THIS MORNING: Did Saudi retaliate against Iran?

Good morning. We have a brisk issue for you this morning as the double whammy of US-Iran uncertainty and Hajj preparations is still putting a dampener on the Kingdom’s business scene.

BUT FIRST- The US media is claiming Saudi didn’t entirely sit out the war, after all. Unnamed Western and Iranian officials told Reuters the Saudi Air Force launched a number of retaliatory strikes on Iranian targets, estimated to have taken place sometime in late March.

Iranian strikes had targeted US military bases as well as civilian and energy infrastructure, not just in Saudi but in all GCC states as well as Jordan. The Saudi retaliation was reportedly followed by diplomatic efforts that led to an “understanding” between Riyadh and Tehran to de-escalate, shortly before the ceasefire on 7 April.

Watch this space

IPO — The machine is warming up: Saudi Arabia’s IPO pipeline is showing signs of life again, with a wave of companies across sectors reportedly pushing ahead with listing plans as Tadawul outperforms regional peers amid the ongoing regional conflict. This activity could help revive Riyadh’s equity market after its slowest start to listings in years.

Banks line up for mandates: Olayan-backed Health Water Bottling is reportedly working with Lazard on a potential IPO, while Etihad Salam Telecom is seeking junior banking advisers for its float, unnamed sources told Bloomberg. Meanwhile, PIF-backed ArcelorMittal Tubular Products Jubail has hired JPMorgan Chase and HSBC Holdings, while Alkhorayef Petroleum is preparing to seek regulatory approval.

ALSO- Ejada Systems is reportedly renewing its IPO approval, and quick-commerce firm Ninja has selected banks for a potential USD 1 bn listing.

Driving a limited recovery: The Kingdom’s IPO pipeline is being buoyed by higher oil prices, which are lifting exchange heavyweights like Saudi Aramco, and by relatively lower geopolitical exposure versus with neighbors, while UAE listings lag as Dubai and Abu Dhabi trail Tadawul since the conflict began.

LOGISTICS — SAR launches tender for GCC rail: Saudi Arabia Railways (SAR) has launched a tender for design consultancy services for its portion of the GCC railway project, MEED reports. The services include the design of a 672-km rail corridor extending from Khafji in the Eastern Province to Al Batha on the UAE border, with bids due by 30 June.

REFRESHER: The GCC railway project is a 2.1k km railway that aims to link the six GCC member states. Numerous delays have long stalled the project, which was projected to cost some USD 15 bn back in 2023.

CABINET WATCH — The capital is getting a new university: The cabinet gave the green light to setting up a new public higher education institution, named “the Kingdom University,” in Riyadh at its weekly meeting held yesterday. No further details were disclosed.

Data point

SAR 67.7 bn — that is the value of dividends paid to the PIF in 2025 from its equity investments in 29 listed companies, according to an analysis by Aleqtisadia based on Tadawul data. The figure represents a 25% decline compared to 2024, driven by lower dividends from Aramco and exceptional dividends provided by STC.

The breakdown: Aramco remained the largest contributor, accounting for SAR 51.3 bn, followed by STC with SAR 6.8 bn, Saudi National Bank with SAR 4.8 bn, and Saudi Energy with SAR 2.2 bn.

Sports

Al Hilal vs. Al Nassr ends in a draw: Yesterday’s showdown between Al Hilal and rival Al Nassr ended in a draw despite a strong start by Al Nassr, whose Mohamed Simakan scored in the first half. An own goal during overtime handed Al Hilal a point they needed to avoid a loss. If Al Nassr had held on for the win, they likely would have mathematically secured the Saudi Pro League title.

Up next: Al Nassr has a final chance to secure the win when it faces Damac on 21 May. Al Hilal, currently in second place, still has two matches to go — it will face Neom Sports Club on Saturday and Al Feiha on 21 May.

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The big story abroad

Today’s papers are buzzing with business updates. US inflation hit a three-year high in April, coming in at 3.8% thanks to the war-triggered rise in energy prices.

Wall Street is unsettled by these figures. Investors are wagering on continued inflation growth, expecting average annual inflation to level out at 2.7% over the next five years. Investors are hedging against this risk by trading standard US treasuries alongside treasury inflation-protected securities.

But US stock markets don’t seem rattled by the (seemingly endless) conflict. The S&P 500 has been hitting fresh high after fresh high, most recently crossing the 7.4k mark for the very first time at Monday’s close, even as oil prices stayed elevated. Some suggest the US market remains resilient against the Hormuz blockade due to oil independence and strong tech earnings as key drivers of investor confidence.

Markets will be closely watching the Trump-Xi summit. US President Donald Trump is kicking off his visit to Beijing today, during which he will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss trade relations and the ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz.

GameStop’s eBay takeover is a no go: Online marketplace eBay turned down GameStop’s USD 56 bn acquisition bid, expressing concerns over financing and leverage, the video game retailer’s governance, and operational risks of the combined entity. GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen has been courting GCC sovereign wealth funds to bridge the equity gap for the transaction.

In the AI world, Anthropic is in early negotiations to raise over USD 30 bn in new funding, paving the way for its largest funding round yet. The round is expected to wrap up by the end of May, one source told Bloomberg.

JPMorgan Chase has pushed further into the crypto world, submitting paperwork to set up its second tokenized money market fund. The entity plans to issue digital tokens on the ETH blockchain to represent shares in its portfolio of treasuries and repurchase agreements.