Good morning, ladies and gents. We’re rapidly approaching the final third of the holy month, and hoping it will be less stressful than what we’ve seen these past 10 days.

Things appear to have calmed down in our neck of the woods, with the pace of attacks slowing down significantly in the Gulf and few reports of Iranian missiles and drones targeting infrastructure.

Did Trump just give us reason to believe the end of the war is upon us? US President Donald Trump last night said that the war will end “very soon.” The messaging from the White House sent oil prices tumbling from nearly USD 120 / bbl during trading to below USD 90 / bbl.

Before you get your hopes up: Trump threatened bombing “at a much, much harder level” if Tehran disrupted oil supplies. The administration aims to keep down oil prices after they “went artificially up” following the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, Trump said.

Tehran isn’t backing down: Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said it would not allow “one liter of oil” to leave the region if US-Israeli strikes continue.

IN TODAY’S ISSUE- We’re still trying to figure out how the escalation will impact us, from reports of Aramco resorting to the spot market — and slowing down production? — to gauging how investment bankers see our IPO pipeline this year and how resilient our banking sector’s liquidity is in the face of the storm. Let’s dive in.

Happening tomorrow

Tadawul’s first new listing of 2026 is finally here: Saleh Abdulaziz Al Rashed willbegin trading on the main market on Wednesday. The construction materials and mining company is listing a 30% stake — good for some 5.58 mn shares.

It could be a while until we see another listing: Some investment bankers are advising clients to abandon the April-June listing window following the sharp regional escalation — unless they are already in the final stages of regulatory sign-off. We have more on this in today’s news well, below.

Watch this space

MARKET WATCH — Morgan Stanley gave Saudi Arabia the “overweight” upgrade, positioning the Kingdom as the region's premier defensive play amid rising Middle East uncertainty, according to a note to clients picked up by Investing.com. The bank’s strategists pointed to three core pillars behind the call: the economy’s positive exposure to higher energy prices, relatively light positioning by global emerging market funds, and the stability of the SAR’s USD peg.

Outperforming the neighborhood: Unlike its neighbors, Saudi equities historically outperform during periods of USD strength, the bank said — a trend currently supported by safe-haven flows. With valuations looking attractive, Morgan Stanley expects higher oil prices to translate directly into stronger economic activity and corporate earnings.

Regional view: This upgrade comes as Morgan Stanley shifts away from Egypt and the UAE, both now rated “equal weight” as they face higher risks from oil price shocks and geopolitical impacts on tourism and trade.

OIL — G7, IEA are readying the emergency oil taps as Brent surges. G7 finance ministers and the International Energy Agency (IEA) held an emergency meeting to discuss a massive, coordinated release of strategic oil reserves, though they decided to hold off for now while the group monitors the situation, Bloomberg quotes France’s Finance Minister Roland Lescure as saying.

This would come after a historic surge in crude prices — triggered by the conflict in the Gulf — propelled Brent 24% higher in Asia to trade at over USD 116 as of Monday before cooling down after Trump signaled that the war is nearing its end.

US officials are reportedly considering a release of up to 400 mn barrels, CNBC reports, nearly 30% of the total IEA reserve, in an effort to soothe markets. Analysts suggest the record price spike has left them little choice, despite previous reluctance under the Trump administration.

AUTOMOTIVE — Hormuz closure triggers car market paralysis: While used vehicles could become a primary market focus due to an expected decline in demand for premium brands in a high-price environment, as we reported last week, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has paralyzed a corridor for Japanese and South Korean used-vehicle exports, Nikkei Asia reports. The halt on re-exports through the UAE is expected to trigger a supply crunch and jack up prices across Middle Eastern and African markets.

TECH UPDATE — Will hyperscalers reroute Gulf data traffic eastward? The escalating war has reportedly prompted hyperscale cloud providers like Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Microsoft Azure to begin redirecting data center workloads from the UAE and Oman to India and Singapore, Economic Times reports, citing unnamed sources. To maintain the low latency required for critical traffic, especially banking, companies are reportedly securing immediate capacity in Mumbai, Chennai, Hyderabad, and Kochi.

REMEMBER- A series of drone strikes last week hit two AWS data centers in the UAE and one in Bahrain, causing structural damage.

Sports

A 95th-minute header from Mohamed Simakan snagged Al Nassr a 1-0 victory over Neom SC in the Saudi Pro League on Saturday. The W grants three points to Al Nassr, putting it at the top of the league table — two points ahead of Al Ahli Saudi FC and three clear of Al Hilal with nine games remaining.

This was the team’s first match without Cristiano Ronaldo, sidelined for several weeks with a hamstring injury sustained in last week’s W over Al Fayha. The injury sent him to Spain for treatment.

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The big story abroad

Apart from Trump’s comments on the regional war (which we dive into in the news well, above), a few stories are getting top billing.

#1- Anthropic is suing the Pentagon and other federal agencies for designating the AI firm a “supply chain risk” and attempting to cancel its federal contracts. The row began when Anthropic demanded assurances that its AI tools wouldn’t be leveraged by the Pentagon for mass domestic surveillance or autonomous weapons.

#2- Goldman Sachs has pitched a new hedge fund that allows it to assume a short or long position on corporate loans, the Financial Times reports. The financial product would allow clients to capitalize on further falls in loans made to software companies, after the sector saw its stocks tumble as AI developments threatened its business offerings.

#3- Washington agreed to resolve its longstanding prosecution of Turkey’s state-run Halkbank, which it had accused of aiding Iran in evading US-imposed sanctions.

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