Good morning, all. We lead today’s issue with the news that the PIF is unfazed by the regional war, with plans to press ahead with international investment plans despite all the uncertainty.

Also in today’s issue: Another gigaproject scrapped, non-oil exports rose in January, and we inked a defense cooperation framework with Ukraine that sets the stage for future investments in the sector.

President Trump made an appearance at the Future Investment Initiative event in Miami, touting US military successes in his keynote speech and controversially hinting at future intervention by declaring that "Cuba is next." The most important message, however, came from PIF governor Al Rumayyan who sought to reassure investors that the fund's global investments are not at risk. We have more on this in today's big story.

MEANWHILE- Attacks on Saudi ground are intensifying: Iran struck Prince Sultan Air Base, wounding 12 US troops and damaging an American E-3 Sentry — an airborne warning and control aircraft — on Friday, a US official told Reuters. The drone and missile strike is at least the second to hit the base during the war, after an earlier one damaged five refueling aircraft, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Iran is threatening any ground invasion would spark more intense retaliation. An official threatened to attack our Yanbu port, as well as the Fujairah oil complex in the UAE if foreign troops “step on to Iranian soil.”

WEATHER- The storm has passed, leaving a post-storm freshness for most of the Kingdom today. Only Tabuk and Al-Jawf in the North and Asir and Najran in the South will see some light residual rain.

  • Riyadh: 29°C high / 14°C low;
  • Jeddah: 31°C high / 20°C low;
  • Makkah: 32°C high / 19°C low;
  • Dammam: 28°C high / 15°C low.

PSAs

Businesses subject to excise tax must submit their January and February 2026 tax returns by Tuesday, 31 March via the Zakat, Tax, and Customs Authority’s (Zatca) website. Late submissions will incur penalties ranging from 5% to 25% of the unpaid tax, in addition to a 5% monthly fine on any outstanding dues.

From the dept. of reschedules

Riyadh’s Capital Markets Forum has been pushed a year to March 2027, after it was scheduled this April.

It’s not the only major financial event to get axed due to the war: the Dubai Financial Market delayed its own event to December. Dubai Future Finance Week has also been rescheduled to November, alongside other gatherings including TOKEN2049 Dubai, as flight disruptions weigh on attendance.

Watch this space

OIL — East-West pipeline hits full capacity: The Kingdom’s East-West pipeline, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, is now pumping at its full capacity of 7 mn bbl / d, a source familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. Exports via the Red Sea port of Yanbu have reached about 5 mn bbl / d, with an additional 700k-900k bbl of refined products, while 2 mn bbl feed domestic refineries.

Why it matters: This bypass is credited with preventing oil prices from hitting catastrophic highs, despite the loss of some 15 mn bbl / d that typically transits Hormuz. Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said earlier this month that the East-West pipeline was expected to reach its full capacity within days.

BUT- The hedge is under fresh scrutiny as Yemen’s Houthi forces enter the conflict, raising concerns of the Red Sea becoming a new maritime front. While no direct attacks on tankers have been confirmed, the group’s history of drone and missile threats in the Bab El Mandeb would be a major threat to the redirected supply chain.

TRANSPORT — Licensed transporters can temporarily move third party goods: The Transport General Authority (TGA) has granted licensed commercial transport players the green light to move goods for third parties until 25 September, it said in a statement. To qualify, vehicles must be registered for public transport, with all its operations recorded via the Logisti platform to maintain transparency and regulatory compliance.

Data point

USD 25 bn — That’s the potential bill for repairing energy infrastructure across the Gulf from the damage of the war, with engineering and construction taking the biggest share, followed by equipment and materials, according to Rystad Energy.

Qatar is in for the headline shock — but the UAE has also seen a fair amount of damage to some of its assets. Damage at Shah gas, Ruwais refinery, and Bab & Habshan fields is less severe but still material, placing them in the moderate disruption bracket where timelines hinge on how quickly operators can mobilize EPC contractors and secure replacement equipment.

What’s next: Operators are expected to prioritize restoring existing output over new builds, funneling work toward contractors and OEMs with regional track records and standing NOC relationships. Near-term activity will center on inspections, engineering, and site prep before shifting into equipment replacement as supply constraints ease.

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The big story abroad

Yemen’s Houthi militia has joined the war. The group fired ballistic missiles at Israel yesterday morning and vowed to keep up attacks as long as US-Israeli strikes on Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah continue. More strikes on Israel followed subsequently, consisting of cruise missiles and drones, the Houthis said.

The Strait of Hormuz saw some light traffic yesterday, with ship-tracking data from Bloomberg showing four vessels transiting the waterway to exit the Arabian Gulf.

Also, Iranian strikes caused “significant damage” to a smelter run by Emirates Global Aluminium — the region’s largest aluminum manufacturer. Several employees were injured at the Al Taweelah site in Abu Dhabi, and assessment of the damage is ongoing. The strike prompted a surge in aluminium prices, as the Middle East accounts for some 9% of global supply.

And to make things worse: Bahraini aluminium producer Aluminium Bahrain was also targeted byIran yesterday, resulting in two minor injuries.

AND- Some oil and gas execs believe that markets are underestimating the impact of the war on energy supply. “This is an attack not only against the Gulf, but it is an attack that is holding the world’s economy hostage,” Kuwait Petroleum Corporation CEO Sheikh Nawaf Al Sabah was quoted as saying at S&P Global’s annual CERAWeek energy conference. Executives warned that fuel shortages in Europe and Asia are imminent if hostilities do not cease, and predicted that oil prices will remain structurally high even after the conflict ends.

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