Fed cuts rates for the first time this year, resuming widely anticipated easing cycle

The US Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut in nine months yesterday, cutting rates by 25 bps overnight and bringing the target range down to 4-4.25%, according to a statement. This Fed had held rates steady since December, when it also cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point. The move is expected to trigger similar reductions from other central banks.

The decision had been widely priced in by markets, with the backdrop of a softening US labor market and lower consumption offsetting concerns around tariff-induced inflation. This is in addition to political pressures from US President Donald Trump, who has been pushing for a rate cut for months, threatening to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and trying to fire Governor Lisa Cook.

The move still falls short of the steep cuts Trump has been calling for. Newly appointed Fed governor — and Trump advisor — Stephen Miran also cast the only dissenting vote, favoring a larger 50 bps reduction.

The outlook is unclear, but it’s likely we’ll see more rate cuts this year: Powell made it clear in remarks yesterday that the Fed was in a “meeting-by-meeting” situation, as it struggles to keep inflation in check while keeping an eye on employment. The move yesterday was one of “risk management,” he said. Policymakers updated their projections to forecast three more rate cuts this year in each of the upcoming meetings — one more than previously forecast — and another cut in 2026 and in 2027.

Market reax: Stock markets briefly rose on the news before closing the day mixed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closing marginally lower. Treasury yields also softened, while the USD strengthened against a basket of major trading partners’ currencies.

The move is good news for the Gulf, which does not count inflation as a concern, Fahd Al Tarzi, CEO of CI Capital KSA, told EnterpriseAM. Junaid Ansari, head of investment strategy and research at Kamco Invest, agreed that the rate cut should be “generally positive” for markets by easing yields and equity risk premiums.

Equities stand to benefit the most from lower rates, Muhammad Al Laithy, head of financial reporting at Argaam Investments said, as capital shifts away from debt into riskier assets. Saudi Arabia, Dubai and Abu Dhabi all trade at attractive valuations compared with emerging-market peers. With the Saudi market at its lowest point in over 18 months, Al Laithy argued that investors have a compelling entry point to build positions in solid companies at depressed valuations.

Saudi Arabia, which is on a major borrowing drive to fund its budget deficit and expansionary 2030 projects, will also benefit the most from lower borrowing costs at a time when its debt is at an all-time high, Al Tarzi said. The move, he added, would ease budget pressures on listed companies and provide a boost to the local debt market, where Saudi has been pushing aggressively with corporate sukuk issuance. He also highlighted relief for Saudi consumers, who have been stretched by borrowing, saying lower rates would support households across credit segments including auto loans, BNPL financing and credit cards.

The boost to equity markets could also spur IPO activity + issuance: Ansari pointed to a strong pipeline of IPOs in the region, suggesting that improving valuations could encourage issuers currently on the sidelines to return to market. On the fixed income side, GCC bond sales remain elevated, with total issuance reaching USD 22.2 bn so far this month — already the third-highest monthly total this year.

More is needed: Al Laithy noted that with rates still above 4%, liquidity remains capped, restricting both equity capital markets and debt issuance across Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt. In his view, only a move toward 3.5-3.75% would signal a genuine policy shift, creating space for stronger refinancing and dealmaking.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets traded mixed following the Fed’s move, Japan’s Nikkei opening to a fresh record, South Korea’s Kospi gaining 0.4%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s CSI 300 both in the red. US stocks are set to open in the green, with futures rising following a volatile day of trading that saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq close in the red.

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 1.3% yesterday on turnover of SAR 4.6 bn. The index is down 11.5% YTD.

In the green: NGC (+10.0%), Maadaniyah (+8.9%) and Solutions (+5.4%).

In the red: Saudi Cable (-2.5%), Leejam Sports (-1.3%) and Rasan (-1.3%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 0.4% yesterday on turnover of SAR 31.6 mn. The index is down 20.2% YTD.

In the green: Enma Alrawabi (+11.4%), Wajd Life (+8.4%) and Molan (+7.5%).

In the red: Apico (-8.8%), NBM (-7.1%) and Sure (-6.4%).