Wall Street banks expect Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit to remain wider than its expected 3.3% of GDP in 2026, after a year of heavy spending and record bond issuance to fund major infrastructure projects, Bloomberg reports, citing analysts at Goldman Sachs and Bank of America. Goldman Sachs projects the deficit at 6% next year — even higher than 2025’s estimated 5.3% — implying another USD 25 bn in international borrowing, while Bank of America puts the shortfall at around 5%.

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Government banks on revenue recovery: The government says revenues will rebound on the back of a strong non-oil economy and higher oil output following Opec+ agreements, and it has already slowed some Vision 2030 megaproject spending to prevent overheating.

But analysts flag oil price constraints: Foreign analysts remain unconvinced, pointing to Brent crude near USD 63 / bbl — far below the roughly USD 100 price that Bloomberg Economics says Saudi Arabia needs to balance its budget.

Borrowing set to stay elevated: Riyadh has issued about USD 20 bn in foreign currency bonds this year — just shy of a record — and Finance Minister Mohammed Al Jadaan signaled the Kingdom will continue to borrow rather than draw down reserves during the unveiling of the 2026 Budget. With debt at roughly 30% of GDP, Saudi Arabia plans to diversify funding through syndicated loans and Asian investors to avoid higher borrowing costs.

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