THIS MORNING: The IMF sees less room to absorb another oil shock

Good morning, all. The long money keeps committing to Saudi Arabia even as the war presses on the current quarter, and Humain signing its first foreign anchor customer is the sharpest example. Humain used Nvidia’s Berlin conference to bring in AI cloud provider Nebius for up to 50 MW at Oxagon. That capacity is small compared to the 3 GW Humain wants by 2030, but the first foreign demand behind the buildout is what turns the plan into something a financier will back.

The pressure on the quarter can be seen in the earnings, where it sits on the cost and logistics line. East Pipes’ earnings halved as raw-material shipments were rerouted and left waiting at port; Electrical Industries watched project deliveries slip and shipping and ins. costs climb, and Tadweeer carried the same freight burden through the first half. Demand held up across most of them. The trouble was getting the inputs in and the output out.

On the military side, the war is pushing the Kingdom to build up its own arsenal. Satellite images of the Al Duwadimi complex suggest Saudi is scaling up toward longer-range missiles, possibly with Chinese help, that could eventually reach Iran. In the meantime, defense pacts with Pakistan and Turkey are firming up, even as the Houthis keep hitting airports and oil sites.

Barclays sticks to Saudi timeline

Barclays is still pressing ahead with plans to open a regional quarters in Saudi Arabia before the end of this year, despite recent Houthi escalations, Asia-Pacific CEO Jaideep Khanna told Bloomberg. The London-based bank is seeking a financial-services license to build a full platform in the Kingdom, a step up from its lighter current footprint, and is expanding in Turkey as well, keeping its “constructive” view on the region.

The comments hold the line CEO CS Venkatakrishnan set in April, and land days after Riyadh postponed the Future Investment Initiative (FII) to 2027. Venkatakrishnan had been due to speak, alongside the chief executives of JPMorgan and HSBC.

REMEMBER- Barclays announced its return to the Kingdom last year after more than a decade away, with plans for a regional headquarters in Riyadh’s King Abdullah Financial District; it has a provisional license from the Capital Market Authority and has tapped Bahri Chairman Mohammed Al Sarhan to help lead the expansion.

It joins a wave of international financial firms setting up under the RHQ Program: Goldman Sachs was the first major international bank to win an RHQ license, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan have since followed, and Deutsche Bank received its license last July.

Two more off the calendar

Riyadh is pushing two more events into next year. The sixth UN World Data Forum and the second Saudi Statistics Forum, originally scheduled for 9-12 November, have been postponed to 2027, the UN Statistics Division and Gastat said in a joint announcement (pdf) and a Gastat statement. New dates have yet to be announced. Organizers said the delay is meant to allow broader international participation by speakers, experts, and partners, and that preparatory events under the Road to Riyadh program will go ahead as planned.

ICYMI- The move follows last week’s postponement of the Future Investment Initiative to 2027, while Intersec Saudi Arabia, Saudi Build, and Saudi Elenex have also been pushed to October and November 2027. The postponements come as Saudi Arabia has faced repeated Houthi missile and drone attacks in recent weeks, including strikes on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport that have led to civilian casualties and prompted several foreign carriers to suspend flights.

Five days to vacate

Saudi’s overhauled enforcement regime kicks in this Thursday. Of the 54 articles, the one creditors and landlords will feel most sets a clock on evictions: a property must be handed to the enforcement applicant within five working days of notice, with any extension capped at 60 days, according to an Uqn statement.

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The big story abroad

Polar LNG under Russian influence? After resigning in September, former Polar LNG CEO Joel Riddle accused US-sanctioned Russian company Novatek of secretly funding the firm. Polar LNG is a USD 25 bn US gas export venture reportedly linked to an investor with connections to the Trump family. The company is repurposing a gas terminal in Alaska partially built by Novatek. Polar LNG saw mass resignations among its leadership, including Riddle, due to concerns about sanctions risk.

Musk, Kyiv split on Starlink usage: Ukraine announced that both the Starlink satellite network and its defense-oriented version, Starshield, are back at full capacity following a disruption that strained relations with Washington. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said Ukraine breached Starlink's terms of service by deploying the network to conduct offensive drone attacks, and that the workaround that allowed this was shut down last week.

Unrest rages across Europe: Protests have continued across several European countries, including France, Albania, Italy, Spain, and Portugal, despite tightened security and large police deployments. The protests have been attributed to social and economic grievances, including over pensions, housing, education, and corruption.