expand digital infrastructure and services at Red Sea Global’s destinations, an investment that ranks among the largest of its kind in the Kingdom’s tourism sector, according to a press release published on Monday. The agreement aims to enhance customer digital experience and present Red Sea Global’s resorts and communities as smart global destinations.

What we know: Under the agreement, stc will provide high-speed networks, backup systems, cloud-based operations, and new data centers to support reliable digital services at Red Sea Global’s destinations. The agreement will also incorporate AI-driven services, digital twin modeling, and data analytics to improve operations, planning, and cybersecurity.

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ICYMI- RSG has funneled around SAR 42 bn into the development of the Red Sea Destination so far, of which SAR 14 bn were funded through credit facilities, CEO John Pagano said earlier this month. When it all comes together by 2030, the Red Sea Destination will feature 50 different resorts, 8k hotel rooms, and 1k residential units. The RSG has sold over SAR 1.5 bn worth of units in the destination, with additional SAR 2 bn pending.

Islamic Development Bank Group’s private sector arm closes USD 500 mn sukuk issuance

Islamic Corp. Development closes oversubscribed sukuk sale: The Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector (ICD) raised USD 500 mn in a five-year Reg S-compliant senior unsecured sukuk offering, which was 4x oversubscribed, Zawya reports.

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Tightened on strong demand: The issuance, which came under a wakala/murabaha structure, was tightened by 30 bps to be priced at 4.391% — 65 bps over US Treasuries — on strong demand after drawing more than USD 2 bn in orders. The interest rate will be paid semi-annually in arrears.

What’s next: Settlement is scheduled for Thursday, 9 October, with indicative ratings of A by S&P and A+ by Fitch. The notes will be listed on Nasdaq Dubai and Euronext Dublin. Information about how the firm intends to deploy proceeds from the debt sale was not disclosed.

About ICD: Founded in 1999, the Jeddah-based multilateral lender is the private sector arm of the Islamic Development Bank Group. Its shareholders include 56 member states, including all six GCC nations, alongside five financial institutions.

ADVISORS- Our friends at HSBC acted as joint lead managers and bookrunners, alongside Al Rayan Investment, Bank ABC, Dubai Islamic Bank, GIB Capital, KFH Capital, JP Morgan, Sharjah Islamic Bank, Standard Chartered Bank, and Warba Bank.

The debt market tap comes after a busy run of lending across its member states: The firm extended a USD 15 mn five-year line of finance to Azerbaijan’s Turan Bank to boost its SME lending and private-sector funding earlier this month, it said in a press release. This came one month after it closed a USD 145 mn, three-year shariah-compliant syndicated facility for Turk Eximbank, it said in a separate statement.

Ratings tailwind: The sukuk comes on the heels of S&P upgrading ICD’s long-term issuer rating to A from A- earlier this month, citing improved asset quality and stronger business growth, according to a press release. The agency highlighted a sharp drop in nonperforming assets to 5% in 2024 from a peak of 24% in 2020.

IN OTHER DEBT NEWS-

#1- First Avenuefor Real Estate Development secured a SAR 315 mn shariah-compliant loan from Bank AlJazira, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul on Monday. The six-year financing will go toward the acquisition and development of First Avenue’s real estate projects. The loan is guaranteed by promissory notes, a mortgage on the project land, and the assignment of the project’s proceeds to the bank.

ICYMI- The real estate developer renewed and increased its shariah-compliant loan with Alinma Bank to SAR 320 mn back in June for similar purposes. It launched the SAR 710 mn Aljada Industrial Real Estate Fund a month earlier, targeting the acquisition of a 3.6 mn sqm plot in Al Dilam Governorate, south of Riyadh.

#2- Arab National Bank (ANB) will redeem its USD 750 mn resettable Tier 2 capital sukuk due in 2030 at face value later this month, it said in a Tadawul disclosure yesterday. About 3.8k fixed-rate sukuk — issued on 28 October 2020 with a 10-year maturity — will be redeemed at USD 200k apiece.

REMEMBER- ANB closed a USD 750 mn AT1 sustainable sukuk earlier this month, offered to both local and international investors under ANB’s AT1 capital sukuk program.

Jana Medical + Marble Design Factory appoint new CEOs

Jana Medical Company tapped Rassam Sultan Ayed Al Otaibi as its new CEO, effective yesterday, following the resignation of acting CEO Wessam Suheil Ghazawi, it said in a Ta dawul disclosure yesterday.

