Saudi Arabia is widening its defense network and leaning on diplomacy to defend its infrastructure

Every military commitment Saudi Arabia has secured in the past week is focused on keeping its infrastructure standing. This leaves Riyadh better defended at home but no closer to assembling a force to fight the Houthis in Yemen. What Saudi’s partners have agreed to supply limits what the country can bring to that fight.

REFRESHER- French President Emmanuel Macron said last week that France would send troops, radar systems, and defense equipment to protect Yanbu rather than engage in any conflict. The UK had said earlier that it would dispatch a single Royal Air Force Voyager to provide defensive air-to-air refueling. The foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey also met on Friday to arrange an urgent meeting of their military chiefs of staff under the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement.

The peg for all three is what the Houthis hit on Thursday. The militant group said it had struck Aramco facilities in Yanbu and a “sensitive target” in Riyadh, and Saudi forces said they intercepted six ballistic missiles, with the Yemeni coalition adding that it had thwarted attacks on Taif and Yanbu. Two more ballistic missiles and two drones were intercepted heading for Riyadh and Khamis Mushait on Saturday.

What the Mecca pact actually delivers

Activating the agreements with Turkey and Pakistan does not necessarily mean these countries would enter a ground war in Yemen, Political Science Professor Ismail Turki tells EnterpriseAM, though Riyadh could still seek their support. Activation could involve air defense, intelligence, military technology, infrastructure protection, training, and maritime security. That list is close to what Paris and London have put on the table.

Riyadh can protect its territory through air defense and intelligence, back Yemeni forces opposed to the Houthis, and apply measured military pressure, Turki tells us. An escalation into a large-scale operation involving ground intervention would not resolve the situation, he says, given a Yemeni geographic and military environment that can’t be tackled with missiles and drones alone, and would turn the conflict from a “limited security confrontation into a war of attrition.”

“I would not expect Riyadh to rush back into the kind of open-ended campaign it fought after 2015. The more probable approach is calibrated escalation, supporting Yemeni partners, and targeting immediate threats,” Director of the Political Studies Program at the Yemen and Gulf Center for Studies Mustafa Antar tells us.

That’s the opening the Houthis are relying on: “The Houthis are not simply seeking more territory; they are trying to change the balance of leverage,” Antar said. Their advance toward Mokha and Bab Al Mandab targets Saudi Red Sea shipping, with the continued attacks on the Kingdom’s territory increasing the cost of confronting them. The objective is to enter any future political or security arrangement from a stronger position.

The diplomatic track is running in parallel

A US-Houthi negotiation channel emerged through Omani mediation during the crisis, Turki says, which he reads as evidence that indirect communication survives the escalation. Washington doesn’t necessarily want to become a direct party in this war, however. It can support a future negotiation process while using its influence to pressure regional powers. Beijing has asked Tehran to rein in the Houthis after an appeal from Riyadh, and Pakistan has made the same request, warning that further escalation could push Islamabad to defend the Kingdom.

A settlement remains an economic priority in all scenarios: Saudi Arabia started rerouting oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz and has resumed partial flows through the East-West pipeline, but a prolonged conflict could drive up ins. and transportation costs, increase pressure on investment, and weigh on tourism, aviation, ports, logistics, and trade, Turki told us. “The longer the conflict lasts, the higher the cost of security, even if Saudi Arabia can maintain a large portion of its export flows.”

What’s next?

Saudi Arabia is expected to tackle this issue on three fronts, with diplomacy to lead the way. “The most important track over the medium term is returning to politics,” Turki said, and stressed that keeping the door open to negotiations will safeguard everyone’s security. The Kingdom is also expected to exercise moderated retaliation, while reshaping its approach to regional security by creating a safety net through its defense pact, alongside Egyptian, GCC, and international cooperation.