Yes — Hormuz matters for way more than oil and gas: Roughly one-third of global fertilizer shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, linking Gulf production hubs with agricultural markets worldwide. With shipping through the passageway disrupted, fertilizer markets are already repricing the risk — raising the prospect of higher crop input costs and, eventually, food prices.

For import-dependent Gulf economies like ours, the question is not whether fertilizer markets move — but how quickly those shocks filter into the region’s food supply chain.

The fertilizer market is where the math starts for the food supply chain

Nitrogen fertilizers are the driver of modern agriculture. Methane is converted into ammonia and then upgraded into urea and other nitrogen products used to boost crop yields. Around half of global food production depends on synthetic nitrogen fertilizers, with 180 mn tons consumed globally each year.

The Gulf dominates the market, and nearly all of its output must move through Hormuz. Around 55-60 mn tons of urea are shipped by sea annually, with the Middle East accounting for some 40-50% of that volume. Iran exports roughly 5 mn tons, while Saudi Arabia contributes around 4-5 mn tons through producers like Sabic.

Energy shocks have amplified the pressure since natgas is the main input for nitrogen fertilizers. “Natural gas’ key role as a fertilizer input could hit agricultural producers, impacting food prices,” MENA Director at Horizon Engage Andrew G. Farrand tells EnterpriseAM. Qatar’s shutdown of the Ras Laffan LNG export facility sent reverberations through the industry. Qatar accounts for roughly 11% of global urea exports, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Alexis Maxwell. The country exports some 5.5-6 mn tons of urea and ammonia annually from its Qafco complex.

Market reax: Prices for granular urea jumped USD 60 per ton after the effective closure of the strait. In the US Gulf, spot for urea jumped USD 60-80 from last week, with traders warning that increases could follow if disruptions persist.

Supply chains were already tight before the conflict escalated: Urea markets turned bullish earlier after drone damage hit a Russian nitrogen plant, tightening availability. The US, despite producing domestically, still relies on imports from the Middle East that transit Hormuz.

Fertilizers may not even be the first agricultural bottleneck to bite: For some high-tech growers, specialty inputs such as pollinators and biological pest-control supplies can become harder to replace before fertilizer shortages become tight. That means prolonged disruption can start weighing on yields through the wider agricultural input chain — not just through urea prices alone.

Adding fuel to the fire, the EU announced that it will keep carbon levies on imported fertilizers under its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, rejecting calls to suspend the scheme despite concerns it could push up costs for farmers. “The decision is ill-timed, especially given the repercussions of the ongoing war, the rising energy prices, and the halt in urea production from Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia — the largest gas exporters. Therefore, prices will rise much higher than the ETS carbon price increase," Osama Henein, H2lligence founder and CEO, tells EnterpriseAM.

The impact

The hit to food supply in our region may not be immediate: Gulf growers carry several weeks — five to eight — of core inputs on hand, including fertilizers, helping cushion short disruptions, CEO of Pure Harvest Sky Kurtz tells EnterpriseAM.

But that does not mean it’s not building: “We would start to feel pain after a period of time if there were complete blockages and we couldn't get goods through the borders,” Kurtz tells us.

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