BTC’s rally shows signs of running out of steam

BTC's had a rough couple of weeks, and analysts are split on whether a recent rally is here to stay. Recent weeks had seen it rise by 30% to around USD 82.8k, before later dropping back down below the 80k mark. The rally had legs from Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaling he could support leaving interest rates unchanged this month, plus a weaker USD — but a hot jobs report reversed both almost overnight.

BTC dropped 2.8% to USD 79.2k the moment the jobs data landed, as the USD strengthened and two-year Treasury yields climbed, according to Bloomberg. US payrolls rose 162k in August — well above forecasts — reviving wagers on a September rate hike, which would tighten liquidity and dent risk appetite for an asset like BTC in one move. The Fed's next decision, at its 15-16 September meeting, is now the thing the whole market is waiting on.

For now, the bulls still have room to work with. BTC stays in bullish territory as long as it holds above roughly USD 71.8k — the midpoint of last month's rally, per Reuters' technical read. But the case for caution is building too. “A clear rebound doesn't settle the debate, it arms the hawks,” Sygnum Bank's Fabian Dori told Bloomberg.

The quality of the demand behind the rally is the bigger question mark. US-listed BTC ETFs booked two days of sizable outflows in the past week, Bloomberg reported separately. The seven-day average of the Coinbase premium — which tracks whether US buyers are paying above the global price — has stayed negative for more than four months, and even last month's rally wasn't enough to flip it positive. Translation: the American buying that usually powers BTC's bigger runs hasn't shown up for this one.

MEANWHILE- A USD 320 mn incident at a Bitcoin sidechain is the wildcard. Self-described white-hat hackers exploited a software bug in Liquid Network's Elements code to withdraw roughly 4k of the 4.2k BTC held in its Liquid Federation wallet, Liquid said in an X post. Blockstream, which built the sidechain, says no keys were compromised, and unlike most crypto hacks, the funds haven't moved since, and the parties involved are negotiating an on-chain return once the bug is patched. That's a different animal from Bybit's USD 1.5 bn theft last year, which triggered a selloff that dropped BTC by as much as 28.2% — but a market that's already jumpy on ETF demand doesn't need another crypto-security headline right now, whatever the eventual outcome.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets surged in early trading, with South Korea’s Kospi up 1.4% and Japan’s Nikkei up 0.5%. Meanwhile, Wall Street equities were broadly in the red, weighed down by the Middle East conflict and escalating US-Canada trade tensions.

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 0.4% yesterday on turnover of SAR 3.4 bn. The index is up 5.1% YTD.

In the green: Banan Real Estate (+8.0%), Armah Sports (+7.8%), and Al Etihad Cooperative (+5.2%).

In the red: Saudi Ground Services (-6.9%), Knowledge Economic City (-4.6%), and Yanbu National Petroleum (-4.1%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC remained flat yesterday on turnover of SAR 13.6 mn. The index is down 6.7% YTD.

In the green: Al Fakhera (+30.0%), Albattal Factory (+21.8%), and Hawyia Auctions (+7.3%).

In the red: Advance International (-12.6%), Arabian Plastic Industrial (-9.9%), and Osool and Bakheet (-9.8%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Saudi Fisheries Company will vote on a proposed 500% capital increase through a rights issue at an extraordinary general meeting on 27 September, according to a Tadawul disclosure. The SAR 334.93 mn increase would lift the company’s capital to SAR 401.92 mn from SAR 66.99 mn through the issuance of 33.49 mn new ordinary shares to support its strategic plans and future operations.

The National Shipping Company (Bahri) approved a special interim dividend of SAR 1.38 bn for 1H 2026, with shareholders receiving SAR 1.50 per share, equivalent to 15% of nominal value, according to a Tadawul filing. The dividend will be paid on 27 September, with eligibility set for shareholders registered at the end of trading this Thursday, 10 September.