The GCC’s desalination network — the backbone of its water supply — is emerging as a frontline risk. Iran explicitly threatened “irreversible destruction” of Gulf water infrastructure if the US follows through on President Donald Trump’s threat to attack Iran’s electricity grid.

Historical conflicts in the Gulf have avoided targeting desalination plants, but this conflict could shape up to be different. The US and Iran are already trading blame: Iran announced a 7 March strike on a Qeshm Island desalination plant cut water to 30 villages, accusing the US of setting the precedent. A day later, Bahraini authorities reported that an Iranian drone damaged one of its own facilities.

Even near-misses are costly: Kuwait’s Doha West power and water plant caught fire from interceptor missile shrapnel.

The fallout of a major strike goes far beyond dry taps. Power plants require desalinated water for cooling, which means electricity supplies would take an immediate hit. The cascading effects would force hospitals to ration care, shutter businesses and industries, and introduce water rationing.

An exposed lifeline

The region’s reliance on these facilities is nearly absolute. Gulf countries depend on desalination for 42-90% of their total water consumption. Kuwait gets 90% of its water from these plants, while Saudi Arabia relies on them for about 70%. Across the region, some 100 mn people depend on this infrastructure for drinking water.

The proximity problem: People in the Gulf rely on just a few desalination plants for most of their water, making them highly strategic targets. These facilities are situated right on the coast across the Arabian Gulf from Iran, making them an easy target for an Iranian attack.

Desalination plants are “inherently fragile” in a region with virtually no alternative freshwater sources, Mohamed Abdel Hamid Daoud, a water resources advisor to the Abu Dhabi government, says. Because they require massive amounts of electricity to run, they are usually integrated with power plants, increasing the risk of disruption if energy infrastructure is targeted.

Direct hits aren’t the only threat. A large oil spill in the Gulf could force these plants to halt operations for weeks or months due to the difficulty of treating contaminated water.

If worse comes to worst

A one-week clock: If capacity is taken out, the impact would be quick and severe, wiping out water to major cities in a matter of days. Estimates are that most Gulf countries only have water reserves to last about a week.

Disabling major plants simultaneously would trigger an “unprecedented logistical crisis,” forcing an impossible reliance on bottled water and tanker trucks, David Michel of the Center for Strategic and International Studies told the Associated Press.

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