Aramco navigates export crisis with spot sales and reduced production

Aramco is maneuvering to keep crude moving: With its primary export arteries under fire, Saudi Aramco is trading its traditional long-term playbook for more agile spot-market tactics and output cuts in an effort to manage a crisis that is edging closer to the wellhead.

What happened

Aramco has reportedly offered some 4.6 mn barrels of crude across spot tenders in recent days, including Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, and Arab Heavy, as disruption traps cargoes and forces barrels onto alternative routes.

The trades: Some 2 mn barrels of Arab Extra Light were sold to Japan’s Idemitsu Kosan from a supertanker positioned near Taiwan at a USD 30-40 / bbl premium to official selling prices, Bloomberg reports, citing traders. Aramco also offered 2 mn barrels of Arab Heavy to load at Egypt’s Ain Sokhna between 10-30 March on an FOB basis for Asian buyers. In another tender, 650k barrels of Arab Light on a CFR basis were offered from Yanbu, with delivery timing tied to voyage duration.

The tenders signal a market under pressure. Aramco rarely sells crude through spot tenders and normally moves most barrels under long-term contracts, but disrupted export routes are forcing a change in play. The alternative routes are now in action, with the Kingdom pushing unusually large volumes west through the East-West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea.

The Red Sea system is already working overtime: Shipments from Saudi’s western terminals have surged to around 2.3 mn bbl / d so far this month — roughly 50% higher than any monthly flows from those terminals since late 2016.

While there’s a storage buffer…: The Kingdom holds the largest crude storage capacity compared to other Gulf states, equivalent to some 36 days of exports. If shipments are rerouted to Red Sea terminals — as is the case now — that buffer can stretch to around 65 days. But if shipments cannot move fast with volume, storage fills, and production slows.

…production has started slowing: The state giant has reportedly begun curtailing output at two oilfields, Reuters reports, citing two anonymous sources. It is not clear which fields or how much production is being curtailed, but the move fits the broader picture now unfolding across the Gulf oil trade — producers are trying to reroute some cargoes, but export capacity is still finite when the main shipping artery is constrained.

What this means: The whole chain is beginning to adjust in sequence. First come trade tools like spot tenders to reposition cargoes, then logistical shifts through alternative routes, and eventually production adjustment when export capacity — not production capacity — becomes the constraint. Disruptions are now pushing stress upstream — from tankers to the wellhead.