Good morning, all. We’re entering day six of a war that is showing no sign of slowing down, with more attacks targeting our energy infrastructure.

Aramco’s Ras Tanura was targeted by an attempted drone strike yesterday, the Defense Ministry said on X. The attack came two days after a previous drone strike temporarily shut down the refinery. Officials said there was no damage and no disruption to supplies. And in the early hours of the morning the ministry said it intercepted and destroyed drones east of Al Kharj.

AND SPEAKING OF OIL SUPPLIES- Hormuz traffic has all but ceased: Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped by over 95% following the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran war, Bloomberg reports, citing ship-tracking data it has compiled. The waterway is now rife with signal jamming and the disabling of position-reporting transponders.

^^ We dive into what the closure of Hormuz means for us at home as well as our backup plan to bypass the strait in the news well, below.

PLUS- The US government has issued a security alert for Americans in the Kingdom, urging them to consider departing if they believe they can do so safely. It has opened a crisis intake form which Americans in the KSA should fill out if they intend to leave.

Watch this space

DEBT — The Kingdom's debt markets are showing relative stability amid broader regional volatility: The five-year Credit Default Swaps (CDS) — the cost of ins. against a sovereign default — rose to a three-month high of 88.2 bps on 3 March, according to a report by Cbonds. The increase has been gradual compared with sharper moves seen in neighboring markets.

Borrowing costs have edged higher, but access to funding appears intact. Sovereign USD bond yields are around 5.4%, broadly in line with corporate yields at 5.37%, according to Cbonds. A key benchmark — the 13-year sovereign bond — is trading near 92% of par, with yields at approximately 5.85%, the data provider added.

Why it matters: Market pricing suggests investors continue to view the Kingdom as a comparatively lower-risk credit within the region, Cbonds noted, adding that with Brent crude above USD 80 per barrel, the Kingdom's fiscal position is seen as relatively supported despite ongoing geopolitical and global market uncertainty.

M&A WATCH — Arabia Ins., UCA call off merger: Arabia Ins. Cooperative Co. (AAIC) and United Cooperative Assurance (UCA) have cancelled negotiations for a potential merger, terminating an MoU previously signed to explore such a move, the companies said in separate disclosures to Tadawul (here and here). The companies didn’t provide a reason for the termination. The potential tie-up would have seen AICC absorb UCA via a capital hike and new share issuance.

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The big story abroad

US President Donald Trump is “actively considering” his administration’s role in Iran after the war, as the Senate turned down a resolution geared toward limiting his military operations in the Islamic Republic. It is not yet clear what this role will be upon the completion of the campaign, which is going “very well,” Trump said.

The war in the region has thrown a wrench in the policymaking of central banks, which must now reckon with resurgent inflation risks and soaring crude prices. Asian economies remain especially vulnerable, as most crude shipped via the Strait of Hormuz is Asia-bound.

MEANWHILE- China has penciled in growth of 4.5-5% for 2026, a step down from last year’s 5% and its most modest growth target in more than three decades.

AND- Apple announced its most affordable laptop ever — the MacBook Neo. The lightweight device is the company’s first low-cost offering in more than a decade, with prices starting at USD 599.

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