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Marble Design Factory appointed Nawaf bin Mohammed Al Kharashi as its new CEO, effective today, succeeding Mahmoud Ahmed Medany, who resigned, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul yesterday. Al Kharashi, who previously served as CEO during the company's last board term, currently serves as managing director and is a board member.

Tadawulcom Real Estate raises seed funding

STARTUP WATCH-

Homegrown digital real estate platform Tadawulcom Real Estate raised SAR 1.5 mn in a seed funding round led by an unnamed angel investor, according to a press release published on Monday.

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Where’s the money going? The platform — licensed by the Real Estate General Authority — will allocate the fresh funds to back its growth plans, along with ramping up product development and adding new tools to enhance user experience and increase operations nationally and regionally.

MANUFACTURING-

The government inked a cooperation agreement with China’s Hongjun New Energy to build a 6 GW heterojunction solar module factory in the Kingdom, according to a press release. The Chinese company, also known as SoleFior, was established in 2023 as a JV between Guangdong Fuhong Juneng, investment group Primavera Capital, and Chinese state enterprise Gree Group. The company has an operational portfolio of 8 GW of solar and 5 GW of modules at the Zhuhai base, as well as 4 GW of cells and 6 GW of modules at the Nantong base in the pipeline.

AVIATION-

The Kingdom inked agreements with 17 countries and regional organizations at the ICAO General Assembly in Montreal, covering air transport regulations, air safety standards, connectivity, and technical cooperation, according to a statement from the General Authority of Civil Aviation.

The breakdown: Bilateral air transport service agreements were signed with Antigua and Barbuda, South Africa, Finland, Latvia, and Saint Lucia. MoUs for technical and operational cooperation were established with the African Civil Aviation Commission, Brazil, Algeria, Belarus, Guinea, Sao Tome and Principe, Liberia, Georgia, Comoros, Seychelles, Lithuania, and China. Additionally, an MoU for technical cooperation was formalized between the Arab Civil Aviation Organization and the African Civil Aviation Commission.

RETAIL-

Alshaya to launch 100 stores at The Avenues Riyadh: Kuwait-based Alshaya Group signed a USD 150 mn agreement with Shomoul Holding, a subsidiary of Kuwaiti real estate developer Mabanee Company, to open 100 stores at The Avenues Riyadh, covering over 50k sqm of leasable space, according to a press release published yesterday.

REFRESHER- The Saudi arm of Mabanee signed two contracts worth a combined SAR 1.1 bn in February to develop towers in the second phase of The Avenues Riyadh megaproject.

Abercrombie & Fitch and Hollister go online in Saudi: Majid Al Futtaim expanded its partnership with US retailer Abercrombie & Fitch Co. by launching dedicated Abercrombie & Fitch and Hollister online stores in the Kingdom, with Qatar and other countries in the region to follow in the coming months, Gulf News reported yesterday. The agreement also gives Majid Al Futtaim rights to expand into Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon.

TECHNOLOGY-

Schneider Electric signed over 10 MoUs at its Innovation Summit in Riyadh last week, covering energy, infrastructure, digital transformation, real estate, food, and eMobility, it said in a press release (pdf).

The details: Schneider partnered with Power Center, Evostel, United Transformers Electric Company, Saudi Electro-Mechanical Technical and Refrigeration Air-Conditioning Appliances Company, Advanced Technical Services, and Subway Networks to collaborate on energy and industrial solutions. Meanwhile, Golden Energy Solutions joined Schneider’s BlokSeT Licensee Program to manufacture low-voltage equipment locally.

ALSO- The company partnered with Al Moammar Information Systems on data centers, Avalon Pharma on digitization, PCC Real Estate Developer and SNC Information and Communications Technology on smart buildings, Saudi Aquaculture Systems Factory and Panda Retail Company on food sector initiatives, and Solutions Valley, a subsidiary of Saudi Electricity Company, on EV charging infrastructure.

Record wave of megadeals pushes M&A past USD 1 tn

Global M&A activity rose past USD 1 tn in 3Q 2025, fueled by a record wave of megadeals, the Financial Times reports. A total of 14 acquisitions worth more than USD 10 bn were announced over the past few months, led by the USD 55 buyout of gaming giant Electronic Arts by a consortium of the PIF, US private equity firm Silver Lake, and Affinity Partners — the largest take-private this year. Other headline tie-ups included Union Pacific’s USD 85 bn takeover of Norfolk Southern, Anglo American’s USD 50 bn merger with Teck, and Palo Network’s USD 25 bn acquisition of CyberArk.

It’s been a busy year so far: There were 47 transactions worth more than USD 10 bn in the first nine months of the year — the most since London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) began tracking. Total global M&A activity climbed to nearly USD 3.1 tn YTD, a 35% increase y-o-y, putting 2025 on pace to be the strongest year for M&A since 2021.

