Good morning, ladies and gents. We hope at least a handful of you out there are enjoying a quiet week as we race toward New Year’s Eve.

We lead this morning with a deep dive into the clashing narratives on oil market forecasts for 2026. Opec seems to think producers are firmly in control, demand is robust, supply cuts are working, and the market can absorb a cautious return of barrels. Meanwhile, the IEA says demand is faltering, and an oil flood is looming. We unpack what each scenario means for traders, and what signals to watch for.

ALSO- Our banks remained resilient in the face of headwinds this year, although tight liquidity is expected to put a damper on loan growth in 2026. Let’s dive in.

WEATHER- A haze of dust and sand is forecast to blanket the Eastern Region, Hail, Al Jouf, and Tabuk, reducing visibility across the northern belt. Meanwhile, winds are expected to sweep through AlUla, Al Qassim, and Al Kharj, with light showers to fall over Aseer, Makkah, Al Baha, and Jazan.

  • Riyadh: 21°C high / 13°C low.
  • Jeddah: 28°C high / 20°C low.
  • Makkah: 29°C high / 20°C low.
  • Dammam: 24°C high / 14°C low.

Watch this space

PRIVATIZATION — Taif is the next stop in the plan for privatizing the Kingdom’s airports. The National Center for Privatization (NCP) and Matarat Holding announced that several leading global consortia are in the running for the new Taif International Airport development project.

Who’s in the running?

  • Turkey’s Kalyon İnşaat is partnering with Al Bawani Capital for one of the bids;
  • Mada International Holding joining forces with Turkey’s TAV Airports;
  • A third consortium brings together Tamasuk and Bengaluru International Airport;
  • Vision Invest, Asyad, and Dublin-based daa International are putting in a joint bid;
  • New Delhi-based GMR qualified as a standalone company.

The new airport — which will be located 21 km from the existing Taif Airport — will follow a Build-Transfer-Operate (BTO) model for a 30-year concession and targets a handling capacity of 2.5 mn passengers by 2030.

The blueprint: The Tibah Consortium (Al Rajhi Holding + TAV Airports) provided the proof of concept that privately run local airports are good for business, after they successfully tripled capacity to 9.4 mn passengers at Prince Mohammed bin Abdulaziz International Airport since they took over in 2012.

REMEMBER- We’re waiting on the Abha International Airport concession to be awarded within three months. The winner will finance and build the infrastructure to take the airport’s capacity from 1.5 mn to 13 mn passengers over three phases. Qassim and Hail airports are also reportedly next in line.

REAL ESTATE — Riyadh rent freeze is now in force: Landlords will have a 10-day grace period to rectify rent violations once notified by the Real Estate General Authority (Rega), under new regs published in Umm Al Qura earlier this week. Failure to comply can result in fines equivalent to one year’s total rent.

What are the violations? Upping the rent for current tenants when renewing their contract, increasing the rent for future tenants compared to the last contract for vacant properties, or failing to register contracts on the Ejar platform. Refusing to renew contracts and demanding tenants to vacate will also prompt Rega to intervene.

Why it matters: Rega is digitizing enforcement, as it now has the mandate to manually overwrite the lease agreement within the Ejar platform to reflect the fair price, or renew contracts in case landlords hold out.

BACKGROUND- The five-year rent freeze in the capital — introduced earlier this year — is a bid to control spiraling inflation in rent prices. Apartment rents jumped 15% in the first half of the year, while villa rates climbed 8%.

Briefly noted

Al Nassr FC is the first club in the Roshn Saudi League to win its 10th consecutive opening match. The club beat Al Okhdood 3-0, with Cristiano Ronaldo scoring a brace. Al Nassr will play against Ettifaq away from home tomorrow.

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The big story abroad

With a holiday-shortened business week yet to begin in the west, the global business press is once again going long on geopolitics, offering deep dives into inconclusive talks yesterday between US President Donald Trump and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Trump called the talks to end the war in Ukraine “excellent” and said they had made “a lot of progress.” Zelensky was less enthusiastic.

We’ll see as the day wears on whether the Santa rally in equities continues… Asian markets opened mixed this morning.

…but commodities are doing well: Silver rallied to a record high north of USD 80 per ounce, gold edged higher, and Brent crude poked above USD 61. You can thank geopolitical tensions, a weaker USD, and Beijing making all the right noises about supporting domestic growth in 2026.

With news sparse, there’s lots of stocktaking about 2025 — and looking ahead to 2026 and beyond — if you’re in the mood:

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