THIS MORNING: Diplomatic travel barriers set to fall between Riyadh and Ankara

Good morning, all. The return to normalcy is the theme for today’s issue. The non-oil private sector showed partial recovery in April after contracting for the first time in over 5 years in March and regional travel is showing signs of a rebound.

But that doesn’t mean we haven’t felt the consequences of the war. Our fiscal deficit hit SAR 125.7 bn (c. 35.5 bn) during the first quarter of the year — the figure is dangerously close to the USD 44 bn the government has penciled in for the entire year — thanks to a dip in oil revenues and an uptick in government spending.

^^ We’ll have more on our 1Q performance in tomorrow’s issue.

PSAs

Gov’t extends mining applications deadline: Investors now have until 31 July to submit prequalification applications for mining exploration licenses across eight sites, the Industry and Minerals Resources Ministry posted on X. The licenses target gold, silver, copper and associated minerals, and iron.

The decision includes sites in Riyadh, Hail, and Aseer, as well as Ashhab Al Dhiab, Jabal Muniya, Al Khashabi, Wadi Khiyam, Jabal Makhit, Al Khushaimiyah, Dhalan Sammar Al Har, and Jabal Idsas.

^^ Investors can access technical data and competition documents via The Taadeen platform.

Businesses subject to withholding tax must file their April tax returns by Sunday, 10 May via the Zakat, Tax, and Customs Authority’s (Zatca) website, the authority said in a statement. Firms face a 1% penalty for every 30 days of delay.

Watch this space

DIPLOMACY — No-visa travel between Saudi and Turkey? Saudi Arabia and Turkey are expected to finalize a no-visa travel agreement for holders of special and diplomatic passports today when the Turkey-Saudi Coordination Council meets, Reuters reports, citing a Turkish diplomatic source.

Why it matters: Ankara is targeting USD 10 bn in bilateral trade with the Kingdom in the near term. Easing travel for special passport holders — a group that includes senior officials and some business leaders — removes a key administrative hurdle for firms pursuing cross-border agreements and government-linked projects.

We’ve been cozying up with Ankara: Ties have continued to warm following Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to Riyadh in February, during which the two sides discussed moving forward with a Turkey-GCC freetrade agreement and exploring joint investments.

OIL WATCH — Aramco has reduced the price of its flagship Arab Light crude by USD 4 per barrel for June, setting the new cost at a USD 15.50 premium — the second highest on record — above local benchmarks, according to a price list seen by Bloomberg. Official pricing might not reflect the ultimate cost paid by refiners, as these prices apply to Ras Tanura loadings, industry insiders said. Shipments from Yanbu could involve extra fees.

M&A Watch — FCC commissioner raises alarm bells over PIF-backed Warner Bros merger: US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) official Anna Gomez has identified Paramount’s PIF-backed acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery as a potential national security risk, as it would constitute foreign investment in US broadcasting, Reuters reports.

ICYMI: Paramount submitted a request to the regulator last week to bypass statutory limits on foreign ownership of US broadcasting assets, as foreign entities would own slightly less than 50% of the merged entity. The merger is backed by some USD 24 bn in commitments from the Public Investment Fund and other GCC sovereign wealth funds.

INFRASTRUCTURE — Taif Road extension 65% complete: The Royal Commission for Riyadh City said that the extension of Taif Road — part of the first phase of a SAR 13 bn main and ring road development program — is 65% complete. The 9.7 km extension runs from the Laban neighborhood to Qiddiya, and will have the capacity to handle up to 440k vehicles daily.

Riyadh to Mumbai. Abu Dhabi to Singapore. Dubai to London. Cairo to Shenzhen.

The most important business stories in MENA aren’t happening inside MENA anymore — they’re happening at the edges, where regional capital meets global ambition.

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The big story abroad

The wavering ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict is in the headlines this morning. Despite Iran's strikes on the UAE, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has maintained that the truce still holds. President Donald Trump announced a “short” pause on US efforts to escort ships out of the Strait of Hormuz “to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed.” Echoing sentiments of deescalation, Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that the offensive stage of Washington’s campaign is over.

Could we bid farewell to quarterly earnings? The Securities and Exchange Commission isconsidering dropping the mandatory requirement of quarterly reporting, opting to keep disclosures a semi-annual occasion. The move by the US regulator coincides with Trump’s call for deregulation for Wall Street.

Meanwhile, in the world of AI: Meta is developing a personalized AI assistant designed to streamline daily tasks for its global user base. Sources with knowledge of the matter compared the initiative to services offered by OpenClaw, which enables users to deploy autonomous agents capable of executing complex tasks independently.

But is AI a bubble waiting to pop? JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink say no. They have argued, in separate comments, that Wall Street’s massive investments in AI tech and infrastructure are justified. Fink argues that AI spending is the “opposite” of a bubble, saying that “we have supply shortages; demand is growing much faster than anyone has anticipated.”

ALSO- Supply chain woes hit PIF-backed Lucid Group hard last quarter, causing the EV maker to suspend its annual forecast after a massive revenue miss. A February supply chain hiccup stalled Gravity SUV deliveries, significantly impacting 1Q performance.