Corporate restructuring is also fueling the flurry of activity: Kraft Heinz will split into two publicly traded companies in 2026 through a spin-off following challenges “to allocate capital effectively, prioritize initiatives and drive scale in our most promising areas” due to a complicated internal structure. At the same time, Keurig Dr Pepper is acquiring JDE Peet’s in an allcash USD 18.3 bn transaction and plans to spin off its USD 16 bn coffee arm into Global Coffee Company. Meanwhile, the company will focus on North America’s USD 300 bn refreshment market, anchored by Dr Pepper and Canada Dry.

Advisory firms say sentiment has shifted: M&A activity was subdued earlier in the year as trade tariffs, high borrowing costs, and regulatory uncertainty made boards and private equity firms cautious, with many large transactions delayed or shelved pending clearer guidance on antitrust reviews and macro conditions, according to Reuters. That cautiousness is easing as financing costs moderate, regulators signal a lighter touch, and executives refocus on growth initiatives, including megadeals and AI-driven acquisitions, EY Global Financial Services Strategy and Transactions Leader Andre Veissid told Reuters. Clients are “dusting off” old plans as they adjust to today’s market conditions and lighter antitrust scrutiny, a Skadden partner told the Financial Times.

Banks are cashing in: Fees have already reached USD 95.4 bn this year, the second-highest total on record. Bank of America could earn USD 130 mn if the Norfolk Southern transaction clears regulators, topping JP Morgan’s USD 123 mn payday from AbbVie’s 2019 acquisition of Allergan.

The upshot: “M&A is infectious,” said Latham & Watkin’s Charles Ruck, who advised on three of this summer’s largest acquisitions. “The market is rewarding companies for pursuing mergers again.” Co-chair of Wachtell Lipton’s M&A practice Jacob Kling put it more bluntly, “the M&A market is on fire at the moment — and I don’t think that’s changing anytime soon.”

ALSO FROM PLANET FINANCE-

Kuwait is returning to international debt markets for the first time in eight years with a bond sale that raised USD 11.25 bn, Bloomberg reports, citing a person it says is familiar with the matter. The three-part offering, with maturities of three, five, and 10 years, drew orders of more than USD 27.7 bn. The bonds are expected to be rated A+/AA by S&P and Fitch and were priced as much as 35 basis points tighter than initial guidance, according to the source.

Kuwait currently has only one outstanding international bond, a USD 4.5 bn note due in 2027, which trades at a yield of around 4.3%.

The bond sale follows the government’s approval of a long-delayed debt law earlier this year, ending years of political gridlock that blocked new borrowing. To cover budget deficits, the country has been tapping its General Reserve Fund and even selling assets to its Future Generations Fund, both overseen by the Kuwait Investment Authority.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

It’s a mixed start for Asia-Pacific markets this morning, even after US markets closed in the green overnight. Japan’s Nikkei and Topix are both down more than 1% in early trading, while South Korea’s Kospi is up. Markets in China and Hong Kong are closed today for China’s National Day. Futures suggest Wall Street will open in the red later today as the US government inches closer towards a shutdown.

TASI	11,503	+0.6% (YTD: -4.4%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,500	+0.8% (YTD: -0.6%)
NomuC	25,472	+0.2% (YTD: -19.1%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.75% repo	4.25% reverse repo
EGX30	36,670	+0.8% (YTD: +23.3%)
ADX	10,015	+0.2% (YTD: +6.3%)
DFM	5,840	-0.5% (YTD: +13.2%)
S&P 500	6,688	+0.4% (YTD: +13.7%)
FTSE 100	9,350	+0.5% (YTD: +14.4%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,530	+0.4% (YTD: +13.0%)
Brent crude	USD 67.02	+0.2%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.34	+1.2%
Gold	USD 3,892	+0.5%
BTC	USD 113,824	-0.5% (YTD: +21.6%)
Sukuk/bond market index	916.82	+0.1% (YTD: +1.6%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	150.69	+0.2% (YTD: +7.7%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	16.28	+1.0% (YTD: -6.2%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 0.6% yesterday on turnover of SAR 7.8 bn. The index is down 4.4% YTD.

In the green: Petro Rabigh (+6.7%), Saudi Kayan (+6.0%) and UCIC (+5.3%).

In the red: Alsaif Gallery (-3.5%), Mepco (-2.5%) and SRMG (-2.4%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 0.2% yesterday on turnover of SAR 44.2 mn. The index is down 19.1% YTD.

