Good morning, everyone, and happy THURSDAY. Our big story today dives into the locker-room drama that saw Cristiano Ronaldo miss a league game reportedly in protest over what he views as uneven spending on the league’s Big Four. A weak transfer window for Al Nassr contrasted with aggressive Al Hilal transfers that culminated in a surprise move by Karim Benzema into the SPL leader, stoking the Don’s fears that his team’s lineup is falling behind.

Also on today’s issue: Foreign real estate owners could trigger a repricing of REITs, management consultancy Kearney thinks real assets tokenization is a USD 500 bn opportunity for the Gulf, and the morning routine of Rajhi Invest Group CEO Mohammed El Samman.

BUT FIRST- Riyadh is getting cozier with Ankara: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wrapped up his visit to Riyadh where he met Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, to tighten bonds between the two countries, state news agency SPA reports.

Their sit-down focused on expanding non-oil trade, as well as strengthening public- and private-sector engagement, and moving forward on a Turkey-GCC free trade deal. Plans to deepen cooperation in investment, hydrocarbons, climate, the digital economy, transport, tourism, health, education, and defense and security were also discussed.

At the Saudi-Turkey Investment Forum, Saudi Arabia and Turkey signed 10 agreements across multiple sectors, and Turkish Trade Minister Omer Bolat expressed hope that 2026 will be the year the Kingdom and Turkey hit their short-term trade target of USD 10 bn.

ICYMI- The Kingdom will establish two solar farms in Turkey at an investment cost of USD 2 bn, under an agreement inked during the visit. The two farms will add a combined 2 GW of capacity, powering over 2 mn households. A Turkish state-owned company will ink a multi-decade power-purchase agreement securing the energy generated.

WEATHER- Thunderstorms with rain and hail are expected over Makkah, Al Baha, Asir, and Jazan, while fog and light showers may form overnight and in the early morning across these areas and parts of northern the Kingdom. Dusty and gusty winds are forecast across the Northern Borders, AlJouf, Riyadh, Qassim, Eastern Province, and Madinah, extending to southern Tabuk.

  • Riyadh: 22°C high / 14°C low.
  • Jeddah: 30°C high / 23°C low.
  • Makkah: 30°C high / 23°C low.
  • Dammam: 22°C high / 14°C low.

Watch this space

TRADE — The UK and the GCC are entering the “final step” of freetrade negotiations, with British Trade Minister Chris Bryant in Riyadh this week to hammer out the final details, unnamed British sources told Aleqtisadiah.

Bryant’s visit precedes Prince William’s first official landing in Riyadh on Monday, 9 February, with the agreement expected to take center stage as a geopolitical priority boosting cooperation on tech, clean energy, defense, and more.

More than freetrade on the table: The visits coincide with the three-day Riyadh Defense Show set to be held on 9 February. The Kingdom has been keen on joining the development and production of the cutting-edge Tempest stealth fighter jet program under the UK-Japan-Italy Global Combat Air Program (GCAP).

CONSTRUCTION— Expo Riyadh 2030 to break ground this year: Work on participant pavilions is slated to begin by mid-2026, with the main project buildings following in 3Q, Chief Delivery Officer at Expo 2030 Riyadh Murad Al Sayed told Aleqtisadiah.

Contract awards will pick up pace too, with those for the Saudi and Iconic Pavilions, two infrastructure projects, and a suite of engineering works due to be issued this year, Al Sayed said.

Progress so far: About 1.5 mn sqm — roughly 25% of the total area — has been leveled by Al Akaria, with major infrastructure and network works already starting after contracts were awarded to Nesma and Partners.

ENERGY — The Kingdom emerged as the surprise “breakout” star of grid-scale battery storage in 2025. We added almost 3 GW in 2025, jumping from no batteries on the grid in 2024 to fifth worldwide for annual installed capacity, according to an exclusive Volta report seen by the Financial Times.

“It’s really been a 180-degree turn,” Wood Mackenzie’s Research Associate Cecilie Kristiansen told the salmon-colored paper. Fast approvals, a state-owned utility, and direct government backing stripped out the usual friction and accelerated deployment. The Energy Ministry is targeting some 48 GWh of grid-scale storage by decade-end.

Zooming out: The Middle East deployed some 12 GWh of storage last year, as it picked up the pace to catch up with other regions. Falling battery costs and the surge in solar and wind are doing the heavy lifting globally.

Data point

SAR 16 bn— that’s the total value of consumer spending via point-of-sale (PoS) in the Kingdom in the week ending 31 January, up 27.8% w-o-w, according to the Saudi Central Bank’s latest weekly report (pdf). Shoppers were busy, with the number of transactions climbing 16.5% w-o-w to 248.8 mn.

The breakdown: Almost every retail category saw gains as the month wrapped up. Freight and courier services led the surge, jumping 69.3% w-o-w to SAR 62.4 mn, followed by jewellery, whose spending shot up 55.5% w-o-w to SAR 613.7 mn. Other sectors also saw healthy growth, including telecommunications (+47.1%), laundry services (+44.4%), food and beverages (+38.6%), and apparel, clothing, and accessories (+35.4%). Education was the only sector to dip, with spending falling 19.5% w-o-w.

Riyadh continued to account for the largest share of PoS transactions at SAR 5.4 bn, followed by Jeddah at SAR 2.2 bn.

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The big story abroad

The US and Iran agree to talks — with no set agenda: The US and Iran agreed to meet on Friday in Oman. Washington insists that negotiations zero in on Iran’s missile arsenal, its backing of proxy groups in the region, and its response to protests at home. The Islamic Republic is only willing to discuss its nuclear program.

MEANWHILE, IN MARKET NEWS- The tech selloff continues: Fears that rapid advances in AI could undermine software business models have resulted in USD 1 tn in losses over the past week. Stocks and bonds of Silicon Valley players of all sizes saw hundreds of bns in losses in just two days.

^^ We have more on the software selloff in the news well, below.

Amid AI hubbub Alphabet steps up spending: Google parent Alphabet is doubling its capex for the year to up to USD 185 bn as it doubles down on AI, it said in its latest earnings release (pdf). The figure is well above the USD 120 bn penciled in by analysts and the USD 91 bn spent last year.

Circle your calendar

The AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies will take place 8-9 February at Maraya Hall in AlUla. The two-day event will bring together finance ministers, central bank governors, and policymakers, with the opening remarks set to be delivered by Finance Minister Mohammed Al Jadaan and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.

Keep an eye on these two heavyweight policy panels:

  • The first day will see a discussion on the implications of global uncertainty for the international monetary and financial system, featuring Sama governor Ayman Al Sayari and moderated by Tobias Adrian, director of the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department
  • Day two will see a deep dive into private sector-led growth in emerging markets, examining the role of the state and rising public debt, with Ahmed Kouchouk, Egypt’s Minister of Finance; Muhammad Al Jasser, Chairman of the Islamic Development Bank Group; and Anna Bjerde, Managing Director of Operations at the World Bank, moderated by Jihad Azour, Director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department.
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