Good morning, all. It is day three of the quickly escalating regional war and the whole world is on high alert as the impact of what’s happening regionally echoes globally.

At home: We’re watching how global markets react during the first day of trading since the escalations began, how oil markets open, and what the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for global energy supplies.

From The Dept. of Minor Inconveniences

Our website is down: EnterpriseAM.com is one of the many, many services hosted on Amazon Web Services out of the UAE. The data center that hosts our site — and the apps and websites of dozens of other brands you know — was damaged after “objects hit” it, reportedly starting a fire and leading to a power outage. Our site has been down since mid-afternoon on Sunday and we're yet to hear from Amazon when we can expect it to be back up.

Opec+ tried to calm oil markets before they open today, agreeing to resume productionincreases next month with a modestly larger 206k bbl / d jump after pausing hikes in 1Q. Whether this proves symbolic or substantive will hinge on how the crisis evolves, and whether spare barrels successfully hit the water, which could prove difficult if the Hormuz Strait remains closed (more on that in today’s War Watch, below).

Flirting with triple-digits: Pundits are expecting a USD 5-10 / bbl increase in Brent crude price when markets open, with some saying it could reach USD 100 — a level unseen since Russia launched its offensive on Ukraine in 2022.

A supply flex (with limits): The Kingdom, alongside Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE, had already begun boosting exports from last month to multi-year highs, in anticipation of the attacks. The group’s spare capacity sits largely with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, totaling some 2.5 mn bbl / d.

WEATHER- Foggy and dusty weather is expected for parts of the Eastern Region, Aseer, and Makkah, while the rest of the Kingdom is set for clear skies.

  • Riyadh: 23°C high / 13°C low;
  • Jeddah: 28°C high / 19°C low;
  • Makkah: 28°C high / 18°C low;
  • Dammam: 26°C high / 15°C low.

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The big story abroad

The global front pages are all about the regional war and its impact on markets this morning. Between soaring oil prices and a strengthening USD, markets, currencies, and commodities are seeing massive fluctuations as investors look for safety amid all the uncertainty.

Worth reading: The Financial Times is out with a piece looking at what this all means for theglobal economy, while the Wall Street Journal dives into what a post-Khamenei Iran could look like.

From stocks to oil and logistics, we dive into what this all means for us at home in the news well, below.

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