In the green: Balady (+20.0%), Fadeco (+8.5%) and Itmam (+8.2%).

In the red: Bena (-10.0%), Knowledge Tower (-6.3%) and Alrashid Industrial (-6.3%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical’s (Petro Rabigh) board of directors agreed to boost the company’s capital by 31.5% to SAR 22 bn via a private placement to founding shareholders Saudi Aramco and Sumitomo Chemical, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The company had announced the plan last month.

CALENDAR

25 September-19 December (Thursday - Friday) 2025 Saudi Toyota Championship.

28 September-1 January: Title deed registration for 54k properties in 77 neighborhoods across Riyadh, Makkah, and the Eastern Province.

29 September-1 October (Monday-Wednesday): Intersec Saudi Arabia, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Centre, Riyadh.

3Q 2025

The National Water Company is expected to award a construction contract for the Hail Region Water Networks project.

OCTOBER

1 October (Wednesday): Electronic salary transfer via the Musaned platform to include employers with two or more domestic workers.

1-3 October (Wednesday-Friday): Saudi Green Building Forum, Riyadh.

1-3 October (Wednesday-Friday): FIBO Arabia 2025, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center.

5 October-8 January 2026: Title deed registration for 3.2k properties in Al Yasmin district, Hail.

6-8 October (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Lifestyle Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

7-8 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global EV & Mobility Technology (GEMTECH) Forum, Riyadh.

12 October-15 January 2026: Title deed registration for 31.7k properties in 14 neighborhoods in the Eastern Province.

12 October-15 January 2026: Title deed regiswatch tration for about 157.3k properties in 78 neighborhoods across the Eastern Province.

15 October (Wednesday): Russian-Arab Summit.

16 October (Thursday): Aviation Impact Middle East, Hyatt Regency Riyadh Olaya .

17 October (Friday): Saudization for private healthcare roles enters its second phase.

19-20 October (Sunday-Monday): Saudi Rail International, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

21 October (Tuesday): The Visual Arts Commission will hold a public talk and a live performance in Paris through Asia NOW under its Art & Ideas program.

21-22 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Saudi Festival of Creativity (Athar), JAX District, Riyadh.

21-23 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Global Internet of Things Congress 2025 (GIoTC 2025), the Arena Venue, Riyadh.

22-23 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Private Capital Forum, Riyadh.

23-25 October (Thursday-Saturday): Zenos Wellness Summit, Bab Samhan Hotel, Riyadh.

24 October-1 November (Friday-Saturday): AlUla Wellness Festival.

26-27 October (Sunday-Monday): The Global Proptech Summit 2025, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah, Riyadh.

27-30 October (Monday-Thursday): Global Health Exhibition, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Center, Riyadh.

27-30 October (Monday-Thursday): Future Investment Initiative (FII9), King Abdulaziz International Conference Center (KAICC) and the Ritz-Carlton, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

NOVEMBER

2 November (Sunday): Naming ASICS Innovation Pitch competition’s six finalists.

3-9 November (Monday- Sunday): WTA Tour Finals, Riyadh.

5-8 November (Wednesday-Saturday): Binam Forum 2025, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

5-9 November (Wednesday-Sunday): Jewellery Salon Expo, Riyadh.

7-8 November (Sunday-Monday): The Visual Arts Commission will conclude its Art & Ideas program with a two-day symposium in Riyadh.

8-9 November (Saturday-Sunday): Del Monte Superleague Supercup, Jeddah.

9 November (Sunday): The deadline for applications for the second batch of the Standard Incentives for the Industrial sector deadline.

10-12 November (Monday-Wednesday): BioFach Saudi Arabia, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

11-13 November (Tuesday-Thursday): TouriseSummit, Riyadh.

16-17 November (Sunday-Monday): Jeddah Fintech Week 2025, Jeddah Hilton, Jeddah.

17-20 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre, Riyadh.

19-22 November (Wednesday-Saturday): PIF Saudi International Golf Championship, Riyadh Gold Club.

20 November (Thursday): Deadline for title deed registration for 14.6k properties across 21 neighborhoods in Qassim.

22 November (Saturday): The Ring IV, ANB arena, Riyadh.

23-26 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh.

23-27 November (Sunday-Thursday): Global Industry Summit by United Nations Industrial Development Organization, Riyadh.

24-26 November (Monday-Wednesday): The World Advanced Manufacturing & Logistics Saudi Expo, Riyadh.

24-26 November (Monday-Wednesday): Metropolis Madinah Conference for civilizational capitals, King Salman International Convention Centre (KSICC), Al Madinah.

