The Kingdom’s IPO pipeline could be hitting a hard calendar wall. Some investment bankers are advising clients to abandon the April-June listing window following the sharp regional escalation — unless they are already in the final stages of regulatory sign-off.

While the TASI pared back some initial losses, a geopolitical markdown is now being baked into valuations, making 1H listings increasingly unattractive for those not desperate for liquidity.

“We are advising clients to temporarily pause IPO plans,” Chiro Ghosh, group head of research at Sico Capital, tells EnterpriseAM, adding that a formal de-escalation could help draw in more foreign demand for Saudi listings.

1H is starting to look like a write-off

The process of getting the regulatory green light alone can take months, senior investment banker Mustafa Fahim tells EnterpriseAM. He estimates a minimum eight-month lead time from start to listing, between fixing corporate governance, finalizing financials, and navigating multiple rounds of CMA Q&As. “If a company comes to us today, it’s going to take until the end of the year to potentially list,” he said.

For those who are ready to list, going public now comes with the risk of a valuation haircut, as the risk premium for Saudi equities has spiked. “The multiples have been reduced,” Fahim tells us. A company that might have listed at a 15x P/E multiple last year is now looking at 11-12x. “There is a significant valuation degradation taking place because of geopolitical risk and demand suppression,” Fahim says.

Nomu is also feeling the slowdown. Institutional investors are increasingly gravitating toward larger, main market material companies, leaving smaller listings with thinner coverage and weaker demand, Fahim tells us. That shift is making the parallel market a tougher venue for new issuers and complicating plans for companies hoping to graduate to TASI.

Who’s exposed (and who isn’t)?

Companies in hospitality, aviation, and consumer discretionary, as well as exporters whose trade routes depend on the Strait of Hormuz, are seen as particularly exposed to the current tensions, according to Ghosh.

Meanwhile, utilities and rent-seeking businesses with long-term contracts — such as energy infrastructure and engineering services — are being pitched as war-proof havens because their demand isn’t cyclical, Fahim tells us.

The pressure isn’t just geopolitical

Fahim also notes a top-down squeeze as the PIF scales back funding for gigaprojects like Neom and The Line. The reduction in stimulus is hitting earnings and dampening the “IPO exuberance” of previous years, as roughly 80% of the corporate ecosystem is tied to government spending.

It’s not all doom and gloom

Primary issuances raising fresh capital still have a good fighting chance. “These transactions can proceed despite short-term market volatility as long as management does not see a material threat to their operating plans or capital deployment,” Ghosh said. By contrast, offers for sale by existing shareholders tend to be more sensitive to market sentiment and investor risk appetite.

For expansion-heavy companies that can’t wait for the window to reopen, the sukuk market is a viable alternative, Fahim tells us.

MEANWHILE- Private equity remains unattractive, with multiples (7-8x) trailing even weak public market valuations, he said.

A September traffic jam in the making?

The pipeline is alive, but it’s forming a backlog. Companies are still coming in to prepare for IPOs, particularly those thinking beyond the current volatility, Fahim tells us. While the first half of 2026 looks significantly slower, he expects an “inversion” of last year’s trend, with momentum building toward 2H 2026 and 2027.

“I’m bullish on sectors like energy infrastructure, data centers, telecommunications, AI, and cybersecurity,” he said, adding that he expects “listings from the consumer sector as well, especially F&B companies and real estate developers.”

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