Good morning, friends. We have a pretty busy morning as we hit the midpoint of this shortened workweek.

The budget deficit leads today’s issue after the Finance Ministry’s quarterly budget performance report showed that it widened to its highest level in five years.

WEATHER- Blowing dust and patchy showers: Active winds will raise dust across Makkah, Madinah, Tabuk, and Hail, extending into Qassim, Riyadh, and the Eastern Province. Meanwhile, light rain is expected over the western and southwestern highlands, with a chance of overnight and early morning fog in those areas, as well as parts of the Northern Borders and Al Jouf.

  • Riyadh: 29°C high / 13°C low;
  • Jeddah: 32°C high / 21°C low;
  • Makkah: 32°C high / 22°C low;
  • Dammam: 31°C high / 15°C low.

Watch this space

IPO — More companies are pressing ahead with listing plans: Telecom operator Etihad Salam is the latest name to enter Tadawul’s IPO pipeline, tapping BSF Capital to quarterback a potential main market float, Bloomberg reports, citing sources it says are in the know. Founded in 2005, Salam — formerly Integrated Telecom Company — runs a roughly 17k-km fiber network across the Kingdom and sits under the Mawarid Group umbrella, which also includes American Express KSA and OSN (via Panther Media Group) in its portfolio.

Two industrial names are also getting closer: Alkhorayef Petroleum reportedly tapped Citi, JPMorgan, and BSF Capital to quarterback its long-telegraphed IPO. The PIF-backed oil and gas services company is said to have been courting banks for a Tadawul listing since late last year. Steel pipe maker ArcelorMittal Jubail, another PIF-backed player, is reportedly working with Moelis and looking to tap more banks for its potential IPO, which was first announced last month.

Still eyeing a float: Local contractor Mutlaq AlGhowairi — which was said to be mulling a 2026IPO earlier last year — continues to explore a share sale that could value it at SAR 12-15 bn with no material update on timing or mandates, according to the business news service.

Why it matters: Issuers could be seeing a reopening window as Tadawul still lacks a marquee listing so far in 2026, and many recent IPOs are trading under their debut level. Whether investors agree and at what price will determine if this is a pipeline revival or just preparatory positioning.

ENERGY — Aramco tests appetite for Jafurah on the global condensate table: Aramco reportedly sold several ultra-light crude oil cargoes from the USD 100 bn Jafurah gas project to US majors and an Indian refiner ahead of its first export later this month, Reuters reports, citing trade sources. Pricing landed at premiums of USD 2-3 / bbl to Dubai on an FOB basis.

Asia-bound: The buyers include Chevron, Exxon, and Indian Oil Corporation (IOC). Two cargoes for Chevron will load later this month and in March, with Exxon and IOC also lifting next month, according to the newswire. Chevron’s first cargo is likely headed to its South Korean joint-venture refiner GS Caltex, with the second potentially bound to Thailand for Star Petroleum Refining, two sources told Reuters.

We got an early taste of the news: Reports surfaced earlier this month that Aramco started selling condensates from Jafurah, with Asian buyers due to receive shipments late this month or early next month. Production at the gas plant — the largest liquid-rich shale gas field in the Middle East — started late last year. The first phase came online with 450 mmcf/d of capacity, and the project is expected to reach full capacity at 2 bcf/d by 2030.

SOUND SMART- Shale-style gas fields like Jafurah produce condensate alongside gas — the liquid hydrocarbon that drops out of gas once pressure falls. Condensate isn’t technically crude, but it trades like it (priced against oil benchmarks) and runs through refineries. Condensate is the first monetizable output from Jafurah, long before the gas system fully ramps.

Data point

SAR 1.78 tn — that’s Saudi Arabia’s foreign reserve assets by the end of January, a six-year high, Aleqtisadiah reports, citing Saudi Central Bank data. This is the highest level since the pre-pandemic era, marking a significant recovery from the 2020 lows when the government withdrew SAR 200 bn over three months — SAR 150 bn of which was transferred to the PIF for global market plays.

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The big story abroad

The massive tech selloff is once again making waves in the global press. IBM is the latest victim of the AI scare, ending yesterday down 13.2% — its most drastic dip in 25 years — after Anthropic claimed its Claude Code offering could automate much of the work done by solutions currently provided by the tech giant.

The “sell first and ask questions later” trend was exacerbated in part by a bearish report from an obscure firm called Citrini Research, whose hypothetical scenario predicted a serious threat posed by AI advancement to food delivery services and credit card companies. Other disconcerting predictions made by the report included mass unemployment for white-collar workers.

Keeping investors spooked are comments made by Franklin Templeton Investments CEO Jenny Johnson, who told the Financial Times, “you really have to question if enterprise software companies can thrive” in light of new AI models.

CLOSER TO HOME- Stablecoin for Gaza? The Gaza Board of Peace is looking to roll out a stablecoin in Gaza, allowing Palestinians in the strip to transact digitally, the Financial Times reports, citing five people it says are familiar with the discussions. The proposed currency is expected to be pegged to the USD and will not become a new Palestinian currency, the sources said.

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