25-26 November (Thursday-Saturday): The Global Sustainability Expo, The Arena Riyadh Venue, Ghirnatah.

25-29 November (Thursday-Monday): General Aviation Airshow 2025 - Sand & Fun, Riyadh.

27 November (Saturday): Deadline for title deed registration for 8.7k properties in Jeddah’s Al Sheraa and Al Amwaj neighborhoods.

27-30 November (Thursday-Sunday): World Rally Championship Saudi Arabia 2025, Jeddah.

28-30 November (Friday-Sunday): UIM F1H2O World Championship, Jeddah.

30 November (Sunday): Zatca 21st E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

30 November-1 December (Sunday-Monday): FII Priority Asia Summit, Tokyo.

DECEMBER

1-3 December (Monday-Wednesday): Industrial Transformation Saudi Arabia, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

1-4 December (Monday-Thursday): International Conference on Nuclear and Radiological Emergencies, Riyadh.

1-4 December (Monday-Thursday): 61st ISOCARP World Planning Congress, Riyadh.

7-9 December (Sunday-Tuesday): CoMotion Global 2025, Riyadh.

8-9 December (Monday-Tuesday): Digital Acceleration and Transformation Expo (DATE), JW Marriott hotel, Riyadh.

8-9 December (Monday-Tuesday): Climate Action and Renewable Energy (CARE), JW Marriott hotel, Riyadh.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

11 December (Thursday): Deadline for title deed registration for 214.2k properties across Riyadh and the Eastern Province.

25 December (Thursday): Deadline for title deed registration for 64.4k properties across neighborhoods in Madinah, Makkah, Riyadh, and the Eastern Province.

25-27 December (Saturday-Monday): The Fortune Global Forum 2025, Riyadh.

31 December (Wednesday): Zatca 22nd E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

31 December (Wednesday): Cancellation of Fines and Exemption of Financial Penalties Initiative by the Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority (Zatca) deadline.

December: Made in Saudi exhibition, Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center, Riyadh

2026

JANUARY

1 January (Thursday): Electronic salary transfer via the Musaned platform becomes mandatory for all domestic workers in the Kingdom.

13-15 January (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Minerals Forum, King Abdul Aziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

20 January (Tuesday): SuperReturn Saudi Arabia, Hotel Fairmont, Riyadh.

18-21 January (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Hospital Design and Build Expo, Riyadh.

26-27 (Monday-Tuesday): GPRC Summit, Riyadh.

26-28 (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Franchise Expo (SFE), Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre, Riyadh.

26-28 (Monday-Wednesday): Real Estate Future Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh.

26-28 (Monday-Wednesday): IFAT Saudi Arabia, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center, Riyadh,

27-28 (Tuesday-Wednesday): SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh.

28 (Wednesday): Data Center Nation Riyadh, Riyadh.

28-30 (Wednesday-Friday): Jeddah International Travel and Tourism Exhibition (JTTX), Jeddah.

FEBRUARY

2-4 (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Media Forum, Riyadh.

2-4 (Monday-Wednesday): Women Leaders Summit and Awards KSA, Riyadh.

2-13 (Monday-Friday): 2026 Asian Road Cycling Championship and Paralympic Cycling, Qassim.

3-4 (Tuesday-Wednesday): RLC Global Forum Annual Meeting, Riyadh.

5-7 February (Thursday-Saturday): LIV Golf 2026 season opener, Riyadh Golf Club, Riyadh.

8-12 February (Sunday-Thursday): World Defense Show, Riyadh.

9-14 February (Monday-Saturday): Asian Racing Conference, Crowne Plaza Riyadh RDC Hotel & Convention Centre, Riyadh.

11 (Wednesday) Digital Transformation Summit Saudi Arabia (DTS), Riyadh.

11-14 (Wednesday-Saturday): JeddaDerm, Jeddah.

13-14 February (Friday-Saturday): Jeddah E-Prix 2026, Jeddah.

MARCH

21 March (Saturday): Fanatics Flag Football Classic, Kingdom Arena, Riyadh.

31 March (Tuesday): Zatca’s 23rd E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

APRIL

6 April (Monday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

6-7 April (Monday-Tuesday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

12-15 April (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

13-16 April (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21 April (Tuesday): GC Summit Saudi Arabia 2026, Saudi Arabia.

27-29 April (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

MAY

3-5 May (Sunday-Tuesday): Sports Investment Forum (SIF), Riyadh.

OCTOBER

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia.
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh.
The Intervision international music competition will take place in Saudi Arabia.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh.
The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea.
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

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