The IMF is pointing to Saudi Arabia’s private sector as a blueprint for regional stability, with Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva praising the Kingdom’s systematic shift into manufacturing, tourism, and financial services for creating a level of “resilience” that now acts as a buffer against global market volatility. Georgieva noted that the scale of these reforms — and the push for entrepreneurship among youth — has become highly influential, prompting the IMF to open a regional office in Riyadh to share the Saudi experience with other markets.

The praise coincides with a quantitative upgrade: The IMF revised its 2026 growth outlook for Saudi Arabia upward to 4.5% in its latest World Economic Outlook, a 0.5 percentage point increase over its October forecast. Growth is expected to moderate to 3.7% in 2027.

Why it matters: The revision signals confidence that the private sector’s flexibility can offset a projected 7% decline in oil prices in 2026. While OPEC+ strategies are currently providing a “soft price floor,” the IMF expects the non-oil economy to be the primary engine of momentum.

And regionally…

The IMF revised its 2026 growth forecast for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region to 3.9%, a 0.2 percentage point bump from its projection last October. Growth is expected to accelerate further to 4.0% in 2027.

Increased oil output, paired with strong demand and continued reforms, were cited as reasons for the upward revision and current momentum in the Middle East and Central Asia, the report said. It also comes against the backdrop of more steady global growth, with its forecast for the global economy also bumped up by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%.

The forecast makes the IMF among the most bullish on MENA, with BMI forecasting a 3.6% growth clip for the region this year, up from 3% in 2025, while the World Bank penciled in 3.7% growth for the region.

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