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The biggest IPO in history is days away, and a handful of Saudi investors are sitting on a windfall. Elon Musk’s SpaceX is set to list on Nasdaq this month, in an offering that could raise a record USD 75 bn, more than double the USD 29 bn Aramco raised back in 2019.
The sheer size is staggering: The company plans to sell 555.6 mn shares priced at USD 135 apiece, Bloomberg reports, citing unnamed sources. The pricing would value the rocket-and-satellite-and-AI company at up to USD 1.75 tn and make Musk the world’s first t’naire.
Why it matters
The market is putting a hard number on stakes that Saudi investors have held privately for years.
The most visible winner is Kingdom Holding (KHC). The listed investment vehicle chaired by b’naire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal told the Arabic press last week that it and Alwaleed’s private office together own 0.63% of SpaceX, a stake worth about USD 10.6 bn at the high-end USD 1.75 tn valuation. KHC had invested in xAI during a Series C round in December 2024.
The market has already run with it: KHC has gone on a tear, with the stock closing yesterday at SAR 15.37 — a fresh high — it is up 93% YTD. That values the company at roughly SAR 57 bn, even though its 1Q net income fell 38% y-o-y to SAR 269 mn.
BUT- Mind the accounting: The company benefits significantly from its AI and tech ventures, but the mechanism matters, and its investment in SpaceX remains an unrealized gain, Business Analysis Director at Argaam Investments Youssef Al Youssef tells us. “The unrealized gain or loss from the change in fair value won't show up directly in the income statement; it goes straight into other comprehensive income, into shareholders' equity,” Al Youssef explains.
Who else is in the boat? The Public Investment Fund’s AI champion Humain holds a direct stake in SpaceX, a company spokesperson confirmed to EnterpriseAM. Humain had put USD 3 bn into xAI's Series E round shortly before xAI merged into SpaceX.
The company declined to comment on the size or the expected valuation of the stake, but we can still make an educated guess. Humain’s stake could be roughly 0.24%, Bloomberg estimated earlier. That’s a third of what we know KHC and Alwaleed hold, which “could be reasonable given Humain’s size and the PIF's participation,” Al Youssef tells us. At this size, the stake would be worth some USD 4 bn at the USD 1.75 tn market cap, according to our calculations.
KHC and Humain are not the whole story: Other Saudi investors and VC funds may hold smaller, undisclosed slices, Al Youssef adds, with more likely to pile into the sector post-listing.
What’s next?
The investor roadshow runs next week, with pricing expected 11 June and trading kicking off 12 June. SpaceX hasn't confirmed the dates publicly, however, and they could shift with the SEC review or market conditions.
Watch the liquidity: Al Youssef flags a genuine risk for Tadawul, as an offering this size needs filling. Foreign funds may trim GCC positions to freeup capital for SpaceX, denting local market liquidity. Turnover is already looking soft, standing at some SAR 4.4 bn in yesterday’s session. That’s possibly a sign of capital being parked ahead of the listing, he notes.
The flipside is a longer-term re-rating. “An offering of this size and force, on a major exchange like the US market, will give a real push to tech, innovation, and fintech, not just in the Saudi market but across the Gulf. I think it re-rates these markets and how investors view the gains already realized in the sector, and it could create more demand for tech investment in the period ahead.” Al Youssef tells us.
