Good morning. Opec+’s thirst for production hikes has not been quenched yet, it seems, as the group agreed to yet another hike for October. While the hike is relatively lower than the previous accelerated cut reversals, the group is saying it will continue monthly hikes through September 2026.
ALSO- An EGP 900 bn project on Egypt’s Red Sea is on the way, courtesy of Citystars and Emaar Misr. The project will be modeled after Emaar’s flagship Marassi North Coast and is expected to be the first of many big projects to be announced.
WEATHER- The Kingdom is bracing for rain until the end of the week, with heavy rains are expected over Makkah, Asir, and Al Baha, along with moderate to light showers over Riyadh, Jazan, and Najran. Riyadh will witness temperatures peak at 42°C before cooling down to 32°C today, Jeddah’s mercury will go as high as 38°C and as low as 31°C, and Makkah will see a 40°C high and 33°C low.
NEWS TRIGGERS-
The General Authority for Statistics is set to roll out final GDP figures for 2Q 2025 today, according to the authority’s calendar. Flash estimates showed real GDP grew 3.9% y-o-y in 2Q, supported by a strong momentum in the non-oil sector.
ALSO- The Industrial Production Index (IPI) data for July 2025 is scheduled to come out tomorrow. The IPI rose 7.9% y-o-y in June, fueled by broad-based growth in manufacturing, mining and quarrying, utilities, and waste management activities. We expect the annual growth to continue in July.
HAPPENING TOMORROW-
Index Saudi Arabia kicks off tomorrow at the Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center. The three-day expo brings together more than 400 exhibitors from over 40 countries and attracts around 17k visitors. The event showcases products across nine sectors, including furniture, furnishings, textiles, flooring, décor, kitchens, bathrooms, art, and fit-out services.
The International Beauty Expo kicks off tomorrow at the Jeddah Superdome. The three-day event brings together exhibitors and buyers from across the global beauty and personal care industry, showcasing the latest in cosmetics, skincare, fragrances, hair care, nail care, spa and salon equipment, and packaging solutions.
The Seredo Real Estate Development and Ownership Exhibition kicks off tomorrow at the Jeddah Superdome. The three-day event builds on the success of last year’s edition, which hosted over 55 participants from real estate, investment, and banking. This year’s exhibition brings together developers, investors, and key stakeholders to showcase projects and explore potential investments.
PSAs-
#1- The subscription window for the September round of the government-issued retail sukuk program Sah closes tomorrow at 3pm, the National Debt Management Center said on X. The offering, which kicked off yesterday, offers a 4.88% annual return, with investment limits set at a minimum of SAR 1k and a maximum of SAR 200k per investor.
#2- Title deed registration for 214.2k properties across Riyadh and the Eastern Province is now open until 11 December, the Real Estate Registry (RER) said on X yesterday. The registrations cover over 157.7k plots in Riyadh and 56.4k in the Eastern Province. Property owners can register online through the RER website or by visiting a service center.
#3- REMINDER- Businesses subject to withholding tax must file their August returns by Wednesday, 10 September via Zatca’s website, it said in a statement yesterday. Late submissions will face a 1% penalty for every 30 days of delay.
WATCH THIS SPACE-
Internet connectivity in the Middle East and parts of Asia was disrupted on Sunday by undersea cable cuts in the Red Sea, the Associated Press reported yesterday. Internet monitor NetBlocks traced the outages to the SMW4 and IMEWE cable systems near Jeddah, affecting users in India and Pakistan. Meanwhile, Microsoft warned of slower speeds for its Mideast users on its status website. Telecom providers in the UAE and Pakistan have also noted disruptions, while Saudi authorities have not yet commented.
The cause of the cuts is unclear, with concern that the cables could have been targeted by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who have denied attacking the lines in the past. The cuts could also have been caused accidentally by ship anchors. Repairs could take weeks, as specialized crews are needed to locate and fix the lines.
MARKET WATCH-
Non-Gulf investors accounted for 41% of all Saudi stock purchases during the final week of August, marking one of the highest weekly ratios on record, Bloomberg reports, citing Tadawul data. Foreigners also made up 35% of total purchases for the month, indicating foreigners are now finding the market increasingly attractive with most companies undervalued.
IN CONTEXT- TASI shed 2.1% in August to close the month at 10.7k points, down some 11% YTD. The drop is largely due to a dip in global oil prices — which are down nearly 9% since the start of the year.
DATA POINT-
Air carrier complaints jumped 38.8% y-o-y to 1.97k in July 2025, according to our calculations based on data shared by the General Authority of Civil Aviation (Gaca). Airport complaints also increased 105% y-o-y to 162 during the month. Flagship airline Saudia recorded the fewest complaints per 100k passengers in July, receiving 31 complaints, followed by flynas with 36 and flyadeal with 40.
For international airports serving over 6 mn passengers annually, King Khaled International Airport and King Abdulaziz International Airport held the lowest complaint rate at one per 100k passengers. Meanwhile, the complaint rate for Prince Mohamed International Airport and King Fahad International Airport doubled y-o-y to reach two per 100k passengers.
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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-
The global press zeroed in on US President Donald Trump’s “last warning” to Hamas, as he continued to push the group to accept the terms of his ceasefire and hostage release agreement. “The Israelis have accepted my Terms … It is time for Hamas to accept as well,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff last week delivered the proposal to Hamas — the proposal includes releasing all 48 remaining Israeli hostages in exchange for ending Israel’s war on Gaza.. (Bloomberg | Reuters | Axios | AFP | BBC)
ON THE TARIFFS FRONT- US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that the Trump administration may have to return as much as USD 1 tn in collected tariffs if the Supreme Court strikes down the president’s reciprocal tariffs, writes CNBC. During an interview, Bessent said “we would have to give a refund on about half the tariffs, which would be terrible for the Treasury,” though he expressed confidence that the court would ultimately side with the administration.
AND IN SPORTS NEWS- Carlos Alcaraz reclaimed the world No. 1 spot yesterday after defeating Jannik Sinner in the US Open final. Alcaraz’s 6-2, 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 victory handed him his second US Open and sixth Grand Slam title and a 10-5 edge in his head-to-head rivalry with Sinner. (Associated Press | BBC | New York Times)
ALSO WORTH READING THIS MORNING-
- Are music-backed bonds the next hot thing on Wall Street? The so-called “Bowie bonds” — debt instruments backed by music royalties — are hitting the mainstream, with investors like Blackstone and Carlyle helping raise a record USD 4.4 bn in 2025. (Financial Times)
- The death of the career ladder? As AI eats into entry-level jobs, the classic American tale of climbing from mailroom to CEO could soon be a thing of the past. Research shows a 50% drop in new roles for fresh grads at major tech firms, and with org charts flattening and AI systems working 24/7, early career development is under threat. Experts suggest the “bottom rung” may disappear entirely — but optimists say a flatter structure could just uplevel everyone. (CNBC)


