THIS MORNING: Satorp refinery repairs stretch to 2027

Good morning, friends. The US and Iran have confirmed the peace agreement is now in effect, meaning we can all collectively breathe a sigh of relief — with eyes firmly set on the Strait of Hormuz for signs that supply chain disruptions might ease soon.

The big story today: Saudi Arabia and Turkey want to lay a rail link through Jordan and Syria within three to four years, carrying goods, oil, gas, and passengers from the Kingdom all the way to Europe. The UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman could eventually plug in. The catch, of course, is the map: a route that runs through postwar Syria is a route that depends on postwar Syria holding together.

A more sobering story: the ICAEW now sees the GCC contracting 2.4% this year, with Saudi and Oman the only two members still growing. Three months ago it was forecasting a near-flat 0.2% dip.

AND- From the tech department: We sat down with AI startup Velents' co-founder Abdulaziz Almuhaydib for this week's My Morning Routine.

Happening today

It’s day two of Masqa Investments’ (MSGA) Nomu IPO subscription, with bookbuilding scheduled to run through Wednesday, 24 June. The Riyadh-based real estate developer is offering a 10% stake to qualified investors at SAR 6 per share, targeting SAR 66.7 mn and implying a post-listing market cap of SAR 667 mn. MSGA’s IPO comes as larger Saudi issuers — including Mutlaq Al Ghowairi Contracting (SAR 3 bn) and Arabian Dyar (SAR 16 bn) — shelved their listings on geopolitical jitters.

Ninja wants a piece of Delivery Hero

Quick-commerce firm Ninja is inching closer to its Delivery Hero acquisition, reportedly working with Saudi and international investment banks to acquire some of Delivery Hero’s assets in the Kingdom and the UAE, the Arabic press reports, citing an anonymous source. Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, UBS, and Riyad Capital are advising on the transaction, according to the source.

REMEMBER- The local unicorn was reportedly weighing a bid for parts of Delivery Hero’s Middle East portfolio, including its Saudi unit HungerStation and a joint acquisition of Dubai-based Talabat. The firm is also expected to prioritize HungerStation first due to simpler integration and fewer regulatory hurdles. Meanwhile, it’s also gearing up for a potential IPO that could raise USD 1 bn by late 2026 or early 2027.

Satorp’s road to recovery

TotalEnergies’ Satorp refinery — hit by three drone strikes in April — won’t be fully repaired until early 2027, CEO Patrick Pouyané told French lawmakers. The refinery is currently running at 70% of its 460k bbl / d capacity.

The diplomatic calendar and the refining calendar are on very different clocks: Pouyané said that many of the region’s damaged plants, used to ship significant volumes of diesel and jet fuel to Europe, won’t come back online quickly regardless of what happens with the Strait of Hormuz following the US-Iran framework.

We could be in for a sharp oil glut next year as Gulf producers start to revive shuttered fields, according to the International Energy Agency’s monthly report. The agency said flows would resume gradually this year, before surging by 8 mn bbl / d to 110 mn bbl / d in 2027, outpacing the expected 2 mn bbl / d rise in global demand.

A surplus is not a bad thing: A supply overhang would offer markets a chance to rebuild depleted inventories and strategic reserves after stocks have eroded this year due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, with OECD stocks now at their lowest in decades.

Still, the physical recovery of flows through Hormuz will also be slow in coming. Around 500 ships are waiting to exit the Gulf, and mine-clearing could take 40-50 days. Meanwhile, Aramco CEO Amin Nasser told analysts last month that even an immediate reopening would leave the oil market needing months to rebalance, adding that if the strait had stayed shut much longer, normalization wouldn’t have come until 2027.

Data point

71 mn sqm — that’s the total area of land under development or in circulation in Riyadh, the Municipalities and Housing Ministry said on X. That breaks down to 29 mn sqm of completed developments, 21 mn sqm still under development, and 20 mn sqm of previously vacant white land that has entered the market — a result of the White Land Tax introduced last year. Tax revenues from the law have backed the funding of 27 residential projects in the region, the ministry said.

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The big story abroad

Your regularly scheduled update on the US-Iran war agreement is the story dominating front pages this morning: US and Iranian officials have confirmed they’ve already digitally signed the agreement, the contents of which were made public earlier yesterday (if you need a refresher: there’s a USD 300 bn package for Iran, an agreement to release frozen Iranian funds and assets and lift all sanctions, and lift the blockade).

The agreement is already in effect, US and Iranian officials have confirmed, meaning all eyes are now turning to the Strait of Hormuz for signs that the blockade has officially ended. (But remember, as we’ve reported: The lifting of the Strait will not be straightforward and won’t happen overnight; it will need to be measured and gradual.)

ALSO- Apple products are getting pricier: Apple CEO Tim Cook confirmed in a Wall Street Journal interview that price increases are “unavoidable” across its product lineup — the culprit being AI-driven demand for data centers, which has forced consumer electronics into fierce competition for dwindling memory chip supplies.