Riyadh Air is going to the US

Good morning, folks. We lead today’s issue with a dive into when can we see oil flows actually resume through the Strait of Hormuz — apart from the time it will take to clear mines, analysts expect vessel bunching, port congestion, and pressure on hinterland logistics before networks can rebalance.

Another step for Riyadh Air

Riyadh Air just cleared US airspace: The US Transportation Department granted the PIF-owned carrier the right to run scheduled and charter service between the Kingdom and the US. It’s another box ticked for an airline that flew its first commercial London Heathrow flight only last week.

The ramp is real: Riyadh Air expects eight aircraft in service by the end of July and plans to reach 22 cities by March 2027, CEO Tony Douglas said last week. The orderbook runs to as many as 72 Boeing 787s, 60 Airbus A321neos, and 50 A350s — enough for Douglas to call it “the biggest global aviation startup in modern history.”

Al Modawat readies up for Tadawul

Al Modawat Specialized Medical Co. tapped Suhail Partners to provide counsel on its transition to Tadawul from parallel market Nomu, according to a bourse disclosure.

REMEMBER- Suhail Partners is joining a busy team. Deloitte & Touche is providing financial due diligence services, while Estidamah Capital was tapped as financial advisor. Al Modawat has been preparing a move to the main market since June last year, after listing on Nomu in 2024 with a 20% stake.

Data point

SAR 31.9 bn — that’s how much Saudi Arabia spent on communications and information technology in 2025, Saudi Gazette reports, citing a Digital Government Authority report. That breaks down to around SAR 31.7 bn across more than 6.1k government contracts. Cloud computing expenditure rose 42% y-o-y, while spending on AI and emerging technologies was up 20%. SMEs captured 23% of government digital spending, with contract values reaching SAR 9.2 bn.

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The big story abroad

The details of the US-Iran agreement are out, headlined by a USD 300 bn development fund designed to jumpstart investment into Iran. The private investment vehicle — aimed to incentivize both sides to work on a final deal — is already halfway committed, sources tell Reuters, and will focus on energy, logistics, manufacturing, and transport. Under the terms, the US will also release all frozen Iranian funds and assets and lift all sanctions.

The Hormuz outlook: Upon signing the framework agreement this Friday, the US will lift its naval blockade and — alongside Iran — ensure traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reach pre-war level within 30 days.

The Nuclear equation: While Tehran reiterated that it will never produce nuclear weapons, the fate of enriched material and other mutually agreed nuclear issues will be tackled in the final agreement.

What’s next? Once the initial framework is inked, the two sides will have 60 days to reach a final agreement. Bloomberg has the complete text of the 14-point draft agreement here.

And in business news: SpaceX extended its rally during yesterday’s session, dethroning Amazon to become the fifth most valuable company in the world. The company saw its valuation reach almost USD 3 tn during trading, before ending the session at USD 2.7 tn.

Eyes on the Fed: The US Federal Reserve concludes its first policy meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh today. While markets expect the central bank to hold rates steady, Warsh’s debut post-meeting presser is what we’ll be watching closely for his first substantive comment on inflation and employment.