THIS MORNING: >Saudi economy least affected in Gulf by US-Iran war fallout -IMF

Good morning, wonderful people. Eyes will be on the sky tonight for Dhul Hijjah’s crescent sighting, which will determine when pilgrims — over 850k of whom have already arrived in the Kingdom — will head to Mount Arafat. We can’t wait for the festivities to begin (and of course, the long break).

In today’s issue: Inflation cooled in April as costs of living proved resilient to war pressures, and one more Tadawul IPO is on the way from contractor Mutlaq Al Ghowairi.

Watch this space

ECONOMY — Saudi Arabia is proving to be the least affected country in the Gulf by the fallout from the US-Iran war, IMF Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department Jihad Azour told AlArabiya during a visit to the region for consultations with leadership and central banks last week.

The East-West pipeline and the Kingdom’s fiscal resilience absorbed the war-induced economic shocks, Azour said. The pipeline helped Saudi Arabia reroute more than 7 mn bbl / d at its maximum capacity reached in March, with some 2 mn bbl / d headed to refineries and 5 mn bbl / d for exports.

A boon for our oil revenues: The New York Times estimates Saudi Arabia has gained about USD 9.2 bn in additional revenues amid global energy price hikes, from 28 Feb until 8 May. This comes despite a y-o-y drop in the numbers of barrels exported by 152 mn. Meanwhile, neighboring producers like Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar are having a harder time dealing with the strait’s closure.

REMEMBER- The fund projected Saudi’s growth to average 3.1% in 2026, 1.4 percentage points lower than the initial outlook in January, the fund said in its World Economic Outlook report last month. However, growth is expected to pick up pace again to 4.5% in 2027.

Inflation also slowed down in April for the Kingdom to 1.7% y-o-y, Azour noted. We have more on that in today’s big story, below.

Sports

PIF becomes official World Cup supporter: The Public Investment Fund (PIF) has been named as the FIFA World Cup 2026 tournament supporter across North America and Asia, according to a press release. The partnership will see PIF alongside portfolio companies Savvy Games Group and Qiddiya City roll out fan engagement initiatives and tournament experiences.

The sports strategy: The commitment to the sports sector “lies within the tourism, leisure and entertainment ecosystem in PIF’s recently announced 2026-2030 strategy,” the statement said. The fund has recently been cleaning house and reorganizing its sports priorities, pulling the plug on LIV Golf, reviewing Newcastle’s plan, and selling a majority stake in Al Hilal Club Company.

And in other sports news: Japan’s Gamba Osaka bested Al Nassr 1-0 in the Asian Champions League Two final, preventing Cristiano Ronaldo from taking home the trophy, Reuters reports. The upset victory means that the Don is yet to clinch a major trophy since joining the club in 2023.

Data point

USD 12 bn — that’s the value of the Public Investment Fund’s US equity holdings in 1Q 2026, down from USD 12.95 bn in 4Q 2025, which marked their lowest level in five years, Argaam reported, citing US Securities and Exchange Commission data. The fund maintained positions in Lucid Group, Electronic Arts, Uber, and Clarivate, while fully exiting medical technology manufacturer Allurion Technologies.

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The big story abroad

The business pages are focusing on the outcomes of the US-China summit in Beijing, which proved anti-climactic after failing to secure any commitments. It appears that the world’s two largest economies have returned to the familiar status quo that existed before President Donald Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” in 2025 — a shift some are already labeling a victory for China. Ultimately, the lack of a Trump-driven paradigm shift means a precarious trade standoff remains.

More drama from the Fed: Two Trump-nominated Federal Reserve officials have criticized the Fed board’s decision to temporarily keep Jerome Powell in the position of chair until Kevin Warsh is officially sworn in. Fed board members Stephen Miran and Michelle Bowman slammed the “unlimited timeframe” of the temporary designation.

Meanwhile, on Wall Street: Although the Big Tech and AI equity rally seems as strong as ever, there is a very big asterisk, investors tell Bloomberg. Driven by optimism surrounding the AI boom, many investors are selling off government bonds, which is pushing yields higher. This spike in yields — combined with inflation risks and concentrated stock gains — could soon make corporate borrowing more expensive for tech companies while simultaneously making bonds a more attractive alternative to equities.

Speaking of which… could AI-related job cuts target entry-level jobs? Upwards of 40% of CEOs intend to slash junior roles and shift their workforce composition toward mid and senior-level roles, according to a global survey by Oliver Wyman. This appears to stem from AI agents’ ability to take on functions traditionally associated with junior positions, namely writing code and evaluating sales leads.