The human toll is rising fast amid relentless attacks across the region. Some 1.2k people were killed in Iran, along with more than 300 in Lebanon, some 17 people in the GCC, and over 10 in Israel.

… and the war claimed its first casualties in the Kingdom yesterday, when a projectile struck a residential area in Al Kharj belonging to a maintenance and cleaning company. Two residents of Indian and Bangladeshi nationalities were killed, while all 12 of the wounded are Bangladeshi residents. Air defenses neutralized waves of attacks yesterday, downing tens of drones north and east of Riyadh and targeting the Shaybah oil field.

MARKET WATCH — TASI continues to defy regional jitters to close in the green, closing up 2.14% yesterday on the back of strong gains for Aramco — the highest daily gains in four years. Yanbu National Petrochemical also jumped some 10%.

Aramco’s rise comes as crude surges above the USD 100 / bbl mark as the blockage tightens. Brent crude was going for USD 117 / bbl in early trading this morning. Hormuz is effectively closed to tankers, and the region is already feeling the brunt of this, with Iraq cutting its oil production by 60% due to export disruptions.

Regional supply chains are grappling with operational bottlenecks, with the UAE and Kuwait following in Iraq’s footsteps, while Saudi Arabia is diverting crude to the Red Sea to bypass the chokepoint. Last week alone, crude oil prices surged 30% — their biggest jump in six years.

The impact is being felt more acutely in import-reliant Asia and Europe, where jet fuel prices have hit an all-time high. Analysts at ING Groep NV warn that a full three-month disruption could send oil prices to record levels through 2Q, as shipowners demand full naval escorts.

Intensive Israeli attacks on oil depots and pipelines sent up clouds of dark smoke in Tehran’s skies yesterday and the day before, prompting an Iranian military spokesperson to threaten targeting oil fields all across the region — an apocalyptic scenario for oil prices.

DIPLOMACY — US orders KSA-based diplomats to depart: Employees of the US diplomatic mission in the Kingdom have been ordered to leave by the State Department, the New York Times reports, citing current and former US officials. This marks the first mandatory departure order in Saudi Arabia since the outbreak of hostilities late last month.

Washington shuttered its embassy in Saudi Arabia last week. The US mission stronglyurged Americans in the country to depart via commercial flights earlier this week.

REGULATION WATCH — The Capital Market Authority (CMA) has approved the establishment of simplified investment funds (SIFs), it said in a statement. The CMA will regulate the offerings of these funds to institutional clients and provide flexibility in determining the key provisions governing the contractual relationship between fund managers and unitholders.

SIFs allow fund managers and unitholders to set their own contractual terms, including liquidation rules, unit classes, and reporting policies, thereby cutting costs and boosting flexibility — they are modeled after limited partnership structures already in use globally. We dive deeper into the launch of SIFs in our previous coverage of the news — check it out here.

Data point

16 — that’s Saudi Arabia’s ranking among the world’s largest economies by purchasing power parity (PPP), with a GDP of about USD 2.9 tn, topping the Middle East, according to a Visual Capitalist report, citing International Monetary Fund data. Within the region, Egypt follows in 18th place globally with about USD 2.5 tn.

SOUND SMART- PPP adjusts GDP for differences in local price levels, which often makes lower-cost economies appear larger compared to advanced economies. By contrast, nominal GDP uses market exchange rates, meaning currency depreciation can lower a country’s nominal GDP ranking even if its real production remains stable.

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The big story abroad

Leading today’s global news cycle is the appointment of a new supreme leader in Iran. Mojtaba Khamenei — Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son — is taking on the role after the killing of his father, according to Iranian state media. The decision was taken by a group of clerics known as the Assembly of Experts. US President Donald Trump had previously characterized the appointment of the former supreme leader’s son as “unacceptable.”

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